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wiseguy

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Posted: #1

hey brother hope you had a good year last season
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Posted: #2

Quote Originally Posted by themaceo:

hey brother hope you had a good year last season



Thanks Buddy . I had an opportunity in 2018 , to accomplish goals
that more than met my expectations. I look forward to expanding
on that this coming season. Thank you for asking.

Blessings and Good Luck this coming season  


 
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Posted: #3

Quote Originally Posted by WISEGUY36:




Thanks Buddy . I had an opportunity in 2018 , to accomplish goals
that more than met my expectations. I look forward to expanding
on that this coming season. Thank you for asking.

Blessings and Good Luck this coming season  





FWIW , Bud . Choosing to dedicate the time to write the analytic
on " Inconsistency at the QB Position and Production Probability "
vs pursuing a personal performance goal was the right decision
to make . I did not realize how much time and effort it would take
to determine the 36 data points necessary and to validate all of
them over a large number of trials. But the result of the effort will
be a huge benefit going forward and provide a more accurate and
positive outcome. I'm looking into one on " Risk Management "
now prior to the start of the season.

Good Luck , buddy  
 
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Posted: #4

Quote Originally Posted by themaceo:

hey brother hope you had a good year last season




I started out last season Week 1 with Notre Dame which I had
Capped at - 6 ( posted in another thread ) . I was able to buy it
at + 2 ' , 3 . I also had Ole Miss , which I had capped at - 7 vs
TxT at plus money as well. Both teams won in Week 1 , and
performed very well. However they struggled at QB play and
production in the following weeks . I needed to find out why that
happened. That is what prompted the study mentioned in post
# 3 . I didn't want to get caught on the short end on future wagers.
While I kinda got sidetracked , I found a method that can prevent
me from being on the wrong side of bad QB play going forward.

I will be able to use this to be more accurate in capping future
matchups , so I believe it was worth the effort.

Just sharing the thought process behind the decision .

GLTA     

 
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Posted: #5

FWIW , I'm glad to see Mack Brown return to College Coacing.

In his first stint at North Carolia , I cashed a lot of tickets on the
Tarheels thanks to a Coach who taught fundamentals as well as
team discipline . He may surprise a few teams this season.

Natrone Means running the Ball for him helped a lot too . 
 
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Posted: #6

Quote Originally Posted by WISEGUY36:

FWIW , I'm glad to see Mack Brown return to College Coacing.

In his first stint at North Carolia , I cashed a lot of tickets on the
Tarheels thanks to a Coach who taught fundamentals as well as
team discipline . He may surprise a few teams this season.

Natrone Means running the Ball for him helped a lot too . 






Speaking of Team Discipline . Coach Brown  hired Defensive
Coordinator Jay Bateman away from Army to be Co DC.
The 'Heels also have a good sized O Line with experience and
very capable RB's. I look for Mack to develop the run game to try
to keep his very inexperienced QB out of poor down and distance
situations.
 
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Posted: #7

Quote Originally Posted by WISEGUY36:

Quote Originally Posted by themaceo:

hey brother hope you had a good year last season
I started out last season Week 1 with Notre Dame which I hadCapped at - 6 ( posted in another thread ) . I was able to buy itat + 2 ' , 3 . I also had Ole Miss , which I had capped at - 7 vsTxT at plus money as well. Both teams won in Week 1 , andperformed very well. However they struggled at QB play andproduction in the following weeks . I needed to find out why thathappened. That is what prompted the study mentioned in post# 3 . I didn't want to get caught on the short end on future wagers.While I kinda got sidetracked , I found a method that can preventme from being on the wrong side of bad QB play going forward.I will be able to use this to be more accurate in capping futurematchups , so I believe it was worth the effort.Just sharing the thought process behind the decision .GLTA
All good stuff Wise!!!!

 
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Posted: #8

Quote Originally Posted by LoveCFB1_:

I started out last season Week 1 with Notre Dame which I hadCapped at - 6 ( posted in another thread ) . I was able to buy itat + 2 ' , 3 . I also had Ole Miss , which I had capped at - 7 vsTxT at plus money as well. Both teams won in Week 1 , andperformed very well. However they struggled at QB play andproduction in the following weeks . I needed to find out why thathappened. That is what prompted the study mentioned in post# 3 . I didn't want to get caught on the short end on future wagers.While I kinda got sidetracked , I found a method that can preventme from being on the wrong side of bad QB play going forward.I will be able to use this to be more accurate in capping futurematchups , so I believe it was worth the effort.Just sharing the thought process behind the decision .GLTA All good stuff Wise!!!!





