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    All Forums | General Discussion

    I'm working on an open source project that will allow checking bets for value

    ethereum
    thorpe
    SportsFan9698
    slamspurs
    Bluefin
    ...
    Participants:
    Search
    Views: 986
    Posts: 11
     
    ethereum
    ethereum
    Prospect
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Jan, 2016
    Posts: 4
    Posted: Jan. 31, 2016 - 3:57 AM ET #1

    In order to gain experience of development in Meteor rapidly, I'm building two open source projects related to gambling. The first one will do what the title says. I have a plan mapped out for it and I've done more than 30% of the work. But I need to hear other people out: what checks do you want for your bets? I'm talking about the type of checks that would disconsider a bet in your eyes; I know from my own experience that sometimes it's hard to let go of them. But when you want to bet and the app will tell you "no" and offer valid reasons, maybe you'll actually listen. Here’s an example with the two most basic checks I can think about:

    • First thing, to get it out of the way and not have the user influenced by the subsequent tasks, ask for a percentage based probability on how often will the event occur. For example: do you want to bet that Real Madrid will win instead of drawing or losing in their next match? How often do you think that would happen? 85%. OK, let’s go to step 2.
    • Input the odds, calculate the bookmaker margin, compare it with the averages for that event and so on. The checks will get more complicated as it goes on. I have a certain flow in mind.

    The interface is beautiful and it allows for events with any number of outcomes and odds expressed in these formats: fractional, decimal and moneyline. For this reason it will also be helpful to people that bet on things like 1x2 and horse races, not just for handicappers.
    Reply
    To remove first post, remove entire topic.
    In order to gain experience of development in Meteor rapidly, I'm building two open source projects related to gambling. The first one will do what the title says. I have a plan mapped out for it and I've done more than 30% of the work. But I need to hear other people out: what checks do you want for your bets? I'm talking about the type of checks that would disconsider a bet in your eyes; I know from my own experience that sometimes it's hard to let go of them. But when you want to bet and the app will tell you "no" and offer valid reasons, maybe you'll actually listen. Here’s an example with the two most basic checks I can think about:

    • First thing, to get it out of the way and not have the user influenced by the subsequent tasks, ask for a percentage based probability on how often will the event occur. For example: do you want to bet that Real Madrid will win instead of drawing or losing in their next match? How often do you think that would happen? 85%. OK, let’s go to step 2.
    • Input the odds, calculate the bookmaker margin, compare it with the averages for that event and so on. The checks will get more complicated as it goes on. I have a certain flow in mind.

    The interface is beautiful and it allows for events with any number of outcomes and odds expressed in these formats: fractional, decimal and moneyline. For this reason it will also be helpful to people that bet on things like 1x2 and horse races, not just for handicappers.
     
    thorpe
    thorpe
    All-Star
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Sep, 2002
    Posts: 12927
    Posted: Jan. 31, 2016 - 8:20 AM ET #2

    Google "Bet calculator".  There are 100s of websites that do what you describe.

    And there is no such thing as a computer program that can tell you whether to bet a game.  If there was, the books would use it to set lines.

    But if it just a programming exercise, there is nothing wrong with that.  

    Reply
    Google "Bet calculator".  There are 100s of websites that do what you describe.

    And there is no such thing as a computer program that can tell you whether to bet a game.  If there was, the books would use it to set lines.

    But if it just a programming exercise, there is nothing wrong with that.  

     
    ethereum
    ethereum
    Prospect
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Jan, 2016
    Posts: 4
    Posted: Jan. 31, 2016 - 10:40 AM ET #3

    Nice username. Edward Thorp is a God. Anyway... I've been working for a few days and the underlying engine is extremely strong at the moment and allows me to do exact mathematical calculations, regardless of the input format. This will be delightful for the users. What I have planed until now is the app doing very exact comparisons between the odds found by the user, the averages and the best odds found for that particular event at a bookmaker specialized in that sport/league (for example Pinnacle Sports for tennis). It can take into consideration the willingness of certain bookmakers to favor a side when they have too much risk on the opponent or to offer worse odds for what they know will be the popular choice.

