I am a registered Republican and I put a couple thousand on the Dem's taking the Senate and Hillary winning Florida and Arizona but I was kind of worried about Arizona until this came out.
Details come out in the morning but this is a industry leading firm.
Political odds still show Florida as close, get your money down on Florida or any state near even odds before the morning.
To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Just wanted to do you a favor.
I am a registered Republican and I put a couple thousand on the Dem's taking the Senate and Hillary winning Florida and Arizona but I was kind of worried about Arizona until this came out.
Further update, while this poll indicates 28% of republicans who have already voted for Hillary in FL (33% already voted), thanks largely to Cubans, even 18% of Florida Republican cross-over is an easy win for Hillary.
But more to the point, Nate Cohn on twitter thinks this is too high and so do I but he shows NC as still going 80-10 for Trump among Republicans which means NC is lost too.
As you move more to the South the Never Trump movement combined with Hispanics whose vote numbers are surging around 40% bring states like Arizona (50% already voted) and New Mexico into jeopardy. Any Republican cross-over near 10% means Clinton will carry AZ like her husband did.
Further note, she shows up in Phoenix tomorrow and her vice-president Gomer Pyle is there today and Thursday, they must see something.
God forbid 4 more years of that voice.
But money is money.
Further update, while this poll indicates 28% of republicans who have already voted for Hillary in FL (33% already voted), thanks largely to Cubans, even 18% of Florida Republican cross-over is an easy win for Hillary.
But more to the point, Nate Cohn on twitter thinks this is too high and so do I but he shows NC as still going 80-10 for Trump among Republicans which means NC is lost too.
As you move more to the South the Never Trump movement combined with Hispanics whose vote numbers are surging around 40% bring states like Arizona (50% already voted) and New Mexico into jeopardy. Any Republican cross-over near 10% means Clinton will carry AZ like her husband did.
Further note, she shows up in Phoenix tomorrow and her vice-president Gomer Pyle is there today and Thursday, they must see something.
Trump wins ARZ by 8-10 pts and FLO by about the same. The killer for ARZ was the 116% increase in obama care and other than south FLO Trump is killing her everywhere else in the state and the black vote is down sig. there also. Bookmakers odds have dropped to even in FLO as of yesterday which is a gift for Trumpers and ARZ is almost a 2-1 Trump fav. + all of this is on top of if Hillary is elected the country may have to go through a con. legal crisis--possible impeachment ect. distractions distractions distractions---no thanks as the polls taken during and after the new email situation are showing and the main stream polls are 6-9 pts. off anyway and that goes for most state polls too as Trump showed in the primaries almost everytime out performing them by at least that number and more and its only common sense that wikileaks is saving the best or worst for Hillary for last.
Hedge out man its not too late--take a small loss. I have done it many times ingame and at halftime and it feels great after the fact.
Trump wins ARZ by 8-10 pts and FLO by about the same. The killer for ARZ was the 116% increase in obama care and other than south FLO Trump is killing her everywhere else in the state and the black vote is down sig. there also. Bookmakers odds have dropped to even in FLO as of yesterday which is a gift for Trumpers and ARZ is almost a 2-1 Trump fav. + all of this is on top of if Hillary is elected the country may have to go through a con. legal crisis--possible impeachment ect. distractions distractions distractions---no thanks as the polls taken during and after the new email situation are showing and the main stream polls are 6-9 pts. off anyway and that goes for most state polls too as Trump showed in the primaries almost everytime out performing them by at least that number and more and its only common sense that wikileaks is saving the best or worst for Hillary for last.
Hedge out man its not too late--take a small loss. I have done it many times ingame and at halftime and it feels great after the fact.
Florida is -120 for Dems on Heritage. So Trump is the underdog.
If Republican like Bush and others are defecting at greater than they did for Romney such as last night's poll suggest, then it's all over.
Other polls such as Monmouth University which has Hillary up 10 in AZ among people that already voted suggest Rep defections as well. Polls don't know who is going to show up, they just assume what happened in 2012 will happen again and weight accordingly.
