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    All Forums | General Discussion

    Is post bet analysis part of your handicapping?

    User854910
    Daddy_Freddie
    vanzack
    maxwagers781
    Midnight1
    ...
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    User854910
    User854910
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    Posted: Jan. 3, 2025 - 9:56 AM ET #1

    Post Deleted
    Don't let the book set the number
    Reply
    To remove first post, remove entire topic.
    Post Deleted
     
    Daddy_Freddie
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    Posted: Jan. 3, 2025 - 11:54 AM ET #2

    But how many reflect on both wins / losses to see if their objective and subjective handicapping was on point or if something was missed?  If not, I recommend adding this to the process. GREAT ADVICE! 

    There is a saying in this game "Paralysis By Analysis" it happens to the best of us.  You have to be selective in your gathered information and not listen to the masses. Find someone you value and stick with them, otherwise you can talk yourself out of a bet you wanted to make. I do STRONGLY advise what you suggest though. When a bet turns out to be a losing proposition, the two excel spreadsheets I use for football do get revisited. Sometimes it's something as simple as a data entry error that throws your calculations off and other times, you'll find out that you really made a GLARING mistake! 

    The one thing you CANNOT do if you are taking this seriously is to cut corners! In the beginning that was something I did and paid a HUGE price for it. Anybody that wants to start handicapping and take it seriously will find it's equal to a second job and it will change your life structure around, so you need to prepare for that. 

    The best piece of advice I can give again is as I stated above, find a website or podcast that you enjoy and use it like this,

    1) If you both pick the same team increase your wager a little bit. (I usually go as high as 1.5 of the amount of my base bet)

    2) If you find that you have picked opposite sides (I lower the wager to 1/2 the size of the base bet or will sometimes just throw the game out) 

    3) Remember that you NEVER bet your eating money and you can't eat your betting money! 

    Reply

    But how many reflect on both wins / losses to see if their objective and subjective handicapping was on point or if something was missed?  If not, I recommend adding this to the process. GREAT ADVICE! 

    There is a saying in this game "Paralysis By Analysis" it happens to the best of us.  You have to be selective in your gathered information and not listen to the masses. Find someone you value and stick with them, otherwise you can talk yourself out of a bet you wanted to make. I do STRONGLY advise what you suggest though. When a bet turns out to be a losing proposition, the two excel spreadsheets I use for football do get revisited. Sometimes it's something as simple as a data entry error that throws your calculations off and other times, you'll find out that you really made a GLARING mistake! 

    The one thing you CANNOT do if you are taking this seriously is to cut corners! In the beginning that was something I did and paid a HUGE price for it. Anybody that wants to start handicapping and take it seriously will find it's equal to a second job and it will change your life structure around, so you need to prepare for that. 

    The best piece of advice I can give again is as I stated above, find a website or podcast that you enjoy and use it like this,

    1) If you both pick the same team increase your wager a little bit. (I usually go as high as 1.5 of the amount of my base bet)

    2) If you find that you have picked opposite sides (I lower the wager to 1/2 the size of the base bet or will sometimes just throw the game out) 

    3) Remember that you NEVER bet your eating money and you can't eat your betting money! 

     
    vanzack
    vanzack
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    Posted: Jan. 3, 2025 - 2:08 PM ET #3

    It is actually the most important thing you can do.  I spend way more time and energy looking back than looking forward.

    I agree with your assertion that most dont do this.  I think it is too painful - or gamblers just want to forget losses.

    Very insightful observation.  The simplest of things like this and other easy implementations like line shopping are things gamblers do the least.

    an_cheers

    Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
    Reply

    It is actually the most important thing you can do.  I spend way more time and energy looking back than looking forward.

    I agree with your assertion that most dont do this.  I think it is too painful - or gamblers just want to forget losses.

    Very insightful observation.  The simplest of things like this and other easy implementations like line shopping are things gamblers do the least.

    an_cheers

     
    maxwagers781
    maxwagers781
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    Posts: 3276
    Posted: Jan. 4, 2025 - 12:04 AM ET #4

    Short answer, yes. You’re learning as you go- I think that applies to many of us. If you’re not analyzing your bets then just throw darts? There should be a wide range of responses to this question because I’m thinking there should be some different styles of gamblers and bettors. Some people might not care for the analysis. 

