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    All Forums | College Football

    Week 5 CFB Plays

    «First Previous 12345 Next Last»
    CoverLane
    JFen31
    Louis_IV
    TurnstoneMoney
    Crimedog
    ...
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    CoverLane
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    Posted: Sep. 28, 2012 - 3:58 AM ET #76

    Jfen -- Buffalo is missing a handful of starters, most importantly Brandon Oliver (142 yards per game). Buffalo has little depth at that position, and little depth at the WR position. This is a run heavy team and the uconn defense will take advantage of the weakened run game with their defensive pressure. They like to bring all kind of weird blitzes that confuses QBs. Buffalo really only throws to one guy on offense (Alex Neutz, 6 of their 7 TDs and 15 of 36 receptions)...Could be a rough day in the pocket for the QB. 

    I feel Buffalo is going to really struggle to score this weekend. 
    Some possessions buffalo runs the ball 6+ times in a row and Uconn has a very solid run D..



    Here are some of Buffalo's possessions last week:

     Keep in mind the Buffalo QB does run the ball, I've bolded those possessions. 

    9 plays, 30 yards.
    run,run,run,run,run,run,pass,pass,pass,punt 33 yards. 

    3 plays, 6 yards.
    run, run, pass, punt 39 yards

    9 plays, 25 yards.
    run,run,run,run,run,run,run,run,pass, punt 36 yards.

    The possessions from here on out were without their #1 RB. 

    4 plays, 41 yards, fumble for a turnover
    run, pass, run, run(fumble).

    run, pass, pass, punt for 34 yards

    pass, run, run, punt for 47 yards 

    pass (interception)

    run,run,pass,pass(45 yard touchdown to end the 1st half)

    Buffalo was in the game still at this point, down 7-10.

    Second half went as follows..

    6 plays, 30 yards
    run,run,run,run,pass,pass (punt for 30 yards)

    7 plays, 38 yards.
    run,pass,run,pass,run,run,pass(interception)

    3 plays, 9 yards
    run,run,run, punt for 25 yards

    3 plays, 7 yards
    run,run,pass, punt for 34 yards

    5 plays, 12 yards
    pass, run,pass,pass,pass(turnover on downs)

    NEW QB PUT IN FOR BUFFALO

    pass(interception)

    pass,sack,pass,pass (time ran out on their comeback)

    they were 5/26 on passes
    39 rushing attempts
    22:30 time of possession
    3 interceptions, 1 fumble

    Now I know just because they played like shit offensively one game doesn't mean they will repeat that performance. Connecticut has a great defense that gave up a few too many vs. Western Michigan last week. They should be able to keep the Bulls out of the end zone given Buffalo's lack of weapons.

    I mentioned earlier that the Bulls top RB, Oliver, is likely out for this game. The good news is that his injury isn't long term and that he may be able to play next weekend. 

    "Oliver has been the lynchpin of the ground attack with 426 yards on the season for an impressive average of 142.0 yards per game. He is currently fourth in the MAC in rushing yards, but first in yards per game. The rest of the backs have not gotten much work this season with Brandon Murie (12 carries, 50 yards) and James Potts (two carries, 54 yards) being the biggest contributors."

    "The Bulls second-leading rusher is quarterback Alex Zordich who has rushed for 122 yards this season. Zordich has been very hit-or-miss in the passing game completing just over fifty percent of his passes this season (34-for-67) for 477 yards, six touchdowns and three interceptions. He has relied heavily on wideout Alex Neutz, who has 15 receptions, 264 yards and a MAC-leading six touchdowns. No other receiver has more than six receptions or 84 yards."

    UB has yielded a run of at least 38 yards in each of the first three games and two runs longer than 50.

    Starters lost during the course of the Bulls' 23-7 Mid-American Conference defeat were workhorse running back Branden Oliver, defensive end Steven Means, wideout Fred Lee and safety/linebacker Issac Baugh.


    This game could spell trouble for Buffalo, they may put up 0 points.

    I'm not trying to be an asshole here or anything, just trying to keep ya informed.

    Good luck this weekend 


    Read more here: https://www.kansascity.com/2012/09/26/3834681/buffalo-1-2-at-connecticut-2-2.html#storylink=cpy"

    Read more here: https://www.kansascity.com/2012/09/26/3834681/buffalo-1-2-at-connecticut-2-2.html#storylink=cpy"
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    Jfen -- Buffalo is missing a handful of starters, most importantly Brandon Oliver (142 yards per game). Buffalo has little depth at that position, and little depth at the WR position. This is a run heavy team and the uconn defense will take advantage of the weakened run game with their defensive pressure. They like to bring all kind of weird blitzes that confuses QBs. Buffalo really only throws to one guy on offense (Alex Neutz, 6 of their 7 TDs and 15 of 36 receptions)...Could be a rough day in the pocket for the QB. 

