Posted:
#1
So I was thinking about trying something out that could be viable on sites that offer a lot of live betting options. Let me just preface this by saying this is most applicable to basketball, NCAA or NBA, and also football but that's over now obviously.
Say you decide on all your picks for the day early, though the lines may move throughout the day, you decide the correct play and hold to that point, but you don't make any bets pregame. What you do is you wait for the games to begin and as soon as your over/under or spread moves even a little more to your favor of your original pick, say anywhere from 2-6 or even more points, you immediatly jump on that bet and place your wager. So for example if you had over 200 in the spurs game and they get off to a slightly slow start scoring, and the live o/u moves down to 196.5 you then take the over 196.5.
Now I know the book takes more juice in live betting usually in a -115 / -115 type of deal but so be it, if you do it right a lot of the time you can grab it at -110. So they'll get you on the juice a little bit. I also acknowledge that sometimes the opportunity will never present itself to get the more advantageous line saince maybe the GS Warriors and the over 220 never did anything but rise from the tip off. So you may miss out on some plays you would have otherwise had been able to make.
I know that the later in the game you try to make this play the more sharp the live lines will be so the more house edge there will be, unless you are really seeing something that goes beyond the systematic live betting line machine that is a perpetual money maker for the house. So I'd like to say we should make these plays in the first 6 minutes of a basketball game.
I could go into more detail as there are tons and tons of minor details to consider but I think you get the jist of what I'm saying. Has anyone tried this, studied this, what are your thoughts?
(Side note, I currently have the over in the 2nd half of Iowa MN, a derivation of this strategy but pretty different, the feeling before the game was that over 148 was likely but I wanted to get a feel for the game, it looked like Iowa's offense finally started getting it together at the end of the first half so at HT an o/u of 77 created an overall o/u of 139 as opposed to the original line of 148 which I thought could be a decent play in the first place).
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