Why is BGSU a 6.5 pt dog at home?

Preseason Connelly had this set at -11 for BG.  BGSU S+P was 60 (now 72), MTSU was 90 (now 86).  74% chance for BGSU to win.

BGSU replaces coach, QB and many skill players, but returns 4/5 O-lineman.

BGSU gets abused by Ohio State.  

BGSU goes -3 in TO, but still outgains and wins vs ND  (right now SAG has them comparable to Kent st)

MTSU abuses AL A+M (ranked 244 by SAG), then lets vandy and its woeful offense score 47 (in a weird lighting delayed game)

The Raw Numbers are ugly for BGSU due to Ohio St game, and Sag has this somewhere between pk and MTSU -4.

The "opener" of -1.5 seems more fanciful than real, as most books opened it at -5.5 or so for MTSU.  Since then bet to -6.5.

I pre-set it at -3 BGSU, basically a pk'em on a neutral field.  But the line is now 10 on a neutral field.  In the long run MTSU might be better,I sure as heck don't know, but 10 pts better?  This discrepancy between my line and the actual line makes me look deep to find what I may have missed, as pro linemakers are pretty good at their jobs.

I've read just about every piece of local news, and can't find anything to justify not taking the home dog here. (haven't played it yet, FYI)

Anyone have a take on this game?

MTSU QB Stockstill went off last week for 399 yards passing and figures to do so again against BG

BG has been unimpressive so far under new coach Mike Jinks (doors blown off at Ohio St;  fortunate to win vs North Dakota (missed 2-pt conversion))

I think all of this plays into the line

That said, I am with you and with you relatively big on Bowling Green this Saturday

BG is excellent value at this line; this is a top-15 play for me this week

BG QB Knapke should deliver a very efficient day throwing on Saturday as BG begins to steady the ship going forward

Good Luck

BG will str8 up win at home! Ohio st destroy them but look at how well they look all around I can see Ohio st winning it all! Thou Alabama may something to say about that.

In the two games each has played this year I was impressed with how well MT played against Vandy and unimpressed with how Bowling Green played against FCS team North Dakota. The previously mentioned Sagarin rating would have Vandy beating North Dakota by 23 points.

I don't think Bowling Green can match scores with this potent Middle Tennessee offense, but if you like still like Bowling Green I suggest you wait to place your bet because you can probably get your bet in after in crosses the key 7 number. The line jumped from an opening line of -1 Middle Tennessee up to -6.5 right away. 

Given the lack of D played by both, and the pace both play at, I would seriously consider the over, and/or TT overs

FYI: This is actually how the forum works, if it works.