Thanks bud. I've actually been studying this from a defensive
perspective since the early '90's and the advent of the aptly
named " Dual Threat Quarterback " and the efforts of a Defensive
Coordinator  from Oklahoma named Brent Venables to limit the
production of this " New " offensive scheme. It was fascinating and
a very informative to see the methods that he devised . It also
showed the limitations of some QB's knowledge of protections ,
coverages , and the lack of ability to make adjustments as they
could not make pre snap reads. If a bettor can see this in an
opponent, it will always been a significant edge if the bettor could
assess the magnitude of the loss of production. Understanding
how to quantify this is step closer to determing " Value " in a wager.

GL , Bud 
 
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Posted: #9

Quote Originally Posted by themaceo:

hey brother hope you had a good year last season




Thanks Bud.Last season in week 1 , I was fortunate to find 2 plays
that fit both my MOV and WP requirements. Since i cranked up my
WP parameters for last season , I was surprised by that  due to the
strict parameters I imposed on my plays due to the elevated WP.

This season looks somewhat similar , but I will need a bit of Line
movement to meet my reqiurements. Early indications point to the
Line moving in my direction. We'll see how it goes.

We'll talk closer to Week 1

Blessings and Thanks again for your well wishes. It is appreciated.


 
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Posted: #10

Good deal Wiseguy . Do you play many future bets ?
 
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Posted: #11

Quote Originally Posted by themaceo:

Good deal Wiseguy . Do you play many future bets ?



I don't play RSW's ,but I will play on NC  Futures if the price is right.
In 2016 and 2017 I was fortunate to have positions on BOTH
participants of the National Championship game those years.

I have no Futures wagers pending at this time. 
 
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Posted: #12

Quote Originally Posted by WISEGUY36:




I don't play RSW's ,but I will play on NC  Futures if the price is right.
In 2016 and 2017 I was fortunate to have positions on BOTH
participants of the National Championship game those years.


I have no Futures wagers pending at this time. 




If you are interested in reading about the thought process behind
this , you can read about it in my 2017  NC or Bowl threads. 


 
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Posted: #13

Quote Originally Posted by themaceo:

Good deal Wiseguy . Do you play many future bets ?




No ,Right now , I'm actually making a profit betting MLB.   

Looking to add to my 'roll before the season starts.  
 
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Posted: #14

Every season, I mention change in the makeup of College Football
teams due to coaching changes , transfers , etc. which I believe
those who seriously cap this sport should consider. Let me repeat , the " Transfer Portal " has made much of this change a lot easier.
This causes some teams to lose depth at key positions while at the
same time provide upgrades to quality starters / depth to others.

Here is a list that defines the changes occurring for the 2019
season

1.  There are 27 teams with Head coaching changes  in FBS.

2,  There are 25 teams with Head coaching changes in FCS.

3.  There are 69 teams with  O / D Coordinator changes in FBS

4   There are 415 team roster changes due to the Transfer Portal.

     They are Broken down as Follows :

1. 46 Quarterbacks

2, 42  Running Backs

3. 75  Wide Recievers

4. 25  Tight Ends

5. 43  O Linemen

6. 55  D Linemen

7. 56  Linebackers

8. 73  Defensive Backs

Teams will look different than they did last season . Prepare for it.
 
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Posted: #15

Quote Originally Posted by WISEGUY36:

Every season, I mention change in the makeup of College Football
teams due to coaching changes , transfers , etc. which I believe
those who seriously cap this sport should consider. Let me repeat , the " Transfer Portal " has made much of this change a lot easier.
This causes some teams to lose depth at key positions while at the
same time provide upgrades to quality starters / depth to others.

Here is a list that defines the changes occurring for the 2019
season

1.  There are 27 teams with Head coaching changes  in FBS.

2,  There are 25 teams with Head coaching changes in FCS.

3.  There are 69 teams with  O / D Coordinator changes in FBS

4   There are 415 team roster changes due to the Transfer Portal.

     They are Broken down as Follows :

1. 46 Quarterbacks

2, 42  Running Backs

3. 75  Wide Recievers

4. 25  Tight Ends

5. 43  O Linemen

6. 55  D Linemen

7. 56  Linebackers

8. 73  Defensive Backs

Teams will look different than they did last season . Prepare for it.




The important thing to know about this process is that the players
are transferring from " Upper Tier " schools because they are not
going to be listed on the " three deep " chart . They are transferring
mostly to " Middle Tier " programs ,  but also Rice , C. Carolina ,
and even FCS programs to gain playing time. While upper tier
programs lose experienced depth. this process will accelerate over
time.
 
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Posted: #16

Quote Originally Posted by WISEGUY36:





The important thing to know about this process is that the players
are transferring from " Upper Tier " schools because they are not
going to be listed on the " three deep " chart . They are transferring
mostly to " Middle Tier " programs ,  but also Rice , C. Carolina ,
and even FCS programs to gain playing time. While upper tier
programs lose experienced depth. this process will accelerate over
time.