In AZ women voted 51-49 in 2012 but in 2016 it is 54 to 46.
Florida has voted democratic twice now and in 2016 turnout among hispanics are 4% more, whites are 5% less, and blacks are 1% less of the electorate than 2012.
All point to a changing demographic base favoring Democrats, Same in GA, TX, and AZ as hispanics grow and people move from NJ to FL or CA to AZ, these states are becoming more Democratic just as the Midwest such as in MN are becoming Republican. Each election the electorate is becoming 2% less white and no President has been elected this century without winning at least 40% of the hispanic vote which Bush did twice.
It's not my fault you ignored the 3 guys (Bush, Cruz, and Rubio) that all spoke fluent Spanish.
Florida is -120 for Dems on Heritage. So Trump is the underdog.
If Republican like Bush and others are defecting at greater than they did for Romney such as last night's poll suggest, then it's all over.
Other polls such as Monmouth University which has Hillary up 10 in AZ among people that already voted suggest Rep defections as well. Polls don't know who is going to show up, they just assume what happened in 2012 will happen again and weight accordingly.
In AZ women voted 51-49 in 2012 but in 2016 it is 54 to 46.
Florida has voted democratic twice now and in 2016 turnout among hispanics are 4% more, whites are 5% less, and blacks are 1% less of the electorate than 2012.
All point to a changing demographic base favoring Democrats, Same in GA, TX, and AZ as hispanics grow and people move from NJ to FL or CA to AZ, these states are becoming more Democratic just as the Midwest such as in MN are becoming Republican. Each election the electorate is becoming 2% less white and no President has been elected this century without winning at least 40% of the hispanic vote which Bush did twice.
It's not my fault you ignored the 3 guys (Bush, Cruz, and Rubio) that all spoke fluent Spanish.
Monmouth is worse than CNN for left leaning polling and that saying something. Well the bettors did not get your memo on ARZ as the odds have almost doubled the last 2.5 days to -251 at bookmaker. If you still feel that strong about ARZ going D. i suggest you wait till monday when they will prob. be at -400 so you get around +300 on the comeback. Its too late to hedge now with a cavilcade of Trump money across the board state and gen. but you never know Trump got a break with the FBI maybe another vulger or worse Trump thing will show up and Hillary can stop the bleeding cause without that and Trump remaining passive non confrontational at his rallies--Hillary is more than likely to lose this.
Flo is still even so you can split but thats trending Trump also but not as much obv.
Get your money back on the Saints -3 or 3.5 in SF on Sunday before all this happens--its the biggest gift this year in the NFL.
Anyway GL
Monmouth is worse than CNN for left leaning polling and that saying something. Well the bettors did not get your memo on ARZ as the odds have almost doubled the last 2.5 days to -251 at bookmaker. If you still feel that strong about ARZ going D. i suggest you wait till monday when they will prob. be at -400 so you get around +300 on the comeback. Its too late to hedge now with a cavilcade of Trump money across the board state and gen. but you never know Trump got a break with the FBI maybe another vulger or worse Trump thing will show up and Hillary can stop the bleeding cause without that and Trump remaining passive non confrontational at his rallies--Hillary is more than likely to lose this.
Flo is still even so you can split but thats trending Trump also but not as much obv.
Get your money back on the Saints -3 or 3.5 in SF on Sunday before all this happens--its the biggest gift this year in the NFL.
First I must point out that polling can be biased but early voting polling is less so because it is based on who actually voted, so unlike exit polling it is cross-checked with county received actual ballot data detailing party, race, gender, etc.to eliminate bias.
Each night this information is released all over the country.
Over 50% of the Florida vote is in and Clinton leads among those early voters.
I'm only looking at polls of early voters as they are more accurate than the polls and you can data model how the vote will move based on prior elections. For example, Dem lead in NC but lose that lead as the election progresses unless they have a big enough lead.
