math riddle...

If you were giving a 20-1 chance at a 100 a bet placed to win 5000 would you try 20 times yes no and why....

One could state less than or greater than reasoning reality there would be exact correct answer but the reasoning does reveal psychological profile. So responses are not nessasary just a topic to invite thought.

More vague but a correct answer exist. If given a 25-1 cards on a table. You were given the chance to pick the ace of hearts. Your card 23 not the ace of hearts was reveled down to yours and theirs what would be correct long term descision hold yours or trade for theirs. In a week a reveal my answer. Feel free to decide for yourselves fellow degen gamblers....

Since expected benefit (5000) exceeds expected cost (2000), gamblers should be betting.  However gamblers don't always strive for optimal risk as recommended by decision theory.  Gamblers vary in risk tolerance and probabilities are estimates that might be uncertain.

What was odds set an actual fair mechanical odds wheel ect.? And not the opinion of betting of those opinions are based apon human emotional hence 25 exact cards on a physical seen kitchen table. As i addressed all responses are incouraged. I have a exact reaction that is very rational .

Yes I would take the 20-1 bet and yes I would trade cards at the end of the 25 card thing (if you're asking what I think you're asking) to mathematically account for variable change.

If I'm trying to pick the ace of hearts out of 25 cards on a table I theoretically have a 1/25 or 4% chance of picking that card.  If you reveal 23 other cards so it is down to my "chosen" card and one other card I would trade cards every single time.

Freaking giving me a headache reading this chaos. I swear he does it on purpose.

My exact answer: once you discern such a favorable odds / position then I would play the game for as long as it was available and such conditions continued to exist.

Hence knowing all factors, you would be given a greater than 40 percent chance to win 5000 on a hundred dollar bet gaining a clever position of trading your first selection with the houses hold card.
By understanding there are only 25 cards in play 27 cards remain. ( the deck was near half before the deal was made.) Again play for as long as you can with the game offering current conditions .

This riddle was to set up a future bet hedge scene that has begun to be presented .
A favorite team patriots or Alabama for.example are now 3-1and.3 - 2 respectively .for a championship title. Hence in the above exaggerated examples can be applied to this example. When either of these dominant teams do reach the title.game they will hardly be at plus 150 or plus 300 they will be the heavy favorite to win. Thus hedging a bet to the under dog team gives you a assured positive gain in investment.

Bear with me gambling is a sin but buisness is not. Thus by equating gambling to minimum risk medium measures it thus be stating I am practicing buisness arranhements....
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By buying in on patriots participating in the super bowl and Alabama participates in college championship level hedging with the ml underdog teams I make a reasonable conclusion I can expect positive gains.
For the sake of wagering I have placed 250 on each that they win it all.... let the games begin.

I am sure some where there are books that explain how.many championships number one ranked teams mid way through a season actually participate in the title game. Hence, a reasonable conclusion is roughly 75 percent of the time. Hence a 75~percent of the time . So 75 percent chance to get no worse than negative 110 odds at wager the hedge once the the other team is to be determined. ( betting both cards).