    I need more ideas...
    Reply
    Nice username. Edward Thorp is a God. Anyway... I've been working for a few days and the underlying engine is extremely strong at the moment and allows me to do exact mathematical calculations, regardless of the input format. This will be delightful for the users. What I have planed until now is the app doing very exact comparisons between the odds found by the user, the averages and the best odds found for that particular event at a bookmaker specialized in that sport/league (for example Pinnacle Sports for tennis). It can take into consideration the willingness of certain bookmakers to favor a side when they have too much risk on the opponent or to offer worse odds for what they know will be the popular choice.

    I need more ideas...
     
    SportsFan9698
    SportsFan9698
    Banned
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    Joined: May, 2010
    Posts: 5575
    Posted: Feb. 1, 2016 - 11:54 AM ET #4

    Value is diametrically opposed to winning when it comes to sports wagering.

    Very few understand this, but not my job to explain
    Reply
    Value is diametrically opposed to winning when it comes to sports wagering.

    Very few understand this, but not my job to explain
     
    SportsFan9698
    SportsFan9698
    Banned
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    Joined: May, 2010
    Posts: 5575
    Posted: Feb. 1, 2016 - 12:07 PM ET #5

    Same goes for stock investment... go ahead and screen for stocks with great PE ratios and great balance sheets and buy them.  You will go broke
    Reply
    Same goes for stock investment... go ahead and screen for stocks with great PE ratios and great balance sheets and buy them.  You will go broke
     
    slamspurs
    slamspurs
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    Joined: Dec, 2004
    Posts: 5717
    Posted: Feb. 1, 2016 - 9:57 PM ET #6

    Quote Originally Posted by SportsFan9698:

    Value is diametrically opposed to winning when it comes to sports wagering.

    Very few understand this, but not my job to explain

    I came in here to say the same exact thing! However, I don't think that's what the OP meant. He's confusing in his post, but I believe one of his goals was to compare lines among books or something.

    Which is basically a feature of Covers!

    Also, it's pretty much a given. If you want the best odds for everything on both sides, bet with 5 dimes. If you want the best odds for underdogs, play with Bovada.

    If you want the best lines on strictly sides with a spread, find the best book that offers -105 lines.

    Your first bullet point would be completely worthless. If X team has beaten Y team a million times, therefore has a 95% chance of winning or something, the line will be adjusted to reflect that.

    When X team has beaten Y team 95% of the time, and the line is pickem, you better be putting your money on team Y.

    Gambling is not about statistics. After you've been betting for a while you'll realize that.

    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by SportsFan9698:

    Value is diametrically opposed to winning when it comes to sports wagering.

    Very few understand this, but not my job to explain

    I came in here to say the same exact thing! However, I don't think that's what the OP meant. He's confusing in his post, but I believe one of his goals was to compare lines among books or something.

    Which is basically a feature of Covers!

    Also, it's pretty much a given. If you want the best odds for everything on both sides, bet with 5 dimes. If you want the best odds for underdogs, play with Bovada.

    If you want the best lines on strictly sides with a spread, find the best book that offers -105 lines.

    Your first bullet point would be completely worthless. If X team has beaten Y team a million times, therefore has a 95% chance of winning or something, the line will be adjusted to reflect that.

    When X team has beaten Y team 95% of the time, and the line is pickem, you better be putting your money on team Y.

    Gambling is not about statistics. After you've been betting for a while you'll realize that.

     
    SportsFan9698
    SportsFan9698
    Banned
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    Posts: 5575
    Posted: Feb. 2, 2016 - 6:31 AM ET #7

    Quote Originally Posted by slamspurs:

    I came in here to say the same exact thing! However, I don't think that's what the OP meant. He's confusing in his post, but I believe one of his goals was to compare lines among books or something.

    Which is basically a feature of Covers!

    Also, it's pretty much a given. If you want the best odds for everything on both sides, bet with 5 dimes. If you want the best odds for underdogs, play with Bovada.

    If you want the best lines on strictly sides with a spread, find the best book that offers -105 lines.

    Your first bullet point would be completely worthless. If X team has beaten Y team a million times, therefore has a 95% chance of winning or something, the line will be adjusted to reflect that.

    When X team has beaten Y team 95% of the time, and the line is pickem, you better be putting your money on team Y.

    Gambling is not about statistics. After you've been betting for a while you'll realize that.


    Line shopping was relevant a few years back, but the industry has changed.  Line shopping no longer has nearly the value it did just a decade ago.