By election day 60%+ of the vote will be in in FL and close to 70%+ in AZ where 83% of the hispanics plan on voting. Polls will continue to underestimate the hispanic vote. For every phone call to one 60+ white woman, it takes 300 calls to reach a younger hispanic.
Don't forget about Alaska which is close. They're voting like mad up there and no one is paying attention.Big turnout isn't good for Trump as he does much better among likely voters and almost all the swing states show Clinton leading among non-likely voters who are turning out this time.
Rasmussen shows this clearly as Trump leads by 10 for likely voters but is tied for those less likely.
First I must point out that polling can be biased but early voting polling is less so because it is based on who actually voted, so unlike exit polling it is cross-checked with county received actual ballot data detailing party, race, gender, etc.to eliminate bias.
Each night this information is released all over the country.
Over 50% of the Florida vote is in and Clinton leads among those early voters.
I'm only looking at polls of early voters as they are more accurate than the polls and you can data model how the vote will move based on prior elections. For example, Dem lead in NC but lose that lead as the election progresses unless they have a big enough lead.
By election day 60%+ of the vote will be in in FL and close to 70%+ in AZ where 83% of the hispanics plan on voting. Polls will continue to underestimate the hispanic vote. For every phone call to one 60+ white woman, it takes 300 calls to reach a younger hispanic.
Don't forget about Alaska which is close. They're voting like mad up there and no one is paying attention.Big turnout isn't good for Trump as he does much better among likely voters and almost all the swing states show Clinton leading among non-likely voters who are turning out this time.
Rasmussen shows this clearly as Trump leads by 10 for likely voters but is tied for those less likely.
It's ironic that you pointed to the next president in 2020.
I became a Republican to vote for this xxxhole in the CA primary this year because he could beat Clinton.
He's a complete jerk but will likely become the next Republican nominee just as Romney, Reagan, Clinton finished 2nd in the primaries. Historically, he is the favorite to win the next primaries.
He's already fundraising as he sold his e-mail list many times to Trump and the Republican party for 50K a pop. Now he has confidence and is talking about how Republicans don't need to vote for a Supreme Court Justice for 4 years.
By the way, votes by mail are up 47% in Miami Dade county and early voting is up 95% as well compared to 2012,
think that bodes well for Trump ?
Florida now -125 vs -120 for the Crook over the Creep on Heritage.
AZ moving against me but can hedge on Monday.
It's ironic that you pointed to the next president in 2020.
I became a Republican to vote for this xxxhole in the CA primary this year because he could beat Clinton.
He's a complete jerk but will likely become the next Republican nominee just as Romney, Reagan, Clinton finished 2nd in the primaries. Historically, he is the favorite to win the next primaries.
He's already fundraising as he sold his e-mail list many times to Trump and the Republican party for 50K a pop. Now he has confidence and is talking about how Republicans don't need to vote for a Supreme Court Justice for 4 years.
By the way, votes by mail are up 47% in Miami Dade county and early voting is up 95% as well compared to 2012,
think that bodes well for Trump ?
Florida now -125 vs -120 for the Crook over the Creep on Heritage.
Now we are talking--hedge out on ARZ-the Obama care 116% increase was a killer there and many other places i am sure. Worth a min 2% swing and i am being consev. with that estimate---4% at least in a switched from her to him situation. The direct pocketbook raiding will get voters att. faster than anything. Yes miami dade is in the dems hands early middle late voting no matter they got that nicely wraped up-problem for hillary is the rest of the state with a few exceptions like a pocket in orlando st. pete--- is all over trump. She def. can win Flo though-the 64K Q. is there enough votes in the South East part to overcome the rest of the state and their own trump mania wildness and their own increase in turnout. Also flo is unique when it comes to the so called hispanic vote there. Trump will get the highest % of any state with that group there because of the high Cuban content and that will eat into that S.E. flo vote somewhat. I say unless she is up in the biased MSM polls by at least 4-5pts min. going in to tuesday she is in trouble considering trump over performs in the polls by more than that-as he did in Flo vs Marco and almost every where else in the primaries baffling the unbel. biased CNNs ect. of the Zionist media world.
