Competitive field for this year’s edition of the big race in Elmont. I just wish it had 12 horses or more, but most of the eight here will do for an entertaining 2++ minutes. Let’s go!
#1 We the People….This week’s fair-haired boy, there’s a lot to be giddy about. However, are backers going to be pleased with his 2-1 favoritism? Note. As of 9.30 EDT on Friday night, We the People is 9-1.WTP 10 length win in the Peter Pan on this track is most noteworthy, as is the 103 Beyer for the race. That was at 1-1/8 miles in the slop, so the big question is can his take charge at the front end style be enough to go 1-1/2 miles, and, if it is dry? His Pan win and two wins at Oak Lawn (the OP wins both by 5L) hints that it can be done. I choose to toss his Arkansas Derby as the horse got out of the wrong side of the barn that day. My guess is that Nest and Creative Ministry might try to go out there with him, but, perhaps, a better strategy is for the filly is to stay somewhat behind and, later, try to pounce, and for Creative Ministry to nip at WTP’s heels. Jockey Pratt has been flawless with the boy, a plus note. Plenty of closers here, if We the People starts to take on air at the end. If you believe in wire jobs at a mile and a half, go for it!
#2 Skippylongstocking….A grandson of Exaggerator and Curlin, Skippy has more races under his belt than anyone in the field with a lifetime of 10/2-1-2. He took a Sunday drive in the Preakness going 4-wide, then 3-wide, then swinging out, while sort of running on a treadmill, yet he finished fifth. His lack of a solid kick in the Wood contributed to his finishing third. Perhaps the added distance will help his cause, but he’ll need the kick to catch We the People, if that’s the way the race shakes out. At 20-1 MLK (now14-1), it might be worth putting him in your wheel. The capable Manny Franco grabs the strap for equally capable trainer Saffie Joseph.
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Competitive field for this year’s edition of the big race in Elmont. I just wish it had 12 horses or more, but most of the eight here will do for an entertaining 2++ minutes. Let’s go!
#1 We the People….This week’s fair-haired boy, there’s a lot to be giddy about. However, are backers going to be pleased with his 2-1 favoritism? Note. As of 9.30 EDT on Friday night, We the People is 9-1.WTP 10 length win in the Peter Pan on this track is most noteworthy, as is the 103 Beyer for the race. That was at 1-1/8 miles in the slop, so the big question is can his take charge at the front end style be enough to go 1-1/2 miles, and, if it is dry? His Pan win and two wins at Oak Lawn (the OP wins both by 5L) hints that it can be done. I choose to toss his Arkansas Derby as the horse got out of the wrong side of the barn that day. My guess is that Nest and Creative Ministry might try to go out there with him, but, perhaps, a better strategy is for the filly is to stay somewhat behind and, later, try to pounce, and for Creative Ministry to nip at WTP’s heels. Jockey Pratt has been flawless with the boy, a plus note. Plenty of closers here, if We the People starts to take on air at the end. If you believe in wire jobs at a mile and a half, go for it!
#2 Skippylongstocking….A grandson of Exaggerator and Curlin, Skippy has more races under his belt than anyone in the field with a lifetime of 10/2-1-2. He took a Sunday drive in the Preakness going 4-wide, then 3-wide, then swinging out, while sort of running on a treadmill, yet he finished fifth. His lack of a solid kick in the Wood contributed to his finishing third. Perhaps the added distance will help his cause, but he’ll need the kick to catch We the People, if that’s the way the race shakes out. At 20-1 MLK (now14-1), it might be worth putting him in your wheel. The capable Manny Franco grabs the strap for equally capable trainer Saffie Joseph.
#3 Nest….. Couldn’t beat Secret Oath in the KY Oaks, so what makes you think she can win the Belmont? Well, the added distance should help. With little upfront speed, she could stay close and pounce—with the right trip—but a lot has to happen for her to win this. One of the most memorable Belmont’s for me was the win by Rags to Riches in 2007, a filly trained by none other than Todd Pletcher, who trains Nest. While Nest is no Rags to Riches, she is out of Curlin and an A.P. Indy mare, so the distance is suitable. Ironically, it was Rags to Riches who beat Nest’s sire, Curlin, in the Belmont. J. Ortiz man’s the saddle with he and Pletch 36% wins at this track in 2021-22. Of all the horses in this race, I will be most interested to see how Todd plot’s out this gal’s trip.
