There is no best time to catch the best lines

I welcome arguments. If I’m wrong, I wanna know.

That said, a friend of mine who is new to sports gambling asked me about this. He said that he heard that when the new lines come out for the NFL on Sunday night, they are “accurate”.

Number one, if they are accurate (whatever that means), then doesn’t that mean that it would be more difficult to win a wager?

Number two… wouldn’t that mean that you should wait?

I told him that it’s all a crap shoot. I’ve been betting sports for about 20 years. You might want to jump on a line that seems too low or too high. If you’re good (and that’s takes DECADES of knowledge), you’ll be right 55 to 65 percent of the time. 

 You could jump on the Eagles giving 6 thinking they’re gonna win by 21. But then the line moves to 5-1/2 two hours later. Then they win by 6. You push, and the patient people that grabbed 5-1/2 won.

Or they win by 1 and all of you lose. Or they win by 31 and all of you win.

All that being said, I know for a fact that if you’re good, 55 to 65 percent of the time, you can spot the lines that are WAY OFF, and a point or two WILL NOT even come into play. 

Sports gambling is EXTREMELY difficult to succeed long term, and if you’re a beginner reading this, bet small to start. Learn money management. Unit management. Give it a year and look at your results. 

And if you’re a veteran, you’re probably laughing and thinking “everyone knows this”. Except not everyone does.

I don’t profess to be a conveyor of wisdom but if you’re thinking about gambling and making money, just know that most people fail. Just know that professional gambling PROBABLY has the highest failure rate of any profession. EVER. 

Considering all of that, I cannot imagine life without gambling. I’ve had highs and lows. I’m in the black, but the time investment hasn’t been worth it. YET.

At this point I think gambling is “in my blood”. I don’t even know what that means exactly but I don’t believe in free will so… there’s that.

I know it’s late, and I haven’t been active in this community lately, but I wish all of you the best of luck, and a very prosperous new year. 

This is very long and detailed.  But it should be longer and more detailed.

The very short answer is yes, and no.

If you are talking about recreational books, then it does not matter as much.

If you are talking about Circa, Bookmaker, Pinnacle then, yes, it matters.  These are what are known as market making books.  You will hear folks call them ‘sharp’ books.

The reason they are considered ‘sharp’ is that they are taking action from professionals and then moving off of that price action.  These bets are reflected in their line.  This is their business model — take a bet, move the line; take another bet, move the line.

They are trying to get to the ‘closing’ line as quickly and as efficiently/cheaply as possible.

This way they ‘think’ they are satisfied they are selling 50/50 tickets moving forward, at the 52.38 price.

They feel this way because all of the professionals are no longer taking bets at that price.

Retail books have a slightly different business model.  They want ‘non-sharp’ clients only.  So, instead of taking bets and moving the line, they kick out ‘winners/sharps’ from the app (simply by limiting them) — because legally, they cannot just kick them off.

Then they feel satisfied that they then have the ‘edge’ against their clients.  To do this they simply copy what the market making books are setting their lines at.  

Most ‘sharps’ are betting based on models, algorithms, or sometimes news.  

Casual bettors are betting on ‘feel’ or something non-scientific, usually.

Let us take the NFL for example.  It is the most efficient sports market and it really is not close.

So, a line opens at -2.5 at the market maker books.  Now all of the retail books copy that line.

Let us say the market maker books stay -2.5 — no movement.

However, at the retail books bettors start hammering the -2.5.  

They will not move the line either.  Because they feel they have done enough work to have ‘non-sharp’ clients.  

Now a ‘sharp’ loads up at Circa, say on -2.5.  Now Circa moves to -3.  

Now retail books will copy that move.  They did not move it because of what happened at their book — they moved it because of what Circa did.  

So, if you want to get down an extraordinary amount at a retail book, like FanDuel, they will not let you do it there.  Because they realize that they have an ‘immature’ market at that time.  If it is just some random client they ‘know’ is not a ‘sharp’, maybe.  Because they know he does not have a longterm edge against them — he is, basically, just guessing.

So, a retail book will ‘limit’ winners while they are copying what they perceive to be the right line from the market making book.

They will also increase limits for known ‘losers’.

So, in theory, they should have an edge against all sides — long-term.