Well good luck i would do a double hedge as i said earlier and keep your eyes on those Flo polls on monday to help guide you. Remember Saints tom. -4 NO 34 SF 13 Easier than hillary winning calif.
My last post on the matter till wed. again GL
Now we are talking--hedge out on ARZ-the Obama care 116% increase was a killer there and many other places i am sure. Worth a min 2% swing and i am being consev. with that estimate---4% at least in a switched from her to him situation. The direct pocketbook raiding will get voters att. faster than anything. Yes miami dade is in the dems hands early middle late voting no matter they got that nicely wraped up-problem for hillary is the rest of the state with a few exceptions like a pocket in orlando st. pete--- is all over trump. She def. can win Flo though-the 64K Q. is there enough votes in the South East part to overcome the rest of the state and their own trump mania wildness and their own increase in turnout. Also flo is unique when it comes to the so called hispanic vote there. Trump will get the highest % of any state with that group there because of the high Cuban content and that will eat into that S.E. flo vote somewhat. I say unless she is up in the biased MSM polls by at least 4-5pts min. going in to tuesday she is in trouble considering trump over performs in the polls by more than that-as he did in Flo vs Marco and almost every where else in the primaries baffling the unbel. biased CNNs ect. of the Zionist media world.
Well good luck i would do a double hedge as i said earlier and keep your eyes on those Flo polls on monday to help guide you. Remember Saints tom. -4 NO 34 SF 13 Easier than hillary winning calif.
I went to my best friend's house on Sunday to watch Football,
(have to wear your team's colors),
he voted Trump and his wife after she voted for the propositions, she gave him the ballot to vote for president how he wants. So 2 votes for Trump.
My parents, 80 years old, both voted for Trump. My dad said last Saturday said, "Hillary's a crook"..
My father in law, who is Mormon, told my wife during my kid's 7th birthday party 2 Saturday's ago that any vote against Trump is a vote for Hillary. Thought they would vote for Evan McMullin; surprise!
I told my best friend on Sunday, whose 41 years old, that I'm voting for Gary Johnson and he almost fell off his chair, luckily we were drinking lots of beer; my wife voted for Gary Johnson tonight after I said he's an idiot but if he gets 5%, then they get national campaign money for the next guy who could do well and end up in the debates; not likely.
All that being said, we're all Americans and no matter who we vote for, I respect your right to vote for whoever. When we wake up Wed morning, nothing will change till Jan 20th and it will take months after that for the President to get anything done through Congress; if then.
Remember Election day is tomorrow but impeachment/investigations begins the day after.
My prediction is Crook wins by 4 and will be out after 4 years.
Already e-mailed Cruz, told him that my wife and I think he's a complete jerk but he's next up. Historically runner-up usually wins the next time (Reagan, Hillary, Bush, etc.); so Cruz is the favorite now.
God bless us all!
I guess I should make a prediction at least.
I went to my best friend's house on Sunday to watch Football,
(have to wear your team's colors),
he voted Trump and his wife after she voted for the propositions, she gave him the ballot to vote for president how he wants. So 2 votes for Trump.
My parents, 80 years old, both voted for Trump. My dad said last Saturday said, "Hillary's a crook"..
My father in law, who is Mormon, told my wife during my kid's 7th birthday party 2 Saturday's ago that any vote against Trump is a vote for Hillary. Thought they would vote for Evan McMullin; surprise!
I told my best friend on Sunday, whose 41 years old, that I'm voting for Gary Johnson and he almost fell off his chair, luckily we were drinking lots of beer; my wife voted for Gary Johnson tonight after I said he's an idiot but if he gets 5%, then they get national campaign money for the next guy who could do well and end up in the debates; not likely.
All that being said, we're all Americans and no matter who we vote for, I respect your right to vote for whoever. When we wake up Wed morning, nothing will change till Jan 20th and it will take months after that for the President to get anything done through Congress; if then.