    I feel Buffalo is going to really struggle to score this weekend. 
    Some possessions buffalo runs the ball 6+ times in a row and Uconn has a very solid run D..



    Here are some of Buffalo's possessions last week:

     Keep in mind the Buffalo QB does run the ball, I've bolded those possessions. 

    9 plays, 30 yards.
    run,run,run,run,run,run,pass,pass,pass,punt 33 yards. 

    3 plays, 6 yards.
    run, run, pass, punt 39 yards

    9 plays, 25 yards.
    run,run,run,run,run,run,run,run,pass, punt 36 yards.

    The possessions from here on out were without their #1 RB. 

    4 plays, 41 yards, fumble for a turnover
    run, pass, run, run(fumble).

    run, pass, pass, punt for 34 yards

    pass, run, run, punt for 47 yards 

    pass (interception)

    run,run,pass,pass(45 yard touchdown to end the 1st half)

    Buffalo was in the game still at this point, down 7-10.

    Second half went as follows..

    6 plays, 30 yards
    run,run,run,run,pass,pass (punt for 30 yards)

    7 plays, 38 yards.
    run,pass,run,pass,run,run,pass(interception)

    3 plays, 9 yards
    run,run,run, punt for 25 yards

    3 plays, 7 yards
    run,run,pass, punt for 34 yards

    5 plays, 12 yards
    pass, run,pass,pass,pass(turnover on downs)

    NEW QB PUT IN FOR BUFFALO

    pass(interception)

    pass,sack,pass,pass (time ran out on their comeback)

    they were 5/26 on passes
    39 rushing attempts
    22:30 time of possession
    3 interceptions, 1 fumble

    Now I know just because they played like shit offensively one game doesn't mean they will repeat that performance. Connecticut has a great defense that gave up a few too many vs. Western Michigan last week. They should be able to keep the Bulls out of the end zone given Buffalo's lack of weapons.

    I mentioned earlier that the Bulls top RB, Oliver, is likely out for this game. The good news is that his injury isn't long term and that he may be able to play next weekend. 

    "Oliver has been the lynchpin of the ground attack with 426 yards on the season for an impressive average of 142.0 yards per game. He is currently fourth in the MAC in rushing yards, but first in yards per game. The rest of the backs have not gotten much work this season with Brandon Murie (12 carries, 50 yards) and James Potts (two carries, 54 yards) being the biggest contributors."

    "The Bulls second-leading rusher is quarterback Alex Zordich who has rushed for 122 yards this season. Zordich has been very hit-or-miss in the passing game completing just over fifty percent of his passes this season (34-for-67) for 477 yards, six touchdowns and three interceptions. He has relied heavily on wideout Alex Neutz, who has 15 receptions, 264 yards and a MAC-leading six touchdowns. No other receiver has more than six receptions or 84 yards."

    UB has yielded a run of at least 38 yards in each of the first three games and two runs longer than 50.

    Starters lost during the course of the Bulls' 23-7 Mid-American Conference defeat were workhorse running back Branden Oliver, defensive end Steven Means, wideout Fred Lee and safety/linebacker Issac Baugh.


    This game could spell trouble for Buffalo, they may put up 0 points.

    I'm not trying to be an asshole here or anything, just trying to keep ya informed.

    Good luck this weekend 


    Read more here: https://www.kansascity.com/2012/09/26/3834681/buffalo-1-2-at-connecticut-2-2.html#storylink=cpy"

    Read more here: https://www.kansascity.com/2012/09/26/3834681/buffalo-1-2-at-connecticut-2-2.html#storylink=cpy"
     
    CoverLane
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    Posted: Sep. 28, 2012 - 4:06 AM ET #77

    Also like to add that Buffalo lit up a SHIT Morgan Town secondary, and by Buffalo I mean Neutz. 

    They played a Georgia squad that was resting some players and thats likely why Buffalo looked somewhat decent.

    How many people were suckered into Buffalo -3 last week vs. Kent St??

    Maybe if Brandon Oliver plays Buffalo covers, but things are quite different for this game if he isn't playing. 


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    Also like to add that Buffalo lit up a SHIT Morgan Town secondary, and by Buffalo I mean Neutz. 

    They played a Georgia squad that was resting some players and thats likely why Buffalo looked somewhat decent.

