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WEEK 8

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Posted: #26
had planned on taking it easy today.....................


like

BYU  +10
Memphis  -1
Va Tech -5


not bad

UTSA -6'
Troy -9
Ole Miss +4'
Virginia  +7
Miss St   -1'
Old D  +14'


maybe

Tulane  +10
Wyoming  -3
S Caro  -20


$$    thru week  7 ..........  
 
recommended plays     54-34
    *like            24-18
    *not bad     30-16

hunches / maybe     15-16
 

back later boys....BOL this week...............






The impediment to action advances action - what stands in the way becomes the way.
 
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Posted: #27
others worth checking out?.......

USF......Willie T has covered 28...of his last 36 road games....

W Michigan....every week
  *Michigan / Washington ditto

TCU?.....GP 10-0 ATS off bye......these games have been CLOSE

Louisville...might drop to 17?.....should work

 SMU off bye getting 24 at home.....not bad

Bowling Green....better with new QB Morgan

Kan St.....Horn fans fear this game.......plus check out their ROAD games... .......they might win/cover sure....also could get murdered
  * MASSIVE coaching edge to KSU

TREE....if a close to pick-em game......?

Ohio St......'should'.....kill PSU

Bama.....just beat Bama TT over....and forget about it maybe.....
The impediment to action advances action - what stands in the way becomes the way.
 
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Posted: #28
Games that now stand out to me for week #8

Wisconsin -3 I have watched Iowa 3 times this year and 2 out of the last 3 weeks, and have not been impressed at all. We know Wisconsin is coming off a emotional and tough game at home against Ohio State, but Iowa is also a rivalry game for them and I think they are much better team. I really like the QB for the Badgers.

Syracuse -6 at Boston College - Boston College cannot score. Yes there defense can slow down the attack of Syracuse but they are not going to stop them.

Mississippi State-3 at Kentucky - Kentucky is another team that has no offense and after watching Mississippi State this past Saturday against BYU they played a very good game despite losing to a good BYU team in double overtime. I see no reason why the offense cannot score against the Wildcats.

Your thoughts if you have any.
SNITCHES end up being bitches, or end up with stitches, and in ditches! #REALITY
 
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Posted: #29
I see on your posting about Peterson being 10-0 off a bye week, but he has also had far superior teams to the team he has now. After looking into West Virginia I am of the belief they can break this streak by Peterson, as they are playing excellent football in all 3 phases of the game, not to mention the game is being played in  Morgantown, which we know is a very difficult place for a visiting team to play, especially now, as the place is going to be a mad house with the excitement surrounding the team being undefeated, and then having TCU coming into there house just adds to it.
Thoughts???
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Posted: #30
Quote Originally Posted by Urbanwildlife:

I see on your posting about Peterson being 10-0 off a bye week, but he has also had far superior teams to the team he has now. After looking into West Virginia I am of the belief they can break this streak by Peterson, as they are playing excellent football in all 3 phases of the game, not to mention the game is being played in  Morgantown, which we know is a very difficult place for a visiting team to play, especially now, as the place is going to be a mad house with the excitement surrounding the team being undefeated, and then having TCU coming into there house just adds to it.
Thoughts???



NO WAY.............

great SPOT.....for Frogs
  *bad SPOT...for WVirg

MIGHT WORK.....no reason to fight it......IMO

actually  13 ATS wins in a row off bye........
  *somethings .....goin' on there.....dontcha think?


