Profitable Picks - Guide

I will be watching this system closely 

probably while smoking some dope leaf , there’s no need , to make a disclaimer don’t bother , everyone knows there’s different ways to make change from a dollar , I get it , even a dominatrix gives a safe word saving you from berating her with a holler , so I’ll alert

the whole forum , the pros , and even the average joes , who blow their whole bankroll , then get manic and explode

I’m sold , on your effort and deft words , and any member that doesn’t remember what you said are definitely deaf nerds

let’s earn , good luck with the rabbit’s foot , and attack like Shaq to the rim dunking these savage crooks……

Thanks for posting this UG.  We need more posts like this here.  Teaching to fish rather than just providing fish.

One thing I would add to your post....

Some kind of objective data that can provide predictive results and predictive lines (and moves).

Everything you describe above fits in to one type of analysis I would call "handicapping".  But I like to look at it as 3 pronged:  handicapping, staking, and data analysis - and all three are very important to long term profit for someone like you who is taking this seriously.

I can't tell you how many times I do my "handicapping" part - similar to what you describe above - but when I run simulations or data analysis - it points in an opposite direction.  I like to think of this as "gut" vs "math".  It is always good to have that foundational objective sounding board that the stats analysis provides.

I have a statistics software that runs a ton of simulations, and provides detailed boiled up stats on my dashboard.  But a great place to start for a beginner is footballoutsiders.  Their stats are adjusted - and are a great tool for beginners and pros alike. 

Just something interesting and timely....  My stats model is showing a very high standard deviation for this SB.   It means that while the average of 1k simulations is the Rams winning by 6, the standard deviation is 8 - which is really high.  What does that tell me?  Well, at first glance it shows that the Rams are a good bet at -4, but more importantly it shows that there is a higher than normal probability that the game might have an outlier score - that might be good to bet at alternative + big money lines.

Anyways, congrats on your pursuit to get better.  You are in the .1%.  The 99.9% are only interested in the winner of the day, and never analyze what they are doing or never even look back on what makes money long term.  You are doing this.  However you are doing this is better than not doing it at all.  Congrats.