    How many people were suckered into Buffalo -3 last week vs. Kent St??

    Maybe if Brandon Oliver plays Buffalo covers, but things are quite different for this game if he isn't playing. 


     
    JFen31
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    Posted: Sep. 28, 2012 - 9:55 AM ET #78

    Thanks fellas.

    CoverLane - great info. I'll look over it again during class.
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    Thanks fellas.

    CoverLane - great info. I'll look over it again during class.
     
    Louis_IV
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    Posted: Sep. 28, 2012 - 11:00 AM ET #79

    gl
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    gl
     
    JFen31
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    Posted: Sep. 28, 2012 - 11:25 AM ET #80

    Tonight:

    Hawaii @ BYU Under 50 (1 unit)

    Still think Taysom Hill ends up starting and will struggle in a high-pressure spot. Hawaii's young defense struggled mightily against Ault's Pistol offense last week but should have a whole lot more success against a really dry and bland BYU unit. Neither team runs much hurry-up and the clock should be running throughout the game.
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    Tonight:

    Hawaii @ BYU Under 50 (1 unit)

    Still think Taysom Hill ends up starting and will struggle in a high-pressure spot. Hawaii's young defense struggled mightily against Ault's Pistol offense last week but should have a whole lot more success against a really dry and bland BYU unit. Neither team runs much hurry-up and the clock should be running throughout the game.
     
    JFen31
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    Posted: Sep. 28, 2012 - 11:25 AM ET #81

    And that play is -115.
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    And that play is -115.
     
    TurnstoneMoney
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    Posted: Sep. 28, 2012 - 11:33 AM ET #82

    On the under too....

    BYU held Boise on the blue turf...no reason Hawaii should score more then 10.
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    On the under too....

    BYU held Boise on the blue turf...no reason Hawaii should score more then 10.
     
    Crimedog
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    Posted: Sep. 28, 2012 - 11:51 AM ET #83

    Hey jfen
    what you think of wv baylor the line started out -13 and 79% of the money is on wv now its -11.5.. going the wrong way
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    Hey jfen
    what you think of wv baylor the line started out -13 and 79% of the money is on wv now its -11.5.. going the wrong way
     
    NYBUILT
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    Posted: Sep. 28, 2012 - 12:13 PM ET #84

    Any thoughts on Iowa-7 at home vs Minny?
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    Any thoughts on Iowa-7 at home vs Minny?
     
    JFen31
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    Posted: Sep. 28, 2012 - 1:07 PM ET #85

    Crimedog - Lots of sharp money came in on Baylor early in the week, ostensibly due to the fact that WVU will probably give up a boatload of points. Say the 'Neers put up 40-45...may not be enough for a cover. Big stay-away game for me.

    NYBuilt - Only play I could possibly make is teasing Iowa to a PK. Minny has played a bit over its head to this point and my gut says Iowa bounces back and plays well...but this is not a game I want to be involved with.
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    Crimedog - Lots of sharp money came in on Baylor early in the week, ostensibly due to the fact that WVU will probably give up a boatload of points. Say the 'Neers put up 40-45...may not be enough for a cover. Big stay-away game for me.

    NYBuilt - Only play I could possibly make is teasing Iowa to a PK. Minny has played a bit over its head to this point and my gut says Iowa bounces back and plays well...but this is not a game I want to be involved with.
     
    TwinBranches
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    Posted: Sep. 28, 2012 - 1:26 PM ET #86

    Hawaii/BYU Under
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    Hawaii/BYU Under
     
    Gochu4u
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    Posted: Sep. 28, 2012 - 9:20 PM ET #87

    I've always enjoy reading ur write ups.. I really want to hear watcha ya think wit clemson at BC +7?
    No gamble No future
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    I've always enjoy reading ur write ups.. I really want to hear watcha ya think wit clemson at BC +7?
     
    2MuchJohnson4U
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    Posted: Sep. 28, 2012 - 9:49 PM ET #88

    Good looking card.  I'm on 3 or 4 of those and leaned towards a few more.

    GL 

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    Good looking card.  I'm on 3 or 4 of those and leaned towards a few more.

    GL 

     
    ShadowWarrior
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    Posted: Sep. 29, 2012 - 3:54 AM ET #89

    Good call tonight on the under JFen!
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    Good call tonight on the under JFen!
     
    TRAIN69
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    Posted: Sep. 29, 2012 - 3:56 AM ET #90

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    MuggsyBogues
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    Posted: Sep. 29, 2012 - 5:54 AM ET #91

    No score for the final 8 minutes... sometimes better be lucky than good!
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    No score for the final 8 minutes... sometimes better be lucky than good!
     