    I use 5dimes almost exclusively.  I have considered opening a Bovada account as they still shade lines towards the chalk.  After that, there is really no distinction.  They move within 90 seconds of each other for the most part.
    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by slamspurs:

    I came in here to say the same exact thing! However, I don't think that's what the OP meant. He's confusing in his post, but I believe one of his goals was to compare lines among books or something.

    Which is basically a feature of Covers!

    Also, it's pretty much a given. If you want the best odds for everything on both sides, bet with 5 dimes. If you want the best odds for underdogs, play with Bovada.

    If you want the best lines on strictly sides with a spread, find the best book that offers -105 lines.

    Your first bullet point would be completely worthless. If X team has beaten Y team a million times, therefore has a 95% chance of winning or something, the line will be adjusted to reflect that.

    When X team has beaten Y team 95% of the time, and the line is pickem, you better be putting your money on team Y.

    Gambling is not about statistics. After you've been betting for a while you'll realize that.


    Line shopping was relevant a few years back, but the industry has changed.  Line shopping no longer has nearly the value it did just a decade ago.

    I use 5dimes almost exclusively.  I have considered opening a Bovada account as they still shade lines towards the chalk.  After that, there is really no distinction.  They move within 90 seconds of each other for the most part.
     
    Bluefin
    Bluefin
    Captain
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Nov, 2006
    Posts: 8485
    Posted: Feb. 2, 2016 - 2:25 PM ET #8

    Line shopping was relevant a few years back, but the industry has changed.  Line shopping no longer has nearly the value it did just a decade ago.

    Disagree 100% it has much more value than ever before.

    Reply
    Line shopping was relevant a few years back, but the industry has changed.  Line shopping no longer has nearly the value it did just a decade ago.

    Disagree 100% it has much more value than ever before.

     
    ethereum
    ethereum
    Prospect
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Jan, 2016
    Posts: 4
    Posted: Mar. 22, 2016 - 2:37 PM ET #9

    I've been extremely busy funding a company and making it work, therefore just yesterday or the day before I've managed to find the time to put the web app up and running:

    [URL="https://filterbet.win"]https://filterbet.win[/URL]

    Bookmark it and use it before placing your bets, in order to get rid of the obvious long term losers.
    Do you have some friends that are really bad at sports betting and would benefit from it most? Is the Dunning-Kruger effect really strong with them and they actually believe their picks are golden, yet unlucky? Or are they the kind that only remember the winners? Since the web app is not very complex at the moment, they will benefit from it most currently.

    Also you'll notice that I've added a method in which we can collaborate in order to improve it. It needs tuning and improving and it can become the go to tool for everybody before placing their bets.
    Reply
    I've been extremely busy funding a company and making it work, therefore just yesterday or the day before I've managed to find the time to put the web app up and running:

    [URL="https://filterbet.win"]https://filterbet.win[/URL]

    Bookmark it and use it before placing your bets, in order to get rid of the obvious long term losers.
    Do you have some friends that are really bad at sports betting and would benefit from it most? Is the Dunning-Kruger effect really strong with them and they actually believe their picks are golden, yet unlucky? Or are they the kind that only remember the winners? Since the web app is not very complex at the moment, they will benefit from it most currently.

    Also you'll notice that I've added a method in which we can collaborate in order to improve it. It needs tuning and improving and it can become the go to tool for everybody before placing their bets.
     
    ethereum
    ethereum
    Prospect
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Jan, 2016
    Posts: 4
    Posted: Apr. 27, 2016 - 7:30 AM ET #10

    The code is available on GitHub:

    https://github.com/Gamblers-United/FilterBet.win


    Reply
    The code is available on GitHub:

    https://github.com/Gamblers-United/FilterBet.win


     
     
    rainmaker1855
    rainmaker1855
    Rookie
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Feb, 2016
    Posts: 738
    Posted: Apr. 27, 2016 - 10:09 AM ET #11

    Good start here - looks to be more or less functioning, but I think spending some time on the UI/UX would be important for getting more traction.  Plus, the responsive design looks pretty good as well (I didnt visit from a mobile device mind you just re-scaling the browser windows.)

    What is next on the development list?  
    Reply
    Good start here - looks to be more or less functioning, but I think spending some time on the UI/UX would be important for getting more traction.  Plus, the responsive design looks pretty good as well (I didnt visit from a mobile device mind you just re-scaling the browser windows.)

    What is next on the development list?  
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