                                                          SU             ATS    O/U
 Oct 29, 2015    WESTV    10    TCU    40    W    -12.0    W    72.5    U
Nov 27, 2014    TCU    48    TEXAS    10    W    +4.5    W    53.5    O
Sep 27, 2014    TCU    56    SMU    0    W    +31.0    W    47.0    O
Sep 13, 2014    MINN    7    TCU    30    W    -17.5    W    50.5    U
Nov 30, 2013    BAYLOR    41    TCU    38    L    +13.5    W    65.0    O
Sep 28, 2013    SMU    17    TCU    48    W    -17.0    W    50.0    O
Nov 22, 2012    TCU    20    TEXAS    13    W    -7.0    W    55.0    U
Dec 3, 2011    UNLV    9    TCU    56    W    -39.0    W    54.5    O
Oct 22, 2011    NEWMEX    0    TCU    69    W    -44.5    W    63.0    O
Nov 27, 2010    TCU    66    NEWMEX    17    W    +44.5    W    57.0    O
Nov 22, 2008    AIRFOR    10    TCU    44    W    -20.5    W    42.0    O
Nov 3, 2007    NEWMEX    0    TCU    37    W    -3.5    W    44.0    U
Oct 21, 2006    TCU    31    ARMY    17    W    +11.5    W    40.5    O



Couch Burners....a WEAK home favorite usually......better lately
  *only covering 7/20 in that role....note 15/20 have gone UNDER

.
Frogs?.....strong as a dog....covering 8/10 as a road dog

TCU has played nowhere near what they are capable....esp on D.......no shock at all to me if they look like a totally different team this week..........  



The impediment to action advances action - what stands in the way becomes the way.
 
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Posted: #31
Thank you!, and that is why I run things off of you as I know you will tell it like it is!
SNITCHES end up being bitches, or end up with stitches, and in ditches! #REALITY
 
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Posted: #32
damn i went 13-4 this week in college football, but lost bc of UCLA... I shouldnt have bet so much on one game, but Wash St is a lot better, its a shame that teams dont play to cover...

Anyways does anybody have a site that lists all of the players ejected for targeting.  There's obviously some value in knowing if a team will be missing key players for a half.
 
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Posted: #33
Off the top of my head I can think of two players ejected for targeting... I believe Arkansas will be without their safety for the 1st half next week, same goes for Houston.  I think it's safe to say that Houston wasnt as good as we thought they were, they easily couldve lost to Tulsa.  I know they beat Oklahoma, but who know;s how good they are, they didnt look great against K-State until they lost their 1st string QB.  Dede Westbrook has brought another dimension to their team, that wasnt there when they played Houston...

Oklahoma will be able to score on almost every possession against Texas tech, plus Baker Mayfield will have a bit of a revenge factor, but on the flip side OU will be missing something like 4 key defensive starters, I am imagining a ton of big plays, idk what the O/U is but I would probably take over 80
 
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Posted: #34
Nice informative post alopez14325!
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Posted: #35
Out of curiosity are you going to play this game my friend?
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Posted: #36
adding Ariz St +7 (+105).....

looking at ....

CM  +10'

TCU at 7......now 6

Louisville at 17

Idaho ??

TTech at 14....moved to 8:00p ......don't see the RR getting blown out at home in late game....

Houston at <21 ??....bad match-up for SMU...maybe I'll wait and see if they get down early .> play in-game or 2H ???
  *bad weather drastically changed dynamics of Navy game > then hangover vs Tulsa.....here's a nice spot for bounceback

might add to Tulane > see how high line rises....

Kan St if <3......shock the helll outta me if Texas wins here
  * ROAD games?.....Horns have only MISSED the COVER....on their last 6 true road games...by 121 pts or so....(dropping Baylor who quit after tough loss/weather game at TCU)....with Baylor + 27....(7 games (-94 pts)...=  -13.4/game.....plus as most losers do...they celebrate their wins big time....usually weak the next game ......

TREE?.....at near pick 'em
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Posted: #37
K State stood out to me as well. Is Ertz hurt? Huebner sucks and came into the Oklahoma game and did his typical 25 yard over throws. If Ertz is out Texas is an easy play. Huebner is one of worst throwers in college.

Tree has worst QB in conference. Ryan Burns flat out sucks. That game against ND is the style they can win. IE flip field, play tough D, wait for a turnover and pounce. But they have little to no vertical attack which makes it tough against these teams that can put points up. Unless you think the D can hold Colorado under 21 I think Buffs are the play.

Good luck this week Bookie.
 