But, professionals can still have someone else make the plays for them at the retail books.  Because they know they are not going to move because of price action.

So, it can backfire with retail books.  Because they swoop in on the -2.5.  Then they can go to Circa and load up on -2.5 — knowing they will move it to -3.  Then the retail will also move based on the ’sharps’ opinion later in the week at the market maker.

So, it depends on if you see an edge, or think you have positive EV at a certain number.  It depends on what type of book you are betting at and if you understand how they operate their business model.

If you see something you think is an edge at a retail book, it may be a winner the one time you bet it.  But will that same bet played out over 500 or 5000 bets still be a longterm winner.  But understanding why market makers are moving their lines is crucial to longterm success if you are trying to catch your perceived edge at the right time.

A good way to see how Circa does this is to look at the bet limits that are allowed at opening.  Then look at how it progressively increases through the week, up until kickoff.  Based off of the ‘sharp’ action early they adjust the lines and slowly increase the limit.  Until they are confident they have an accurate number.

They feel they have an accurate line where there is no deviation from the support and resistance now.

These market making books will ‘allow’ the ‘sharps’ because, essentially, they are paying for more information to get a true line set.  So, to start they are okay selling 5K tickets to get an idea.  Then as the week goes on, they will increase the limits to 10K and then all the way up to 200K, etc.

Another issue is the fact that percentage of tickets on a side does not matter like folks think.  Sometimes they think well there is a large percentage one way or the other, so they decide then whether to bet or not.  This is incorrect because you do not have access to the market maker percentages.  If a known ‘sharp’ bets, even a 5k bet, at open it can move the market — even though the larger percentage of bets are on the other side.

If it is not news, or injuries (mostly to a starting QB) the line is not moving because of percentage of normal bettors on a side.  It is almost always moving from ‘sharp’ action, and you cannot know if this is the case or not.

There is a ‘myth’ that retail books are looking for even handles.  They are not.  They have limited ‘winners’.  So, they have the edge in every single bet they make.  They are selling 52.38 as 50/50 tickets because their edge is now built in.  So, no matter what, their aggregate across the board gives them this edge because of their business model.

Even market maker books are okay with an offset handle on a game at times.  If they have most ‘sharp’ money on one side but a majority total that is mainly of ‘non-sharp’ money on the other side, they will still be content with it.

For example, if you go into the high limit blackjack table and ask to play $1M on one hand.  They do not change the rules on all of the other blackjack tables to cover this,  The edge is built in on all of the tables across the board for longterm edge.  Even on that one hand of blackjack they have the edge.  But they also already have the edge on every single hand at every single table in the casino.

The retail books identify these ‘sharps’ or winners, not by win rate but CLV (Closing Line Value).  Because of the extreme variance in win rate it would take a large sample size to find this out — at least 1000 games.  But if you have a winning percentage of 65/100 at CLV, then that is identified a winner that needs to be limited.

 So, it CAN matter if you are somewhat ‘sharp’ and you see an opening line that you feel you have an edge against and have no problem with the limit at that time.

But to try to ‘time’ it by saying a book needs a certain side, or got too much action one way or the other — so they moved the line — is not a good plan.

You have to understand the book and why it is moving the line.

But if you are a casual bettor, or someone starting out, it really will not matter.  Bet your number you like, if and when it is available.

I am not sure you wanted that much detail.  But basically, a line 'should' mature as game time approaches.

So, if you see an 'edge' early -- bet it.  Because if you are right it will move away from your 'edge'.

If you think it will move in your direction later, wait.

But you do not have to have a bet at all, if it never reaches your number.

these questions are specific to the type of bettor/bet. people making bets before the clock starts are buying a pre set line/odds. but if you ask someone who bets in-game live wagers they'll tell you otherwise. you can definitely find nice lines/odds during the game 

alll i know is t han k god i dont have to put up with locals who limit your action to $300 after you destroyed them with $1000 bets

now i go to locl casion just lil less than mile from home already handicapped games and put money in kiosk take tickets out n sit dow watch the games n cash out winners

nice to have others around me instead of bitch wife complaing n moning then asking you winning yet and the games aint over

@Raiders22

really interesting read man. always glad to get more knowledge about how this whole thing keeps spinning. 

thanks for posting 

Good stuff Raider. Good luck this weekend and in 2025.