I am using a simulator to test some NFL strategies...
I get results like 56% and 32 units, or 52% and 21 units, 66%, 35 units
but how do i interpret the units part?
if i get the same Win% say 56% but different unit values.... how do i interpret the units?
whats better 67%win and 31 units. Or 56%win and 43units? why?
i know units is a % of your bankroll but none of that info went into this simulator... i am a rookie (but understand odds, spreads, betting, etc) so any quick explaination would be helpful
To remove first post, remove entire topic.
I am using a simulator to test some NFL strategies...
I get results like 56% and 32 units, or 52% and 21 units, 66%, 35 units
but how do i interpret the units part?
if i get the same Win% say 56% but different unit values.... how do i interpret the units?
whats better 67%win and 31 units. Or 56%win and 43units? why?
i know units is a % of your bankroll but none of that info went into this simulator... i am a rookie (but understand odds, spreads, betting, etc) so any quick explaination would be helpful
Higher win percentage ALWAYS trumps amount of units won assuming you're flat betting. Take for example two bettors, bettor A and bettor B.
-Bettor A flat bets and comes out 6 wins and 4 losses out of 10 bets. Makes a total of roughly 2 units (assuming no juice). 60% win rate, + 2 units
-Bettor B DOESN'T flat bet and varies his/her betting amounts. So, bettor B can go 1 win and 9 losses but go extra large on a bet, which makes up for all the other losses and resulted in a large increase of units to their bankroll. 10% win rate, + whatever many units
Get the point?
A while back, there was a poster (I'm not going to name who that username's was) who had a "troll" comment on their post about this exact principle. The troll had a point though. The main poster had a large number of positive units for that season but an "ok" win percentage (mid 50%'s which is still amazing) whereas there were other cappers who had a higher win percentage but FLAT bet and had made less units for that season.
For me, I'd take winning percentage all day. Then again, only realistic win percentages. When somebody is touting anything higher than a high 50's )55-59%) win percentage, I'm very, VERY skeptical...
Also, the win rate to be considered a "professional" is winning at a rate of 52.38%
BOL and hopefully this answered your question...
"Schrödinger's bet." A bet that loses when you bet it but wins when you DON'T bet it...
Higher win percentage ALWAYS trumps amount of units won assuming you're flat betting. Take for example two bettors, bettor A and bettor B.
-Bettor A flat bets and comes out 6 wins and 4 losses out of 10 bets. Makes a total of roughly 2 units (assuming no juice). 60% win rate, + 2 units
-Bettor B DOESN'T flat bet and varies his/her betting amounts. So, bettor B can go 1 win and 9 losses but go extra large on a bet, which makes up for all the other losses and resulted in a large increase of units to their bankroll. 10% win rate, + whatever many units
Get the point?
A while back, there was a poster (I'm not going to name who that username's was) who had a "troll" comment on their post about this exact principle. The troll had a point though. The main poster had a large number of positive units for that season but an "ok" win percentage (mid 50%'s which is still amazing) whereas there were other cappers who had a higher win percentage but FLAT bet and had made less units for that season.
For me, I'd take winning percentage all day. Then again, only realistic win percentages. When somebody is touting anything higher than a high 50's )55-59%) win percentage, I'm very, VERY skeptical...
Also, the win rate to be considered a "professional" is winning at a rate of 52.38%
The vig ALWAYS puts a negative evaluation on your wagers. So if you are Flat Betting you'd need to hit 52.38% of your wagers. This is NOT easy to do.
In my half century of sports betting the Flat Bet has not worked to my satisfaction. I prefer to vary my unit wagers, wagering more on preferred picks and winning streaks, and hit a lower percentage of my wagers.
Yes, between 2% - 5% of your bankroll is where you want to remain and you will never get badly stung.
Getting back to the point, you must find a way of erasing the negative evaluation whether it is varying your unit plays, or playing small + money Dogs, or whatever, you MUST do something to escape that negative evaluation.
~~~~~ZOSO~~~~~
The vig ALWAYS puts a negative evaluation on your wagers. So if you are Flat Betting you'd need to hit 52.38% of your wagers. This is NOT easy to do.
In my half century of sports betting the Flat Bet has not worked to my satisfaction. I prefer to vary my unit wagers, wagering more on preferred picks and winning streaks, and hit a lower percentage of my wagers.
Yes, between 2% - 5% of your bankroll is where you want to remain and you will never get badly stung.
Getting back to the point, you must find a way of erasing the negative evaluation whether it is varying your unit plays, or playing small + money Dogs, or whatever, you MUST do something to escape that negative evaluation.
Unit Management overpowers winning % The ideology of
perpetually flat betting sports will get you nowhere (numerous valued alternatives) to use flat betting as a tool of rating ones success in handicapping sports; based on a FB winning % would be considered 'illogical'
the best to you in your quest....
Unit Management overpowers winning % The ideology of
perpetually flat betting sports will get you nowhere (numerous valued alternatives) to use flat betting as a tool of rating ones success in handicapping sports; based on a FB winning % would be considered 'illogical'
thanks Goose, what do you mean by "negative evaluation", a losing streak or losing %?
Playing a "negative evaluation" game means the bookie or casino has an advantage in the game.
In Sports Gambling the bookie has an advantage with his vig. Therefore you are playing a negative evaluation game.
If you are playing Blackjack at the casino the house has about a 1.5% advantage over the players so therefore you are playing a negative evaluation game.
Hope that helps.
~~~~~ZOSO~~~~~
Quote Originally Posted by ilcaa72:
thanks Goose, what do you mean by "negative evaluation", a losing streak or losing %?
Playing a "negative evaluation" game means the bookie or casino has an advantage in the game.
In Sports Gambling the bookie has an advantage with his vig. Therefore you are playing a negative evaluation game.
If you are playing Blackjack at the casino the house has about a 1.5% advantage over the players so therefore you are playing a negative evaluation game.
Win percentage is what matters. If you bet with an imaginary bankroll, you can win any number of units you want. All you have to do is double your bet size every time you lose.
In the real world with a real bankroll, this doesn't work because eventually you will lose 10+ games in a row and you go broke. This is called the Martingale system.
Win percentage is what matters. If you bet with an imaginary bankroll, you can win any number of units you want. All you have to do is double your bet size every time you lose.
In the real world with a real bankroll, this doesn't work because eventually you will lose 10+ games in a row and you go broke. This is called the Martingale system.
then how do i evaluate a system that produces61% wins and 40 unitsvs54% wins and 48 unitsin these scenerios, what does the 40 and 48 units mean?is there a mathematical formula to evaluate systems based on these 2 values?
If your system can produce those numbers, I think what really matters here is the size of your bankroll, kid! If you can produce +40 to +48 units (Say in a years worth of games), that can possibly mean: $400 to $480 on $10 per unit, $4,000 to $4,800 on $100 per unit, $40,000 $48,000 on $1,000 per unit or $400,000 $480,000 on $10,000 per unit, ect!
Quote Originally Posted by ilcaa72:
then how do i evaluate a system that produces61% wins and 40 unitsvs54% wins and 48 unitsin these scenerios, what does the 40 and 48 units mean?is there a mathematical formula to evaluate systems based on these 2 values?
If your system can produce those numbers, I think what really matters here is the size of your bankroll, kid! If you can produce +40 to +48 units (Say in a years worth of games), that can possibly mean: $400 to $480 on $10 per unit, $4,000 to $4,800 on $100 per unit, $40,000 $48,000 on $1,000 per unit or $400,000 $480,000 on $10,000 per unit, ect!
and hopefully this answered your question...
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