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    All Forums | General Discussion

    Points of Juice?

    TxCommoner
    hoody
    666LES
    TheSquare
    spockgato
    Participants:
    Search
    Views: 181
    Posts: 5
     
    TxCommoner
    TxCommoner
    Prospect
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Dec, 2018
    Posts: 27
    Posted: Feb. 23, 2020 - 11:58 AM ET #1

    In general, is it better to take a better spread or less juice? Example: PK at -115 or -1 at -110?

    Reply
    To remove first post, remove entire topic.

    In general, is it better to take a better spread or less juice? Example: PK at -115 or -1 at -110?

     
    hoody
    hoody
    Veteran
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Mar, 2002
    Posts: 1921
    Posted: Feb. 23, 2020 - 12:54 PM ET #2

    Are you asking do I want to play team A at pk -$115.00 to win $100.00 or do I bet on  team A at -1 $110. to win $100.00. To me I think I would know what team I think was going to win the game at that line , but it makes a bit difference if your betting 10 bucks or 1000. If it were me and it was my only play of the day and it was basketball or football I would pay the 110 to win a 100. I just think I would have it I my head who's going to win s/u and at -1  , I would take the chance for 5 bucks.

    Reply

    Are you asking do I want to play team A at pk -$115.00 to win $100.00 or do I bet on  team A at -1 $110. to win $100.00. To me I think I would know what team I think was going to win the game at that line , but it makes a bit difference if your betting 10 bucks or 1000. If it were me and it was my only play of the day and it was basketball or football I would pay the 110 to win a 100. I just think I would have it I my head who's going to win s/u and at -1  , I would take the chance for 5 bucks.

     
    666LES
    666LES
    Veteran
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Dec, 2006
    Posts: 4321
    Posted: Feb. 24, 2020 - 2:54 PM ET #3

    Points are valuable and worth it to drive across town to get a point but juice is only paid by losers.Your juice never shaded the final score and wither you collect.Bottom line....cash tickets.
    Reply
    Points are valuable and worth it to drive across town to get a point but juice is only paid by losers.Your juice never shaded the final score and wither you collect.Bottom line....cash tickets.
     
    TheSquare
    TheSquare
    MVP
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Mar, 2009
    Posts: 16398
    Posted: Feb. 25, 2020 - 2:47 AM ET #4

    Quote Originally Posted by 666LES:

    Bottom line....cash tickets.

    Wrong..an_shake The question becomes: "Where do you stop buying points?" I know the OP isn't buying points but lets say, the line is:

    -3 (-110)

    The next price is:

    -2.5 (115)

    -2 (-120) and so on..

    If the goal is to cash tickets, they why not bet a -500 bet every time, so you can win? Ever hear of that "magic" percentage that keeps getting repeated over and over again? The "you only have to beat 52.38% of your bets at -110 in order to be considered a winning bettor?" How do we get that 52.38%

    The answer is this.

    % of bets required to beat the juice formula:

    (price) / ((1+(price)) x 100

    In this case, the "price" is the juice. So:

    (1.10) /  ((1+(1.10)) x 100 =52.38%


    At a price of -115 you have to beat:

    (1.15) / ((1+(1.15)) x 100 = 53.48%

    From there on, you can calculate other percentages needed to beat the vig. That's why you NEVER buy points and always "shop" for lines at different books and anticipate line movements. When a line moves, you can get a better line without paying more juice or a possibly worse line. Obviously anticipating line movement comes with experience and time. 

    The honest truth is that the majority of bettors will NEVER beat that 52.38% let alone any higher required percentage to win.. 

    Take the -1 at -110..

    "Schrödinger's bet." A bet that loses when you bet it but wins when you DON'T bet it...
    Reply

    Quote Originally Posted by 666LES:

    Bottom line....cash tickets.

    Wrong..an_shake The question becomes: "Where do you stop buying points?" I know the OP isn't buying points but lets say, the line is:

    -3 (-110)

    The next price is:

    -2.5 (115)

    -2 (-120) and so on..

    If the goal is to cash tickets, they why not bet a -500 bet every time, so you can win? Ever hear of that "magic" percentage that keeps getting repeated over and over again? The "you only have to beat 52.38% of your bets at -110 in order to be considered a winning bettor?" How do we get that 52.38%

    The answer is this.

    % of bets required to beat the juice formula:

    (price) / ((1+(price)) x 100

    In this case, the "price" is the juice. So:

    (1.10) /  ((1+(1.10)) x 100 =52.38%


    At a price of -115 you have to beat:

    (1.15) / ((1+(1.15)) x 100 = 53.48%

    From there on, you can calculate other percentages needed to beat the vig. That's why you NEVER buy points and always "shop" for lines at different books and anticipate line movements. When a line moves, you can get a better line without paying more juice or a possibly worse line. Obviously anticipating line movement comes with experience and time. 

    The honest truth is that the majority of bettors will NEVER beat that 52.38% let alone any higher required percentage to win.. 

    Take the -1 at -110..

     
     
    spockgato
    spockgato
    Banned
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Apr, 2005
    Posts: 15326
    Posted: Mar. 5, 2021 - 12:22 AM ET #5

    Roid head ,

    muscle on top of muscle ,

    annoyed when I rush and fumble , humbled , joy is something for others oughta shuffle

    dropped too many tuddies too ball is made a butter 

    awful hustle ,

    I’m the fucck around dude , the lost cause , wrong is the way i judge ‘em

    Want proof ?

    It’s the way I take my juice , the laws say I lose but I say fucck’em

    desire to sip , wired to gorge ,

    liars enforce tired “ wise words “ with force

    The enforcement pays a fine , I’ll find you in court , tortured and extorted a cryin limp dork

    stickin in the needle , it goes in with a villainous pinch

    need pills and a spliff plus a little whiskey mixed in to fix what it did

    shivering bitcch

    ice cold

    you know how the night goes

    2 and 5 but with the extra juice you just died

    Lucifer’s ride but you’re too confused with too much pride to rewind and let it subside

    and the chase is on 

    days awake , an unshaven fog , the crater , the cross , make you find a savior to make payments for the loss

    lost , prayin but it’s gone , stay away from the OJ you ain’t Kato Kaelin ok boss ?

    wallstreetcappers craps in his draws and pees fuckin backwards from his vaj with a squirt.
    Reply

    Roid head ,

    muscle on top of muscle ,

    annoyed when I rush and fumble , humbled , joy is something for others oughta shuffle

    dropped too many tuddies too ball is made a butter 

    awful hustle ,

    I’m the fucck around dude , the lost cause , wrong is the way i judge ‘em

    Want proof ?

    It’s the way I take my juice , the laws say I lose but I say fucck’em

    desire to sip , wired to gorge ,

    liars enforce tired “ wise words “ with force

    The enforcement pays a fine , I’ll find you in court , tortured and extorted a cryin limp dork

    stickin in the needle , it goes in with a villainous pinch

    need pills and a spliff plus a little whiskey mixed in to fix what it did

    shivering bitcch

    ice cold

    you know how the night goes

    2 and 5 but with the extra juice you just died

    Lucifer’s ride but you’re too confused with too much pride to rewind and let it subside

    and the chase is on 

    days awake , an unshaven fog , the crater , the cross , make you find a savior to make payments for the loss

    lost , prayin but it’s gone , stay away from the OJ you ain’t Kato Kaelin ok boss ?

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