Churchill Downs - 5/3-4

race 6

3 WP

5/1 ml.  recency, late speed, pattern, pace, stamina.  obviously taking a bit of a shot and need to beat the 4, 5, and maybe the 2.  none of those are invincible in my view.  this gal looks very fit and ready while also well rested sitting on four snappy and stamina building drills since her last chasing a horse that would likely crush this field.  like the little break and last two drills being strong 6F moves on a synthetic in inglewood and now jumps back on the dirt.  improved substantially jumping on dirt but also like how she has handled soft and firm turf and the main track.  should sit a stalk and pounce trip looking for rosario to put her nose right up there from the quarter pole home and find out if she is good enough.  8.5F a nice distance for her in my view.  figs are right there if she fires again.  don't see anyone making a huge move from off the pace i'm expecting a duel down the lane another reason why I see rosario going early here.  1.0 units. 

always new faces this weekend.  nothing i use can't be found in Formulator.  generally i fade almost all chalk and use what is shown below adaptng it to the particular circumstances of the current race.  yes i see who the fav is and why and yes i might play it but most of the time the risk/reward does not justify a play on the chalk.  yes i absolutely use speed figures and feel they are a tremendous tool if you use them the correct way.  comes down to decision making and what value you can scrape away from those greedy players.  can't complain i suppose with this year so far but been way too inconsistent so make of that what you will.  good luck to all.

Recency

Late Speed

Pattern

Speed/Pace/Stamina/Class/Distance/Surface

J/T Combo

Breeding (if applicable)

race 7

leaning towards passing right now.  little juice on the lawn and i can only toss six of the eleven.  none of them show an edge that makes sense given their expected odds that I can find as of now.  probably pass but we'll see.  obviously the 9 and 10 will attract a lot of attention. 

race 8

3 WP

8/1 ml.  recency, pattern.  i can toss a few of these and none of them look like 7/8ths is where they will pop their highest ever.  i see just like everyone else the 14 looks pretty tough but willing to fade.  like the 2nd off the bench here and two wins in louisville last year.  like her last showing huge improvement and the comments "got thru rail, strongly" along with her 3/3 record shows me she fights and wants to win.  tough distance and a big field size but she's fit and coming into this the right way in my view.  generally skeptical of oaklawn and fair grounds but rolling the dice here her last was pretty solid.  j/t sizzle together and skipper solid 2nd off as well.  i'll give her a shot knowing that the distance could really make this chaotic but nobody shows an overpowering late speed/stamina combo in this crew.  0.75 units. 

race 9

8 WP

4/1 ml.  pattern, speed, distance, J/T combo.  skipper breaks this guy away and can bring him back firing (24% 2nd off a 45-180, 23% 31-60 days, and 32% overall on dirt).  last three show noticeable improvement over bulk of his 3YO season and 2YO season and he ran into a pretty tough cookie last two.  i don't know for sure but i can't rule out we have not yet seen his best.  three decent spins locally since the last about five weeks ago.  9 is obviously quite sharp right now and will be the chalk.  fig dropped a bit last out at FG but right there with his moves at GP and CD.  doesn't have to be out front but will not be in need of a move from the clouds either.  i'll try him.  0.75 units. 

i'll post race 10 and race 11 later today. 

race 10 - still mulling this one over.  one bomb here might run today i want to see if that is the case.  looking at this race i see a lot of potential variance. to me at least doesn't look like anyone runs consistent figs that are clearly better than the others.  add that to a big field size, turf, turf that probably is at least a little wet, and you have a recipe for some variance. 

couple examples:

1 - popped a nice fig first time around two turns.  but, it was a merry go round nobody touched him and despite the fig he went an extremely slow 1:16 for 3/4's.  you trust he'll wire this crew?

10 - certainly appears capable but also quite capable of running up the track.  which guy shows up friday?

9 - popped a fig way above his prior to just miss at KEE.  just a seven horse field and a jock that is insanely hot right now so was it something he can replicate?

12 - figs stack up but three straight times now he's gone to the lead at this distance and crumbled late. 