#4 Rich Strike……I’m seeing little love among pundits and bettors for the Kentucky Derby winner albeit he is currently 7-2. Before dismissing the son of Keen Ice, who was a great horse, don’t do what I did prior to the Derby by foolishly scoffing, if you will, and completely overlooking the colt. Look at his overall body of work going clear back to his maiden win at Churchill, a 17-1/4 length romp in an 11 horse field. How many other horses in this race have won a race by double-digits lengths? Just two, We the People, in the Peter Pan, and Skippylongstocking in his maiden last September. Both won by 10L. Belmont will be Strike’s third graded stakes, so he’s no longer a stakes novice. His two ITM in ALW races is pretty good too. Steady improvement hitting Beyer highs in three of his last four races. Was Rich Strike’s Derby win a fluke? Many are comparing it to the Giacomo and Mine That Bird upsets. In my opinion, the Bird and Giacomo wins hardly compare. Mine That Bird had the rail entirely to himself with just one horse to get by (that horse was trotting, by then) with not much happening to his right when Calvin gunned him to the finish line. Giacomo’s win was classic Mike Smith come from behind passing a slew of gasping horses, including Afleet Alex, due to incredible fractions. The tactics by Leon in L’vlle were brilliant. He saved ground, then waited until the right moment to grab the rail, but almost had nowhere to go until he made that breathtaking move to the outside and in between horses to outpace Epicenter. Credit the jockey to the max, but he can do only so much to put the horse in position. The rest is up to the animal with Rich Strike game enough to finish the job. My friends, that takes talent. Rich Strike is more than a “feel good” story. Just because he isn’t a blue-blood is no reason to think he doesn’t have a blue-blood’s brain! This is a horse to be reckoned with. Read between the form lines for clues.
#3 Nest….. Couldn’t beat Secret Oath in the KY Oaks, so what makes you think she can win the Belmont? Well, the added distance should help. With little upfront speed, she could stay close and pounce—with the right trip—but a lot has to happen for her to win this. One of the most memorable Belmont’s for me was the win by Rags to Riches in 2007, a filly trained by none other than Todd Pletcher, who trains Nest. While Nest is no Rags to Riches, she is out of Curlin and an A.P. Indy mare, so the distance is suitable. Ironically, it was Rags to Riches who beat Nest’s sire, Curlin, in the Belmont. J. Ortiz man’s the saddle with he and Pletch 36% wins at this track in 2021-22. Of all the horses in this race, I will be most interested to see how Todd plot’s out this gal’s trip.
#4 Rich Strike……I’m seeing little love among pundits and bettors for the Kentucky Derby winner albeit he is currently 7-2. Before dismissing the son of Keen Ice, who was a great horse, don’t do what I did prior to the Derby by foolishly scoffing, if you will, and completely overlooking the colt. Look at his overall body of work going clear back to his maiden win at Churchill, a 17-1/4 length romp in an 11 horse field. How many other horses in this race have won a race by double-digits lengths? Just two, We the People, in the Peter Pan, and Skippylongstocking in his maiden last September. Both won by 10L. Belmont will be Strike’s third graded stakes, so he’s no longer a stakes novice. His two ITM in ALW races is pretty good too. Steady improvement hitting Beyer highs in three of his last four races. Was Rich Strike’s Derby win a fluke? Many are comparing it to the Giacomo and Mine That Bird upsets. In my opinion, the Bird and Giacomo wins hardly compare. Mine That Bird had the rail entirely to himself with just one horse to get by (that horse was trotting, by then) with not much happening to his right when Calvin gunned him to the finish line. Giacomo’s win was classic Mike Smith come from behind passing a slew of gasping horses, including Afleet Alex, due to incredible fractions. The tactics by Leon in L’vlle were brilliant. He saved ground, then waited until the right moment to grab the rail, but almost had nowhere to go until he made that breathtaking move to the outside and in between horses to outpace Epicenter. Credit the jockey to the max, but he can do only so much to put the horse in position. The rest is up to the animal with Rich Strike game enough to finish the job. My friends, that takes talent. Rich Strike is more than a “feel good” story. Just because he isn’t a blue-blood is no reason to think he doesn’t have a blue-blood’s brain! This is a horse to be reckoned with. Read between the form lines for clues.
