Unbelievable, what has happened in the past 3 months. LV Convention Center cut many employees and are not expecting many conventions for a long time. SEMA in October, is up in the air and my insider suggests they don't want to open till CES in January. The current casino openings scheduled will be Wynn, but not Encore ASAP. MGM will open NYNY & Bellagio in June 2020 followed by Park MGM (the old Monte Carlo, next to T-Mobile) in October. The MGM Grand is Jan 2021, Luxor Mandalay Bay in March or April 2021, Aria in August of 2021 followed by Mirage in November of 2021. Of course, all will be adjusted based on occupancy and earnings +/-. Red Rock Resorts formerly known as Station Casinos for those that like the off Strip properties will open Red Rock, Green Valley Ranch, Sunset Station, Palace Station and Wildfires. Fiestas, Texas Station and The Palms have no opening date. It seems The Palms is for sale. Not good for Red Rock Resorts, since they purchased Palms for $312M, did a terrible renovation for $690M and now will keep closed. Glad I left my position as a Pit Boss 10 years ago.
Local restaurants that offer curbside food, have survived, but many owners may be closing soon. Having two chefs, a waiter delivering food curbside and a person answering the phone is fine. But, opening at half capacity when there is already small margins will not work. My insider at Hakkasan Group doesn’t think the nightclubs will reopen till Spring of 2021. The days of Rehab pool parties and people everywhere are over. All golf courses are back open. I played LV National last Friday and you get your own cart and there is a noodle in the hole. I play Aliante & Sienna over the weekend.
The ER’s are not crowded with COVID patients and we have not seen major pressure on the hospitals. The Convention Center and Cashman Field were prepared to be overflow and didn’t need to be set up. Valley Health Systems which operates Summerlin, Centennial, Henderson, Spring Valley ER and others is cutting their employee hours for the second time. There just isn’t many patients coming in for COVID or other concerns. Bloomberg had an article about the owner KKR and declines in business of 65% - 75% nationwide and it is the same here in LV.
Obviously, there will be a slow recovery. The casinos may only have a day shift and swing shift operating table games. BJ will only have 3 players, Roulette 4 players and Craps 6 players per table. I wouldn’t be surprised if the casinos added a touch screen in place of chips and ticket in ticket out procedures for table games as they have for slots. The remaining employees will go back to different shifts and most likely partial hours and be glad to have them. Lots of middle management will be unnecessary and let go. MGM laid off half of their casino Presidents. I have seem a significant reduction in home prices, but I’m sure with forbearances and other systems put in place by US Gov’t has slowed it down. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a mass exodus of population, since tourist industry and construction are such major players here in the valley. I would estimate 200k could leave. It will be interesting to see how many kids show back up to private schools and the Clark County School District in August. The real details will be in August of 2021 versus August of 2019.
Hopefully, the Raiders and Golden Knights will bring tourists back. As for now, I’m enjoying the very light traffic during rush hour, awaiting sports to start back up and watching for investment opportunities. Good luck friends!
To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Unbelievable, what has happened in the past 3 months. LV Convention Center cut many employees and are not expecting many conventions for a long time. SEMA in October, is up in the air and my insider suggests they don't want to open till CES in January. The current casino openings scheduled will be Wynn, but not Encore ASAP. MGM will open NYNY & Bellagio in June 2020 followed by Park MGM (the old Monte Carlo, next to T-Mobile) in October. The MGM Grand is Jan 2021, Luxor Mandalay Bay in March or April 2021, Aria in August of 2021 followed by Mirage in November of 2021. Of course, all will be adjusted based on occupancy and earnings +/-. Red Rock Resorts formerly known as Station Casinos for those that like the off Strip properties will open Red Rock, Green Valley Ranch, Sunset Station, Palace Station and Wildfires. Fiestas, Texas Station and The Palms have no opening date. It seems The Palms is for sale. Not good for Red Rock Resorts, since they purchased Palms for $312M, did a terrible renovation for $690M and now will keep closed. Glad I left my position as a Pit Boss 10 years ago.
Local restaurants that offer curbside food, have survived, but many owners may be closing soon. Having two chefs, a waiter delivering food curbside and a person answering the phone is fine. But, opening at half capacity when there is already small margins will not work. My insider at Hakkasan Group doesn’t think the nightclubs will reopen till Spring of 2021. The days of Rehab pool parties and people everywhere are over. All golf courses are back open. I played LV National last Friday and you get your own cart and there is a noodle in the hole. I play Aliante & Sienna over the weekend.
The ER’s are not crowded with COVID patients and we have not seen major pressure on the hospitals. The Convention Center and Cashman Field were prepared to be overflow and didn’t need to be set up. Valley Health Systems which operates Summerlin, Centennial, Henderson, Spring Valley ER and others is cutting their employee hours for the second time. There just isn’t many patients coming in for COVID or other concerns. Bloomberg had an article about the owner KKR and declines in business of 65% - 75% nationwide and it is the same here in LV.
Obviously, there will be a slow recovery. The casinos may only have a day shift and swing shift operating table games. BJ will only have 3 players, Roulette 4 players and Craps 6 players per table. I wouldn’t be surprised if the casinos added a touch screen in place of chips and ticket in ticket out procedures for table games as they have for slots. The remaining employees will go back to different shifts and most likely partial hours and be glad to have them. Lots of middle management will be unnecessary and let go. MGM laid off half of their casino Presidents. I have seem a significant reduction in home prices, but I’m sure with forbearances and other systems put in place by US Gov’t has slowed it down. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a mass exodus of population, since tourist industry and construction are such major players here in the valley. I would estimate 200k could leave. It will be interesting to see how many kids show back up to private schools and the Clark County School District in August. The real details will be in August of 2021 versus August of 2019.
