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Week 5 CFB Plays

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Posts: 114

ShadowWarrior

Captain

Joined: Nov, 2002

Posts: 7112

Posted: Sep. 24, 2012 - 11:03 AM ET #26

Had a feeling your Penn St. Call was good again. BYU kills Hawaii on Friday. This use to be our biggest rival back in the day when they came here to take all our Mormon athletes like Manti Teo to play for them. They may take it easy on us as Norm Chow has roots there even though he is from here and played for Obama's alma mater in high school. But the way we were shredded Sat. nite, BYUs power would seem too much, e specially on the road. Good going!

elz24

Rookie

Joined: May, 2011

Posts: 608

Posted: Sep. 24, 2012 - 12:52 PM ET #27

Quote Originally Posted by JFen31:

Couple things. I had Rutgers money line this past weekend and watched the game from start to finish. Is Arkansas really flawed? Oh, yes. Very. But the best thing that can happen right now for this team is to get the hell out of Fayetteville. Considering the expectations heading into the season, the natives are quite restless and are understandably beginning to cause a ruckus. Leaving town and heading into an intimidating road environment is ultimately going to be a net positive. Also consider that Rutgers was a BAD matchup for the Hogs. The Knights are extremely physical and have a defense designed to shut down the spread. A & M has not shown nearly enough to be laying this number.

Is there risk in this play? Definitely. But to be honest I would not be remotely surprised to see Arkansas win this game outright.

be careful here man.... good chance ark has quit on the season, there coach is a joke, and everything they started playing for this season is now gone

elz24

Rookie

Joined: May, 2011

Posts: 608

Posted: Sep. 24, 2012 - 12:56 PM ET #28

also the great jfen i seek your advice... i can get ohio state +9 or 10 depending on the number in a teaser but seek another team... any suggestions oh wise one?

JFen31

Captain

Joined: Dec, 2008

Posts: 8308

Posted: Sep. 24, 2012 - 1:09 PM ET #29

Quote Originally Posted by rr207:

Washington is a tough place, especially in primetime. Would you take the ML?

Probably will end up on it by gametime.

SportsFreak69

Legend

Joined: Aug, 2008

Posts: 36843

Posted: Sep. 24, 2012 - 1:25 PM ET #30

Best of Luck

dimedimenickel

Prospect

Joined: Sep, 2007

Posts: 328

Posted: Sep. 24, 2012 - 1:32 PM ET #31

JFEN what u think the total will be on this MTSU game? Thanks in advance.

elz24

Rookie

Joined: May, 2011

Posts: 608

Posted: Sep. 24, 2012 - 1:35 PM ET #32

Quote Originally Posted by JFen31:

Probably will end up on it by gametime.

dont you ignore my question if you dont answer me how can i win any games :(

JFen31

Captain

Joined: Dec, 2008

Posts: 8308

Posted: Sep. 24, 2012 - 2:26 PM ET #33

Quote Originally Posted by dimedimenickel:

JFEN what u think the total will be on this MTSU game? Thanks in advance.

60-64? Should be a relatively up-tempo game.

austintx11

Banned

Joined: Sep, 2011

Posts: 1728

Posted: Sep. 24, 2012 - 2:32 PM ET #34

What do you see with Tennessee? Initially I like it at 14, but am concerned with how they folded and looked soft vs Florida. Georgia is a physical team too.

JFen31

Captain

Joined: Dec, 2008

Posts: 8308

Posted: Sep. 24, 2012 - 2:40 PM ET #35

Updating the leans:

Navy +3, NC State +3, Buffalo +18, Illinois -1.5, Virginia -3, Duke +3, Texas State +22, North Texas -5, UCF -3

Teaser possibilities:
NC State +10, Duke +10, UNC -16.5, Nebraska -6, Tulsa -6.5

JFen31

Captain

Joined: Dec, 2008

Posts: 8308

Posted: Sep. 24, 2012 - 2:42 PM ET #36

Quote Originally Posted by austintx11:

What do you see with Tennessee? Initially I like it at 14, but am concerned with how they folded and looked soft vs Florida. Georgia is a physical team too.

Yeah I'm not altogether concerned with the collapse against Florida. That game turned on one or two plays and the final margin was hardly indicative of how close the game actually was. I love fading teams who just played their best game of the season - UGA's demolition of Vandy on Saturday fits that description. Plus, under Richt, the Dawgs have not been good as big favorites. This is kind of a gut play, though.

JFen31

Captain

Joined: Dec, 2008

Posts: 8308

Posted: Sep. 24, 2012 - 5:52 PM ET #37

I'm afraid of losing a key number here, so grabbing it now...

Louisiana Tech @ Virginia +3 (1 unit)

Star1

Banned

Joined: Sep, 2011

Posts: 397

Posted: Sep. 24, 2012 - 10:57 PM ET #38

Quote Originally Posted by JFen31:

Some thoughts...