#5 Creative Minister…..Another buzzworthy colt, the third place finisher in the Preakness keeps getting better by the furlong (4/2-1-1 career) showing excellent improvement with each race. Finishing just behind Early Voting and Epicenter in the Preakness by just 3-1/2L in his first graded stakes is a head turner. Sharpie trainer McPeek and crafty rider Brian Hernandez usually have something up their sleeves, and with this guy poised to move up again, it would be no surprise to see him in the circle. While this horse looks to me to have a possible future date with turf, a win here might mean Travers and BC Classic. 6-1 ML. Oh, by the way. McPeek won the Belmont in 2002 with Sarava----at 70-1 odds!
#6 MoDonegal….”Paging Mr. MoDonegal, Paging Mr. MoDonegal.” My fourth choice in the KY Derby, he didn’t disappoint finishing a very game fifth less than 4L back despite his somewhat pedestrian close. He should build on that performance, but he needs to put it in high gear at the end. Uncle Mo’s boy had a lukewarm closing effort at Churchill, which might have cost him a spot or two. With a few good closers in this race, trainer Todd and pilot Irad will need to find the key to his next step up at 5-2 on the ML. Would be surprised to see these odds drop if the NY crowd gets a hankering for his Wood win. Note: As of 9:30 EDT Friday night, Mo is now 2-1.
#7 Golden Glider….This Ghostzapper colt has four stakes races under his belt finishing second (10L out) to We the People in the Peter Pan and finishing fourth in both the Blue Grass and Tampa Derby with a fifth in the Sam F Davis. Combined stakes losses by a total of 27-1/2 lengths. OK, but maybe not today against the top 3 or 4 in the race. Trainer Mark Casse won this race in 2019 with Sir Winston, so he knows the terrain. Problem is Golden Glider doesn’t appear to be of Sir Winston’s ilk, but, what the hey? I’m thinking the colt, out of Ghostzapper, is better off shorter, as demonstrated in his two wins, but Casse knows his stuff and maybe there’s a plan in all of this.
#8 Barber Road…..I thought he ran a very nice KY Derby finishing sixth by 4-3/4 lengths. His class ratings don’t look like they belong here and, in my opinion, his class isn’t close to that of Rich Strike. However, if you study his form, I think you’ll find that the horse has heart and heart goes a long way toward winning. I am going to guess that he will improve in this race, maybe even give it a go at the end, if he doesn’t dawdle some at the start, as he did in the Derby. Note that trainer John Ortiz is taking the blinkers off. Why not? Coming out of the 8 hole, my guess is that they’ll try to get him out a bit and no blinks could help. The horse has four stakes races under him, including two seconds and one third place finish. The 2021 Eclipse winner, Rosario, rides, which means a lot, especially at Belmont. At 10-1 ML, I will put him somewhere in my wheels. Take a good look-see.
#5 Creative Minister…..Another buzzworthy colt, the third place finisher in the Preakness keeps getting better by the furlong (4/2-1-1 career) showing excellent improvement with each race. Finishing just behind Early Voting and Epicenter in the Preakness by just 3-1/2L in his first graded stakes is a head turner. Sharpie trainer McPeek and crafty rider Brian Hernandez usually have something up their sleeves, and with this guy poised to move up again, it would be no surprise to see him in the circle. While this horse looks to me to have a possible future date with turf, a win here might mean Travers and BC Classic. 6-1 ML. Oh, by the way. McPeek won the Belmont in 2002 with Sarava----at 70-1 odds!
#6 MoDonegal….”Paging Mr. MoDonegal, Paging Mr. MoDonegal.” My fourth choice in the KY Derby, he didn’t disappoint finishing a very game fifth less than 4L back despite his somewhat pedestrian close. He should build on that performance, but he needs to put it in high gear at the end. Uncle Mo’s boy had a lukewarm closing effort at Churchill, which might have cost him a spot or two. With a few good closers in this race, trainer Todd and pilot Irad will need to find the key to his next step up at 5-2 on the ML. Would be surprised to see these odds drop if the NY crowd gets a hankering for his Wood win. Note: As of 9:30 EDT Friday night, Mo is now 2-1.