    Nuthin but a g thang baby
    Reply

    Short answer, yes. You’re learning as you go- I think that applies to many of us. If you’re not analyzing your bets then just throw darts? There should be a wide range of responses to this question because I’m thinking there should be some different styles of gamblers and bettors. Some people might not care for the analysis. 

     
    Midnight1
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    Posted: Jan. 4, 2025 - 11:08 AM ET #5

    It's a must IMO.

    In horse racing, I review races as a normal course of capping as many things can change from one race to another such as distance of a race, jockey/trainer/ownership changes, track conditions etc.

    If you not learning, you're wasting your time/money.

     

    Reply

    It's a must IMO.

    In horse racing, I review races as a normal course of capping as many things can change from one race to another such as distance of a race, jockey/trainer/ownership changes, track conditions etc.

    If you not learning, you're wasting your time/money.

     

     
    Daddy_Freddie
    Daddy_Freddie
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    Posted: Jan. 4, 2025 - 11:30 AM ET #6

    Quote Originally Posted by Midnight1:

    It's a must IMO. In horse racing, I review races as a normal course of capping as many things can change from one race to another such as distance of a race, jockey/trainer/ownership changes, track conditions etc. If you not learning, you're wasting your time/money.

     

    GREAT POST!

     One of the MOST difficult things for me in this great game was first learning how to handicap the "Condition Races" When you see those NW OC (other than) 1,2,3 X for horses that have not won a race since Dec 15th allowed four pounds. For winners of a race since then allowed 2 pounds. Claiming price $50,000 and then for every pound they take off of the horse they drop the claiming price. In this case, let's say $35,000. At first, I could not make heads or tails out of these conditions. 

    Reply

    Quote Originally Posted by Midnight1:

    It's a must IMO. In horse racing, I review races as a normal course of capping as many things can change from one race to another such as distance of a race, jockey/trainer/ownership changes, track conditions etc. If you not learning, you're wasting your time/money.

     

    GREAT POST!

     One of the MOST difficult things for me in this great game was first learning how to handicap the "Condition Races" When you see those NW OC (other than) 1,2,3 X for horses that have not won a race since Dec 15th allowed four pounds. For winners of a race since then allowed 2 pounds. Claiming price $50,000 and then for every pound they take off of the horse they drop the claiming price. In this case, let's say $35,000. At first, I could not make heads or tails out of these conditions. 

     
    maxwagers781
    maxwagers781
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    Posted: Jan. 5, 2025 - 12:37 AM ET #7

    great post. shoot for the moon because if you miss you still land among the stars. 

    Nuthin but a g thang baby
    Reply

    great post. shoot for the moon because if you miss you still land among the stars. 

     
     
    I-Got-5-On-It
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    Posted: Jan. 5, 2025 - 12:25 PM ET #8

     

     I remember a few weeks ago over here in UK it was Responsible Gambling Week thejester  and they (all the sportsbooks) sent out emails and one had a few tips about the usual money management, not chasing, no such thing as a lock etc etc but one thing that was brought up was keeping a diary or written record of your bets and a few brief points on why you bet that team 

    Not only that but to also look back over your journal and see where you were going right and where you were going wrong in the past 

    I used to do this years ago keeping a record of bets in notebooks but now don't have time but I do like to keep notes on certain sports or teams from time to time 

    and I'm actually starting to do this with Euro hockey at the moment puck moneyeyes

    Bet 5 Play Over Parlays and get rich
    Reply

     

     I remember a few weeks ago over here in UK it was Responsible Gambling Week thejester  and they (all the sportsbooks) sent out emails and one had a few tips about the usual money management, not chasing, no such thing as a lock etc etc but one thing that was brought up was keeping a diary or written record of your bets and a few brief points on why you bet that team 

    Not only that but to also look back over your journal and see where you were going right and where you were going wrong in the past 

    I used to do this years ago keeping a record of bets in notebooks but now don't have time but I do like to keep notes on certain sports or teams from time to time 

    and I'm actually starting to do this with Euro hockey at the moment puck moneyeyes

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