Remember Election day is tomorrow but impeachment/investigations begins the day after.
My prediction is Crook wins by 4 and will be out after 4 years.
Already e-mailed Cruz, told him that my wife and I think he's a complete jerk but he's next up. Historically runner-up usually wins the next time (Reagan, Hillary, Bush, etc.); so Cruz is the favorite now.
I went to my best friend's house on Sunday to watch Football,
(have to wear your team's colors),
he voted Trump and his wife after she voted for the propositions, she gave him the ballot to vote for president how he wants. So 2 votes for Trump.
My parents, 80 years old, both voted for Trump. My dad said last Saturday said, "Hillary's a crook"..
My father in law, who is Mormon, told my wife during my kid's 7th birthday party 2 Saturday's ago that any vote against Trump is a vote for Hillary. Thought they would vote for Evan McMullin; surprise!
I told my best friend on Sunday, whose 41 years old, that I'm voting for Gary Johnson and he almost fell off his chair, luckily we were drinking lots of beer; my wife voted for Gary Johnson tonight after I said he's an idiot but if he gets 5%, then they get national campaign money for the next guy who could do well and end up in the debates; not likely.
All that being said, we're all Americans and no matter who we vote for, I respect your right to vote for whoever. When we wake up Wed morning, nothing will change till Jan 20th and it will take months after that for the President to get anything done through Congress; if then.
Remember Election day is tomorrow but impeachment/investigations begins the day after.
My prediction is Crook wins by 4 and will be out after 4 years.
Already e-mailed Cruz, told him that my wife and I think he's a complete jerk but he's next up. Historically runner-up usually wins the next time (Reagan, Hillary, Bush, etc.); so Cruz is the favorite now.
God bless us all!
Quote Originally Posted by abcpohl:
I guess I should make a prediction at least.
I went to my best friend's house on Sunday to watch Football,
(have to wear your team's colors),
he voted Trump and his wife after she voted for the propositions, she gave him the ballot to vote for president how he wants. So 2 votes for Trump.
My parents, 80 years old, both voted for Trump. My dad said last Saturday said, "Hillary's a crook"..
My father in law, who is Mormon, told my wife during my kid's 7th birthday party 2 Saturday's ago that any vote against Trump is a vote for Hillary. Thought they would vote for Evan McMullin; surprise!
I told my best friend on Sunday, whose 41 years old, that I'm voting for Gary Johnson and he almost fell off his chair, luckily we were drinking lots of beer; my wife voted for Gary Johnson tonight after I said he's an idiot but if he gets 5%, then they get national campaign money for the next guy who could do well and end up in the debates; not likely.
All that being said, we're all Americans and no matter who we vote for, I respect your right to vote for whoever. When we wake up Wed morning, nothing will change till Jan 20th and it will take months after that for the President to get anything done through Congress; if then.
Remember Election day is tomorrow but impeachment/investigations begins the day after.
My prediction is Crook wins by 4 and will be out after 4 years.
Already e-mailed Cruz, told him that my wife and I think he's a complete jerk but he's next up. Historically runner-up usually wins the next time (Reagan, Hillary, Bush, etc.); so Cruz is the favorite now.
Now we are talking--hedge out on ARZ-the Obama care 116% increase was a killer there and many other places i am sure. Worth a min 2% swing and i am being consev. with that estimate---4% at least in a switched from her to him situation. The direct pocketbook raiding will get voters att. faster than anything. Yes miami dade is in the dems hands early middle late voting no matter they got that nicely wraped up-problem for hillary is the rest of the state with a few exceptions like a pocket in orlando st. pete--- is all over trump. She def. can win Flo though-the 64K Q. is there enough votes in the South East part to overcome the rest of the state and their own trump mania wildness and their own increase in turnout. Also flo is unique when it comes to the so called hispanic vote there. Trump will get the highest % of any state with that group there because of the high Cuban content and that will eat into that S.E. flo vote somewhat. I say unless she is up in the biased MSM polls by at least 4-5pts min. going in to tuesday she is in trouble considering trump over performs in the polls by more than that-as he did in Flo vs Marco and almost every where else in the primaries baffling the unbel. biased CNNs ect. of the Zionist media world.