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Posted: #38
I'm kind of leaning Texas. I'm probably wrong, but I can see UT getting on a little bit of a run in the second half of the season. Going forward, I think their D will be better with Strong now calling the plays. The biggest concern is the coaching mismatch. But Snyder was also a coaching mismatch against Holgerson and still lost. I'm not at all impressed with Ertz and KSU's offense. They've been out-yardaged in their last 3 games. That's going to eventually catch up with them. The Cats look like another .500 team this year.
 
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Posted: #39
Has anybody used numberfire for a reference?  This is the first time ive seen their predictions but there's a lot of valuable insight.

https://www.numberfire.com/ncaaf/games/2016-10-22
 
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Posted: #40
BA....got Memphis as my #1 play on a combo of revenge/motivation angle, good run dee, familiarity with Navy and much better QB play. I believe I would still consider Memphis at -6 for 1 UNIT.......but I took the -3 for much more

Always appreciate your stonecold approach
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
 
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Posted: #41
Hey BA, keep on killing it.

I have a question for you re: S+P (connelly) ratings

When looking at the S+P ratings for offense or defense specifically I have noticed some oddities. Mostly the OVERALL rank and the rushing/passing/SD/PD/Success/ISO ratings are in line. yet with some teams they are WAY over or under. For instance, as of this week CAL is ranked #7 at 40.8. Yet the other ratings are much worse than that; 25/52/44/41/25/46. Whereas FLA St is ranked just below at #8 at 40.7, with these rankings; 8/10/8/7/12/2.
Taking a complete stab in the dark, this maybe a function of SOS? But I really wonder why these numbers do NOT correspond for teams?

Thoughts?
 
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Posted: #42
Serious contest taking place across the street with the BigQueenQH. I had not stopped by there for quite some time until tonight. A separate thread has been set up for it. It is going to be interesting with donations made to the St. Jude Foundation by Electrons.
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Posted: #43
It truly amazes me how the mods and I am referring mainly to the c_nt Shari and of course JJ have destroyed that forum. They have taken it to rock bottom, it cannot get any lower. There is not one quality poster anymore on the College Football Forum. There are no write ups, no serious conversations about football games, it is 100 percent a kiddie playground for the mentally challenged. I am not sure how they even get the traffic to stay in business. I only go there to get a good laugh from reading the threats of the Queen and from the humor displayed by Electrons. He is probably the smartest poster on the forum, and he seems to know something about football.
SNITCHES end up being bitches, or end up with stitches, and in ditches! #REALITY
 
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Posted: #44
BA .... winds projected 15-17 mph TCU / WVAG game both  passing teams predominately .... worth an under on total ?... or is that not wind to really make a diff? Thx for your work. BTW Caveman Logic both interesting and disturbing...
 
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Posted: #45
Quote Originally Posted by Last2thirst:

BA....got Memphis as my #1 play on a combo of revenge/motivation angle, good run dee, familiarity with Navy and much better QB play. I believe I would still consider Memphis at -6 for 1 UNIT.......but I took the -3 for much more

Always appreciate your stonecold approach
I like Memphis. They are definitely one of the top plays I'm considering. They know Navy's offense well and have had an extra day or two to prepare for the option.
 
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Posted: #46
added in-game Troy -3' (+105).....back later
The impediment to action advances action - what stands in the way becomes the way.
 
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Posted: #47
standard one unit play
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Posted: #48
hey BA, love checking your threads every week. i dont know much about college but i like the way you cap.

thank you for the VA pick. 


 
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Posted: #49
Help me my friend as I sometimes get tunnel vision.
What are your thoughts on South Florida and the UCF game. I am really liking South Florida so much I am not seeing nothing else but a win for them.
SNITCHES end up being bitches, or end up with stitches, and in ditches! #REALITY
 
 
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Posted: #50
I try to look outside the box and I am not seeing anyway the Bulls do not cover unless it is a game like tonight.
SNITCHES end up being bitches, or end up with stitches, and in ditches! #REALITY
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