Hopefully, the Raiders and Golden Knights will bring tourists back. As for now, I’m enjoying the very light traffic during rush hour, awaiting sports to start back up and watching for investment opportunities. Good luck friends!
Option Trader-I sounded the same horn on May 4th here. After living here for almost twenty years I've seen us take black eyes (Sept 11th, The crash of 2008) and it took us almost 8 years to come back from Sept 11th. This situation now is WAY beyond a black eye...we have a lacerated kidney. With all the restrictions the casino's will have in place It will really be tough to grind out profits and they are all burning up money each day. The limits will be 50% of the building capacity allowed in at one time. Can't see the people of California wanting to come here knowing they might not be able to play. What will be next...limits on how long you can play so others have a chance?
Now that you add the locals into the mix, they will WANT and NEED our money more than ever before too, so they will be sending out all types of mailers and offers...get ready for that. I have really been thinking of relocating as you mentioned. Hope that you are doing well.
God bless
Option Trader-I sounded the same horn on May 4th here. After living here for almost twenty years I've seen us take black eyes (Sept 11th, The crash of 2008) and it took us almost 8 years to come back from Sept 11th. This situation now is WAY beyond a black eye...we have a lacerated kidney. With all the restrictions the casino's will have in place It will really be tough to grind out profits and they are all burning up money each day. The limits will be 50% of the building capacity allowed in at one time. Can't see the people of California wanting to come here knowing they might not be able to play. What will be next...limits on how long you can play so others have a chance?
Now that you add the locals into the mix, they will WANT and NEED our money more than ever before too, so they will be sending out all types of mailers and offers...get ready for that. I have really been thinking of relocating as you mentioned. Hope that you are doing well.
Wynn is supposedly paying out 7 Million a day in salary & benefits between the two properties. I don't see them continuing to pay salaries much longer if they can't open in June. Limits on how long you can play would be a huge hassle. Imagine a timer on each machine, what a joke. It will be interesting to see the mailers that come out. I'd like to stay at Wynn and use their pool for a summer day if it is at a good rate. I'm sure GVR & Red Rock will have some tempting deals.
Bottom line is Las Vegas was leaking before COVID. The Rio was sold to Caesars in 1999 for $888 million. Caesars sold is last year for $516 million. The Cosmopolitan has been for sale for years, the land under Suncoast is for sale, MGM trying to sell land with a long term leases. Caesars in debt up to their eyeballs. Hopefully, the restructuring and slow openings will somehow be for the best.
Wynn is supposedly paying out 7 Million a day in salary & benefits between the two properties. I don't see them continuing to pay salaries much longer if they can't open in June. Limits on how long you can play would be a huge hassle. Imagine a timer on each machine, what a joke. It will be interesting to see the mailers that come out. I'd like to stay at Wynn and use their pool for a summer day if it is at a good rate. I'm sure GVR & Red Rock will have some tempting deals.
Bottom line is Las Vegas was leaking before COVID. The Rio was sold to Caesars in 1999 for $888 million. Caesars sold is last year for $516 million. The Cosmopolitan has been for sale for years, the land under Suncoast is for sale, MGM trying to sell land with a long term leases. Caesars in debt up to their eyeballs. Hopefully, the restructuring and slow openings will somehow be for the best.
If the casino's are only allowed to have 50% of room occupancy all over the venues they will never make a profit. They will run deficits everyday. Can you run a casino with a "skeleton crew" And once again with the conventions allowed to only have 250 people maximum that means hotels won't have room nights available...can you imagine having CES and you can only have 250 people in a convention space? many of the conventions have been cancelled up to and through August already...so all those room nights and money is gone with each cancelled event.
The Goose has a huge stranglehold on the Golden Egg right now...
If the casino's are only allowed to have 50% of room occupancy all over the venues they will never make a profit. They will run deficits everyday. Can you run a casino with a "skeleton crew" And once again with the conventions allowed to only have 250 people maximum that means hotels won't have room nights available...can you imagine having CES and you can only have 250 people in a convention space? many of the conventions have been cancelled up to and through August already...so all those room nights and money is gone with each cancelled event.
The Goose has a huge stranglehold on the Golden Egg right now...
At this point, the casinos would be happy opening so they can lose less money, and don't care about a profit. These rules won't affect the whales so much (private planes, private gambling room, etc)
But for regular people:
1. People won't want to congregate in a casino
2. People don't want to fly
3. People won't have as much disposable income to gamble away
4. Old people, who are Vegas bread and butter, will want to stay away
5. Young people will also stay away until the nightclubs open
Vegas has all their eggs in the tourism/gambling basket. You'd think that would be fairly safe investment, but then I would have thought sports would also be safe
At this point, the casinos would be happy opening so they can lose less money, and don't care about a profit. These rules won't affect the whales so much (private planes, private gambling room, etc)
But for regular people:
1. People won't want to congregate in a casino
2. People don't want to fly
3. People won't have as much disposable income to gamble away
4. Old people, who are Vegas bread and butter, will want to stay away
5. Young people will also stay away until the nightclubs open
Vegas has all their eggs in the tourism/gambling basket. You'd think that would be fairly safe investment, but then I would have thought sports would also be safe
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