4 - likely chalkie but has not shown a ton of improvment.  off the bench last out he was kinda all out to nip a conditioned allowance field not nearly as good as this field. 

plenty more questions than these.  interesting race. 

race 10

11 WP

12/1 ml.  pattern, pace, J/T.  taking a shot here in a big, wide open field.  something wrong with this fella off the layoff and straight up the track sprinting on the dirt at SA.  layoff and then he really sprung to life going long on turf.  looks like he bounced out of that very well with three solid drills and a trip to Louisville for a G2.  could still have plenty of upside i'm projecting there is possibly more here 2nd time routing and 2nd time turf.  very difficult race i'll swing for the fences.  0.75 units. 

race 11

4 WP

7/2 ml.  recency, pace, pattern, stamina.  thinking this gal might be 5/1ish with everyone on the planet drooling over that last fig for the 8 and making her 3/5 here.  also a lot of drooling over baffert's horse.  really like the improving pattern from this gal with all four spins (and wins) at a mile or further showing her gas in the tank.  comments also suggest she's quick on her feet showing some rating skills and being caught wide a couple times.  three solid drills right at CD since her last.  lots of zip in this contest some of which might fizzle at the furlong pole and she should be sitting just behind the pace comfortably.  like this one a little bit.  1.5 units.   

little more on the Oaks:

1 - don't see her improving adding distance here in fact I see her falling apart late in this race

2 - i know she's working like a beast but "only" ran a 94 on a track playing like lightning where she beat cupcakes by eight lengths.  3rd career start has to face this crew and go 9F i'll let her beat me.

3 - very nice filly.  very nice.  not sold she'll improve adding a half panel here so i'll try to beat her.  nothing wrong with her to me just don't project her running her career best in this race at this distance.

4 - see above.

5 - very modest late speed compared to others and distance might pose a problem.  a win on this strip but check out the "drew even 5W, all out" comment telling you she had to kill herself to get that win going shorter than friday's race.

6 - interesting.  must be a reason pletch sends her here 2nd off the bench.  needs to improve substantially.  ran a little even late off the layoff but intriguing with this bold placement. 

7 - just doesn't seem to be going the right away and has not improved.  fading based on poor recency and pattern among other reasons.

8 - well if she runs a 114 again this race is over. no doubt she just absolutely freaked that day but she has a few very dull spins as well.  i'll fade her at very low odds and hope she flops

9 - don't think added distance will help her.  i'm playing her to try to take this up front or very close to it only to fizzle late. 

11 - if she improves more could be real tough.  not convinced she is fast enough but hey she could jump up quite a bit.  distance should be ok for her if she fires. 

G1 Kentucky Derby

5/4 race 11

intial very raw thoughts:

1 - buried with a death sentence in the 1 but actually one of my interesting bombs.  lot of improvement with trainer switch and stretching out.  could be 80/1 in that 1 hole i might use in a tri. 

2 - i don't understand how people see this guy as a sexy play or "sharp" play.  doesn't look like he is improving to me. 

3 - he's a fighter he keeps trying but take away that fig from his maiden win and he just isn't that fast . . . . . but there is no Ghostzapper in this field so if he improves . . . . .

4 - looks too slow and no late punch.  tossing.

5 - looks like he is sitting on his best ever but is he fast enough?  blood says distance might be a no go but his pattern says otherwise.  could win.

6 - i'm fading based on distance/stamina.

7 - looks too slow and has run very enevly late.  i'll fade.

8 - if he repeats his last and can get the distance and handle to potential moisture he should win.

9 - did he peak as a 2YO?  magician riding but i'm not sure he'll explode going longer.

10 - doesn't seem to be improving and not accelerating late in his races.  iffy

11 - too slow and wrong surface.  fading

12 - can't figure this guy out.  i think he will fire but not convinced he does well with the distance but i always felt the same way about Mucho Macho Man and I was lucky i tossed him in grudgingly that year

13 - looks too slow and looks like he'll collapse at the top of the stretch.  tossing.

14 - certainly will be out front or close to it.  will be way overbet.  i won't play him to W or P but he might hang around and hit the board or super.  hell maybe he wins but no value and i don't like the figs getting worse the longer he goes.

15 - looks like he wants more ground but surface an obvious question. 

16 - i know he doesn't look like a superstah but RELATIVE to these horses he looks pretty solid.  i can't leave him out of a tribox.

17 - most intriguing bomb for me.  finally woke up, freshened, and could move forward and could be over 20/1.  could improve with added distance.

18 - another "sharp" choice but he keeps running up the track.  tossing.

19 - very interesting but will he need a Hail Mary connection coming from the clouds?  should be passing several of these late will he get up in time?

20 - this guy has probably been filled with more drugs than Lane Staley was prior to his death to get to this point.  hasn't improved going further.  i'm most likely tossing. 

all of this subject to meaningful change i need to look a lot more.

18 -

generally don't play supers.  though in the Derby i feel it has much more potential value than it generally does simply based on the mathematics of a 20 horse field.  good luck.  there's a P4 that ends with the Oaks i might dabble with a $10 ticket that i can squeeze under say three bills.