What will the Florida St vs Ohio St National Championship game line be?

Ohio State shares many similarities to Notre Dame.  The main thing they share is their incredible weak schedule - weaker than even Notre Dame played in 2012.  I consider this to be one of, if not the biggest factor in the game.  Let me explain it this way.

Basketball is a good example because it is a smaller sample size.  You don't become a better basketball player by playing against people who are not as good as you.  You get better by playing guys who are better than you.  Playing against better competition will cause you to raise your play to the level of those you are playing against.  Having to fight tooth and nail for everything you get makes you better.  I makes you tougher.  It makes you battled hardened.  That doesn't (can't) happen when you play soft competition.

This is the dynamic at play when teams like Notre Dame and Ohio State have to play the Alabama's of the world.  Alabama is a team who has faced 3 or 4 teams this season that are as good or better than Ohio State, while Ohio State has not play a single team that is even the same universe as Alabama.  The same thing could be said about Notre Dame in 2012.

This has nothing to do with talent.  It has nothing to do with how many 4 or 5 star recruits a team has.  It has everything to do with being battle-tested and battle-hardened.  If the two teams swapped schedules, then Alabama would be the team at a huge disadvantage.  In other words, it's not that the Ohio State players are not capable of attaining that higher plane, it's just that their weak schedule has not provided them with the avenue to get there.

You frequently hear pundits talk about how Big 10 teams can't match the speed of the SEC teams.  That's not exactly accurate.  The problem is not that the Big 10 teams can't match the "speed," it's that they can't match the "speed of the game."  The game is just too fast for them.  It's too intense for them.  That's why they appear slow.  They are simply not accustomed to playing at that level.

No where was that more evident than the Alabama/Notre Dame national championship game.  You could clearly see Notre Dame simply wasn't on Alabama's level.  It was obvious. They were shell-shocked.  All that preparation time could not prepare the Notre Dame players for the intensity of the game they found themselves in the middle of.  Geez, even Brian Kelly admitted as much in his halftime interview.  Go back and watch that 1st half again.

In the 2nd half the Notre Dame players started to settle in and become more acclimated to Alabama's level of play, but by that time it was way too late.  The game was already over.  Go back and watch when Ohio State played Florida in the national championship game.  Same exact thing.

In my Notre Dame write up I said that unless Notre Dame was going to scrimmage the Chicago Bears, they would not be prepared to match Alabama's intensity (something like that anyhow).

Ohio State doesn't lack talent.  They have SEC talent.  What they don't have is battle-hardened SEC talent.  When you watch the Alabama/Ohio State game harken back to this post.  Watch carefully.  If Ohio State goes into that Notre Dame shell-shocked mode, you'll understand the dynamic at play.

Just like the Notre Dame game, Alabama will own the 1st half of this game.  The smartest bet on the board will be Alabama minus whatever 1st half.

 

Idk about that schedule crapp. Boise v. Okla, Utah over Pitt and Bama, Tcu v. Wisconsin, Louisville v. Florida. Who cares who you play during the regular season. If your good and you play a better game that night then the opponents you'll win.

Great discussion so far. We are gonna figure this out and crush bowl season. I'm gonna post my picks ITT but there are some good points here

First of all I never said Sims is better than McCarron, but because you raise the issue, I'll address it.

I said Sims was better than McCarron, but that's actually meaningless. I think Bama has the ability to score more points with Sims than McCarron, for whatever reason.

This is really more of an offensive coordinator issue than a QB issue.  I have been saying for several years now that Alabama has some of the best and deepest offensive talent in the country and, accordingly, should be one of the best offenses in the nation.  Prior to last season I said that I expected Alabama's offense to be the best in school history.

At no time during the Saban era has Alabama's offense ever lived up to expectations which has led me to lament on more than one occasion that no one in the country gets less out of their talent than Alabama offensive coordinators (Jim McElwain & Doug Nussmeier).  I was ecstatic when both left the program.  Lane Kiffin is the first Alabama offensive coordinator under Nick Saban that has effectively utilized all the weapons at his disposal.

AJ McCarron is a better pure QB than Blake Sims.  He's taller, more experienced, and more accurate on intermediate throws.  He also had a much better ability to read defenses and go through his progressions.  The knocks on McCarron are he is arrogant so most of his teammates didn't care for him much, he doesn't know how to step up in the pocket, he's slow, he's un-athletic, and if you flush him out of the pocket, the play is dead because he has zero playmaking ability.

Sims is very athletic and is almost impossible to sack, but really struggles with the intermediate passing game.  He is also not very good at reading defenses and going through his progressions.  Kiffin has masked some of Sims' deficiencies by essentially reading defenses for him from the sideline.