    Kdubb99
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    Posted: Sep. 29, 2012 - 7:24 AM ET #92

    Jfen,

    I started following your college ball plays last year and did quite well. However, I had poor money management.  I would like your advice on how to manage money. Bet same amount each game?

    I have a college football bankroll of $500.  How many games should I bet? Percentage per bet? Thanks and good luck
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    Jfen,

    I started following your college ball plays last year and did quite well. However, I had poor money management.  I would like your advice on how to manage money. Bet same amount each game?

    I have a college football bankroll of $500.  How many games should I bet? Percentage per bet? Thanks and good luck
     
    lovinhockey
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    Posted: Sep. 29, 2012 - 7:45 AM ET #93

    gl bud
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    gl bud
     
    JFen31
    JFen31
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    Posted: Sep. 29, 2012 - 11:15 AM ET #94

    Quote Originally Posted by Kdubb99:

    Jfen,

    I started following your college ball plays last year and did quite well. However, I had poor money management.  I would like your advice on how to manage money. Bet same amount each game?

    I have a college football bankroll of $500.  How many games should I bet? Percentage per bet? Thanks and good luck


    The rule of thumb I've always been told is 3-5% per game. I personally have found more success flat-betting rather than different amounts. Do your best to avoid chasing losing days; it almost always makes things worse.

    Also, a lot of people insist that betting more than a few games on a standard CFB Saturday is bankroll suicide, but if you feel you have a significant enough edge, limiting your plays to a set number is not necessary.

    For your bankroll, $25/game (5%) is a solid amount.

    Hope this helps.


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    Quote Originally Posted by Kdubb99:

    Jfen,

    I started following your college ball plays last year and did quite well. However, I had poor money management.  I would like your advice on how to manage money. Bet same amount each game?

    I have a college football bankroll of $500.  How many games should I bet? Percentage per bet? Thanks and good luck


    The rule of thumb I've always been told is 3-5% per game. I personally have found more success flat-betting rather than different amounts. Do your best to avoid chasing losing days; it almost always makes things worse.

    Also, a lot of people insist that betting more than a few games on a standard CFB Saturday is bankroll suicide, but if you feel you have a significant enough edge, limiting your plays to a set number is not necessary.

    For your bankroll, $25/game (5%) is a solid amount.

    Hope this helps.


     
    DAnewguy
    DAnewguy
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    Posted: Sep. 29, 2012 - 11:27 AM ET #95

      Go today
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      Go today
     
    JFen31
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    Posted: Sep. 29, 2012 - 11:48 AM ET #96

    Couple money line shots...

    Boston College +230 (0.5 units)
    Arkansas +405 (0.25 units)

    Texas State +710 (0.25 units)
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    Couple money line shots...

    Boston College +230 (0.5 units)
    Arkansas +405 (0.25 units)

    Texas State +710 (0.25 units)
     
    Gochu4u
    Gochu4u
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    Posted: Sep. 29, 2012 - 1:11 PM ET #97

    I guess that answers my question bout BC.. Puahaha.. GL bro
    No gamble No future
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    I guess that answers my question bout BC.. Puahaha.. GL bro
     
    JFen31
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    Posted: Sep. 29, 2012 - 1:12 PM ET #98

    Quote Originally Posted by Gochu4u:

    I guess that answers my question bout BC.. Puahaha.. GL bro


    My bad, forgot about your post. Playing the ML because the line has dropped a ton and I don't want a bad number. Plus, it kinda feels like one of those games where Clemson either covers or loses outright.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gochu4u:

    I guess that answers my question bout BC.. Puahaha.. GL bro


    My bad, forgot about your post. Playing the ML because the line has dropped a ton and I don't want a bad number. Plus, it kinda feels like one of those games where Clemson either covers or loses outright.
     
    miniman44444
    miniman44444
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    Posted: Sep. 29, 2012 - 1:26 PM ET #99

    Glad I passed on Minnesota good call JFen I did follow you on middle tenn st tho and not too bad right now gl today
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    Glad I passed on Minnesota good call JFen I did follow you on middle tenn st tho and not too bad right now gl today
     
     
    JFen31
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    Posted: Sep. 29, 2012 - 1:46 PM ET #100

    Middle Tennessee 2H +10.5 @ Georgia Tech (1 unit)

    Doubling up on the Raiders.
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    Middle Tennessee 2H +10.5 @ Georgia Tech (1 unit)

    Doubling up on the Raiders.
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