#7 Golden Glider….This Ghostzapper colt has four stakes races under his belt finishing second (10L out) to We the People in the Peter Pan and finishing fourth in both the Blue Grass and Tampa Derby with a fifth in the Sam F Davis. Combined stakes losses by a total of 27-1/2 lengths. OK, but maybe not today against the top 3 or 4 in the race. Trainer Mark Casse won this race in 2019 with Sir Winston, so he knows the terrain. Problem is Golden Glider doesn’t appear to be of Sir Winston’s ilk, but, what the hey? I’m thinking the colt, out of Ghostzapper, is better off shorter, as demonstrated in his two wins, but Casse knows his stuff and maybe there’s a plan in all of this.
#8 Barber Road…..I thought he ran a very nice KY Derby finishing sixth by 4-3/4 lengths. His class ratings don’t look like they belong here and, in my opinion, his class isn’t close to that of Rich Strike. However, if you study his form, I think you’ll find that the horse has heart and heart goes a long way toward winning. I am going to guess that he will improve in this race, maybe even give it a go at the end, if he doesn’t dawdle some at the start, as he did in the Derby. Note that trainer John Ortiz is taking the blinkers off. Why not? Coming out of the 8 hole, my guess is that they’ll try to get him out a bit and no blinks could help. The horse has four stakes races under him, including two seconds and one third place finish. The 2021 Eclipse winner, Rosario, rides, which means a lot, especially at Belmont. At 10-1 ML, I will put him somewhere in my wheels. Take a good look-see.
Maybe I’m just a sentimental guy, but I think this race could set up nicely for #4 Rich Strike, who took to the track from the minute he got off of the van.
#4 Rich Strike to win and place
$20 exacta: 4/5, 6
$10 exacta: 5/4, 6
$6 exacta: 6/4, 5
$2 tri wheel: 1, 4, 5, 6/1,4,5.6/1,2,4,5,6,8
Live odds from HorseRcingNation.com as of 9.30 EDT
My picks:
Maybe I’m just a sentimental guy, but I think this race could set up nicely for #4 Rich Strike, who took to the track from the minute he got off of the van.
#4 Rich Strike to win and place
$20 exacta: 4/5, 6
$10 exacta: 5/4, 6
$6 exacta: 6/4, 5
$2 tri wheel: 1, 4, 5, 6/1,4,5.6/1,2,4,5,6,8
Live odds from HorseRcingNation.com as of 9.30 EDT
Great writeup. I'll never forget Rags to Riches taking down Curling..the #7.. didn't play her anywhere.. Won't make the mistake vagain . I like the 1,3,6 but you're making a great case for the Ky Derby winner. ..I think Mo will be tough with Itad Irad riding. Good Luck Mikey
Great writeup. I'll never forget Rags to Riches taking down Curling..the #7.. didn't play her anywhere.. Won't make the mistake vagain . I like the 1,3,6 but you're making a great case for the Ky Derby winner. ..I think Mo will be tough with Itad Irad riding. Good Luck Mikey
Hey Vet.....yes. This race could set up for the filly. My concern is that she just might not be fast enough, although she has the distance breeding. GL, my friend.
@vetdrm
Hey Vet.....yes. This race could set up for the filly. My concern is that she just might not be fast enough, although she has the distance breeding. GL, my friend.
Best to you, Tyger. Sorry your Tigers didn't fair well in the baseball season re: NCAA. My school was 42-20, won the league and lost in the semi's in the tourney and didn't get an invite. Sheesh!
@Tygermyke
Best to you, Tyger. Sorry your Tigers didn't fair well in the baseball season re: NCAA. My school was 42-20, won the league and lost in the semi's in the tourney and didn't get an invite. Sheesh!
This Tweeted by Mike Watchmaker a few minutes ago:
This inside speed thing today at Belmont is set up to thrive. Jack Christopher, Letruska, Flightline and We the People are all controlling speeds in their races, and all break from the 1 hole.
This Tweeted by Mike Watchmaker a few minutes ago:
This inside speed thing today at Belmont is set up to thrive. Jack Christopher, Letruska, Flightline and We the People are all controlling speeds in their races, and all break from the 1 hole.
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