This is actually the best offense, IMHO, Alabama has ever had because they actually have a major league arm under center and the top WR, hands down, in the country. Bama hasn't even needed a passing game to win their national championships. Running game and D were enough. Now they have the Sims to Cooper hookup, and a football genius on the offensive side of the sidelines, and have put up un-bama like offensive numbers. I've been on most of their overs. VS auburn was taking candy from a baby. Vs missouri a tougher cover but a win is a win.

The sims mccarron argument is really pointless but sims can throw it farther and if Cooper is 5 yards open, it makes sims the better QB when they want to throw deep.

If you want to throw intermediate you want mccarron. Leave that Lane and watch the fireworks imo.

Bama TTo large?

heh

The game total hasn't opened up on my book but it's posted at 58.5

Ala -9.5 Ohio State 58.5

that projects to a 34-24 score with a hook

that means bama tt will be 34.5, their highest TT of the year!!!

hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm

FWIW I was expecting total of 54.5

this might be an Alabama de cleaning of Ohio State Bama - 9.5 and the UNDER!

Also FWIW

Putting together a big parlay for the bowl season. I hit this in 2009 for $6K so I'm up large on my Bowl Season Big Parlay

OK St +4.5

The Washington offense has talent with Miles and good recievers but not mature enough to deal with any mishaps. Offensively, the edge is OK St. Defensively, the Huskies have an edge esp vs the pass but with both teams on extended rest, I will take the points in a possible outright dog win. It comes down to the QB in this game as there will be a lot of passes and the one who makes the more mistakes will lose. I put that onus on Cyrus because he is mistake prone over a freshman who showed flashes vs OK.

More to come...

Boise State +3

This is a classic match-up pick. The Broncos run the ball and Arizona runs a 3-4 spread defense built to stop the pac-12 quarterback show, and Ajai will run right through it. I just think AZ has no possible chance in this game and Boise wins outright LARGE.

Boise will allow touchdowns through the air however, but who will be the QB when they do? If you tried 3 different QBs in your conference championship game, do you think you have what it takes to beat a program like Boise?

Boise total set at less than 70 is a gift. Take the OVER with rested clubs. Speed at WR for AZ.

WV -4

This is easy money. WV is an emerging program and the markets are not fully adjusted to the strength of the D. The wide receivers are NFL caliber as a tendem, coaching is strongly under-rated mostly because the dude looks nothing like a football coach. If I saw him on campus I'd assume he was the chemistry professor.

The dumb committee got what they wanted. Saban vs meyer and last years hiesman winner vs this years hiesman winner. Period end of story. Eveyone wants to talk about tcu but TCU LOST TO BAYLOR!!! Why even play the game if it doesnt matter. Imo it should of went 1) bama 2) fsu 3) Oregon 4 ) Baylor.  

The dumb committee got what they wanted. Saban vs meyer and last years hiesman winner vs this years hiesman winner. Period end of story. Eveyone wants to talk about tcu but TCU LOST TO BAYLOR!!! Why even play the game if it doesnt matter. Imo it should of went 1) bama 2) fsu 3) Oregon 4 ) Baylor.

Hahahaahahahaha

couldnt agree with you more. the NCAA tried to correct a corrupt system and made it even more corrupts, and the answer will be more playoff games so these kids can sacrifice more of their bodies for free

I really only needed a day of pouring through the numbers to find the best 4 teams. Here is my rankings afterward. Didn't need to do this during reg season but didn't care.

1. Ala
2. TCU
3. Fla St
4. Oregon

I have TCU rated above Oregon because of stats which anyone can look up. TCU would crush the Oregon o-line and they can cover the recievers. TCU would win imo.

Wrong team favored

Fla St +9

TCU LOST TO BAYLOR!!! Why even play the game if it doesnt matter. Imo it should of went 1) bama 2) fsu 3) Oregon 4 ) Baylor.

OK, this was not only a 3 point road loss implying that these teams are EXACTLY EQUAL in strength, I watched that game, and Baylor got very very lucky to win imo, could have gone either way. Would bet TCU LARGE, if they played again, therefore I have TCU rated above Baylor. I honestly think Baylor would lose to Oregon and TCU is a touchdown better than Baylor on a neurtral site. Haven't bet a single dime on TCU this season so never paid attention to them. In fact, I won my only bet against them. Iowa St fh +20

Now that I'm capping them it's clear they are one of the top 4 teams. Wonder how they'll do vs Ole Miss? How will they react?

TCU 42-3



The bowl selection committee was a disaster. Why is a casual fan like Condoleeza Rice on the committee. Is it possible TCU finishes #2 in the polls?

If Ohio State is competitive I would be VERY surprised

beyond sad

Ohio State

Train you are the ultimate mush I mean it's actually amazing how wrong you are all the time lol

I love you guys.  

there were terrible predictions strewn all over this thread

Sounds like a decent prediction to me