FWIW , That 415 Number in the " Transfer Portal " is likely to get
larger as we get into Fall camp in three weeks.
 
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Posted: #17

Quote Originally Posted by WISEGUY36:




FWIW , Bud . Choosing to dedicate the time to write the analytic
on " Inconsistency at the QB Position and Production Probability "
vs pursuing a personal performance goal was the right decision
to make . I did not realize how much time and effort it would take
to determine the 36 data points necessary and to validate all of
them over a large number of trials. But the result of the effort will
be a huge benefit going forward and provide a more accurate and
positive outcome. I'm looking into one on " Risk Management "
now prior to the start of the season.

Good Luck , buddy  





I'm a big proponent of analytics as the future of Capping College
Football.Bookmakers believe this as well and continue to improve
their knowledge and skills at using this "New " technology.

In BA's thread ( Post # 31 ) , I cited some of the limits of accuracy
to Connelly's work in predicting MOV's and WP on Week 1 games.

I did not cite others . For example , I mentioned that his MOV
projections were within  + / - 7 points 53 % of the time , and that
3 % of the time his projections were off by 40 or more points.

That means that 44 % of his projections were off by between 8 and
39 points. To find out why , I had to break down his projections by
Conference , and then by team. Once I did this , I was able to find
out exactly what were the limits to his accuracy, and why.
Hint : It is something that I have written about many times on this
Forum.

Using Data points to accurately determine probability is important
in in this process. Validating each and every one  and determining 
their correct weight in the conclusion, will always be even more
important. Many are still learning that.

To Analytics , The Future of Handicapping Sports    
 
Legend
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Posted: #18

Quote Originally Posted by WISEGUY36:

FWIW , I'm glad to see Mack Brown return to College Coacing.In his first stint at North Carolia , I cashed a lot of tickets on theTarheels thanks to a Coach who taught fundamentals as well asteam discipline . He may surprise a few teams this season.Natrone Means running the Ball for him helped a lot too .

 

 

Who will be this season's Mack brown ?  an_wink

 
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Posted: #19

Quote Originally Posted by WISEGUY36:







Speaking of Team Discipline . Coach Brown  hired Defensive
Coordinator Jay Bateman away from Army to be Co DC.
The 'Heels also have a good sized O Line with experience and
very capable RB's. I look for Mack to develop the run game to try
to keep his very inexperienced QB out of poor down and distance
situations.




 
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Posted: #20

good stuff Wise!   Look forward to your insights in 2020!  

 
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Posted: #21

Quote Originally Posted by WISEGUY36:

 

 

Who will be this season's Mack brown ? 


Georgia Tech's Collins has my eye. Maybe moving up this year.

Don't see Michigan State going anywhere with the Tucker hire. He was given 6 mil for assistant coach payroll and all he gets is former MSU and CU coaches. Add one from Wisc. and a high school coach. Throwing money away it seems.
 
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Posted: #22

Quote Originally Posted by UNIMAN:


Georgia Tech's Collins has my eye. Maybe moving up this year.

Don't see Michigan State going anywhere with the Tucker hire. He was given 6 mil for assistant coach payroll and all he gets is former MSU and CU coaches. Add one from Wisc. and a high school coach. Throwing money away it seems.

Tucker also picked up Scottie Hazelton from Kansas St for D Coordinator for just over a mil a year. Not a bad hire.
 
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Posted: #23

Quote Originally Posted by WISEGUY36:

Every season, I mention change in the makeup of College Footballteams due to coaching changes , transfers , etc. which I believethose who seriously cap this sport should consider. Let me repeat , the " Transfer Portal " has made much of this change a lot easier.This causes some teams to lose depth at key positions while at thesame time provide upgrades to quality starters / depth to others.Here is a list that defines the changes occurring for the 2019 season1.  There are 27 teams with Head coaching changes  in FBS.2,  There are 25 teams with Head coaching changes in FCS.3.  There are 69 teams with  O / D Coordinator changes in FBS4   There are 415 team roster changes due to the Transfer Portal.     They are Broken down as Follows :1. 46 Quarterbacks2, 42  Running Backs3. 75  Wide Recievers4. 25  Tight Ends5. 43  O Linemen6. 55  D Linemen7. 56  Linebackers8. 73  Defensive BacksTeams will look different than they did last season . Prepare for it.

 

Time for my annual reminder to all regarding players who have changed

teams via the " Transfer Portal " . I won't do a detailed breakdown on this

as I did last season , but I will say that 500 + players have changed teams

this year prior to the season start.This generally means that upper tier

programs tend to lose depth in their 3 deeps which tends to offer roster

upgrades to middle tier programs. This ,along with Head Coaching /

Coordinator changes ( of which there are many as well ) will make a

lot of teams somewhat different in performance this season .

Especially in the early part of the season.

GLTA

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