Well good luck i would do a double hedge as i said earlier and keep your eyes on those Flo polls on monday to help guide you. Remember Saints tom. -4 NO 34 SF 13 Easier than hillary winning calif.
My last post on the matter till wed. again GL
Good call on the Saints. WHO DAT! (I'm a season ticket holder).
I also think you are right on Trump outperforming the polls.
Quote Originally Posted by keven vanlith:
Now we are talking--hedge out on ARZ-the Obama care 116% increase was a killer there and many other places i am sure. Worth a min 2% swing and i am being consev. with that estimate---4% at least in a switched from her to him situation. The direct pocketbook raiding will get voters att. faster than anything. Yes miami dade is in the dems hands early middle late voting no matter they got that nicely wraped up-problem for hillary is the rest of the state with a few exceptions like a pocket in orlando st. pete--- is all over trump. She def. can win Flo though-the 64K Q. is there enough votes in the South East part to overcome the rest of the state and their own trump mania wildness and their own increase in turnout. Also flo is unique when it comes to the so called hispanic vote there. Trump will get the highest % of any state with that group there because of the high Cuban content and that will eat into that S.E. flo vote somewhat. I say unless she is up in the biased MSM polls by at least 4-5pts min. going in to tuesday she is in trouble considering trump over performs in the polls by more than that-as he did in Flo vs Marco and almost every where else in the primaries baffling the unbel. biased CNNs ect. of the Zionist media world.
Well good luck i would do a double hedge as i said earlier and keep your eyes on those Flo polls on monday to help guide you. Remember Saints tom. -4 NO 34 SF 13 Easier than hillary winning calif.
My last post on the matter till wed. again GL
Good call on the Saints. WHO DAT! (I'm a season ticket holder).
I also think you are right on Trump outperforming the polls.
Great you got the saints on sunday and your welcome. I hope that out weighed the tough night here although you were saying you were going to hedge out of ARZ. Trump i think got 61% of the cuban vote in FLO compared 25% of the rest of the latino vote which as i said made that cat. of the electorate a lot fuzzier than most pred. and proved once again early voting means next to nothing.To tell you the truth i thought it would not be this close.
1 last thing-----JACK at home on sunday + small pts.vs TENN and i think/hope that will ease this.
ALL the best
Great you got the saints on sunday and your welcome. I hope that out weighed the tough night here although you were saying you were going to hedge out of ARZ. Trump i think got 61% of the cuban vote in FLO compared 25% of the rest of the latino vote which as i said made that cat. of the electorate a lot fuzzier than most pred. and proved once again early voting means next to nothing.To tell you the truth i thought it would not be this close.
1 last thing-----JACK at home on sunday + small pts.vs TENN and i think/hope that will ease this.
I put the Saints winnings on Nevada which saved my behind.
But I did lose a little but this was a surprise to most Americans, even some Republicans who thought today would be depressing.
Where were all these voters in 2012 ?
Since Roosevelt in 1904, no party has won 3 straight presidencies in a row except for Reagan/Bush, so historically it would be rare for Hillary to win.
Now that she lost, we must repeal Obamacare which is costing me real money and slashing taxes sounds good too.
I prefer Pence more so I wouldn't be against a heart attack in the next year, lol.
Have a good day!
I'll keep taking your NFL picks, so thanks again.
I put the Saints winnings on Nevada which saved my behind.
But I did lose a little but this was a surprise to most Americans, even some Republicans who thought today would be depressing.
Where were all these voters in 2012 ?
Since Roosevelt in 1904, no party has won 3 straight presidencies in a row except for Reagan/Bush, so historically it would be rare for Hillary to win.
Now that she lost, we must repeal Obamacare which is costing me real money and slashing taxes sounds good too.
I prefer Pence more so I wouldn't be against a heart attack in the next year, lol.
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