-Speaking of LA Tech, how 'bout those Bulldogs, eh? 50+ points in the first three games of the season. A 28-point win on the road against a well-regarded B1G team. Impressive, to say the least. The party ends this week, though. Back-to-back road games and a shitload of travel, not to mention an underachieving UVA defense, is ultimately going to be too much to overcome. I've been fading the Wahoos for three weeks straight, but a reversal of fortunes is in order. Waiting to see if I could get a better number as LA Tech will be a very popular play.

Been a Big Fan of yours from the CBB forum...

But what do you think about the under for this game...Think it stays below 61.5...Good Luck this week

JFen31

Captain

Joined: Dec, 2008

Posts: 8308

Posted: Sep. 25, 2012 - 1:12 AM ET #39

Quote Originally Posted by Star1:

Been a Big Fan of yours from the CBB forum...

But what do you think about the under for this game...Think it stays below 61.5...Good Luck this week

I appreciate it, man.

Tough to say on the total. UVA is a ball-control offense and has very little quick-strike capability. There should be some relatively time-consuming drives. LA Tech is all about SPEED - no huddle, up tempo, spread system. If UVA doesn't give up big plays, I think this stays under.

You're definitely getting a few points of value based on LA Tech facing a couple terrible defenses and scoring almost of their touchdowns last week as a direct result of Illinois turnovers.

MGD

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Joined: Aug, 2010

Posts: 1529

Posted: Sep. 25, 2012 - 1:24 AM ET #40

Glad to see the Utah St teaser lean, one of my favs this week... Rebels are huge fade material on the road and Utah St at home is strong. That with Nebraska will be my big two team teaser. GL Jfen!!

TurnstoneMoney

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Joined: Jul, 2011

Posts: 2096

Posted: Sep. 25, 2012 - 11:25 AM ET #41

As always, good luck

abizzo24

Veteran

Joined: Aug, 2012

Posts: 2537

Posted: Sep. 25, 2012 - 11:29 AM ET #42

J Fen, i really like your posts, thanks for the time you put in. you seem like you have a really good handle on CFB.

Just a suggestion... Have you ever considering playing less plays? 16 per week just seems like overkill to me. In my experience, narrowing things down to 3-5 of best plays seems to be more profitable...

JFen31

Captain

Joined: Dec, 2008

Posts: 8308

Posted: Sep. 25, 2012 - 11:36 AM ET #43

Adding:

Buffalo +17.5 @ UCONN (1 unit)
Duke +10/Nebraska -6 -120 (1 unit)

JFen31

Captain

Joined: Dec, 2008

Posts: 8308

Posted: Sep. 25, 2012 - 11:38 AM ET #44

MGD - Don't think I included Utah State as a lean. Too many concerns with BYU on deck.

Turnstone - Thanks bud. Good luck to you too.

JFen31

Captain

Joined: Dec, 2008

Posts: 8308

Posted: Sep. 25, 2012 - 11:43 AM ET #45

Quote Originally Posted by abizzo24:

J Fen, i really like your posts, thanks for the time you put in. you seem like you have a really good handle on CFB.

Just a suggestion... Have you ever considering playing less plays? 16 per week just seems like overkill to me. In my experience, narrowing things down to 3-5 of best plays seems to be more profitable...

Much appreciated. Couple things here. First, when I think I have an edge, I'm going to make a play. I use 5Dimes for all of my gameday wagers, so the reduced juice offerings mitigate losses.

More importantly, though, is my "flat-betting" method. With rare exception, all of my plays are for the same amount, meaning I inherently back each wager with roughly equal confidence. Narrowing a list of 12-15 strong reads down to 3-5 is not really possible as I would essentially be randomly picking which games to play.

abizzo24

Veteran

Joined: Aug, 2012

Posts: 2537

Posted: Sep. 25, 2012 - 12:09 PM ET #46

ok, makes sense. good luck this week.

i just created a post about FSU at USF, any thoughts on this one? sure seems like a flat spot for FSU with USF out to prove they don't suck.

Fazool

Prospect

Joined: Sep, 2010

Posts: 317

Posted: Sep. 25, 2012 - 12:52 PM ET #47

JFen first time reader of your post and i have to say some great insight on the games.

Man i wouldn't feel comfortable backing ARK, they just look like a complete mess right now. But like you said hitting the road may do them some good.

What's with Rice as a 4.5 pt. home dog against HOU? Shouldn't that line be the other way around?

Good luck.

LetsBeatDaHouse

Prospect

Joined: Oct, 2009

Posts: 166

Posted: Sep. 25, 2012 - 1:05 PM ET #48

JFen,

Any upset alerts among these? North Carolina, Ohio, South Carolina, UCLA, Nevada, UL Monroe, Florida State. What would be your top 3 ML plays among these?

Appreciate your input last week regarding Iowa getting upset. Saved me a ton.

Star1

Banned

Joined: Sep, 2011

Posts: 397

Posted: Sep. 25, 2012 - 2:02 PM ET #49

Good Luck....Glad your doing football this season...Awesome source of knowledge to this forum

DAnewguy

Veteran

Joined: Feb, 2011

Posts: 2573

Posted: Sep. 25, 2012 - 3:35 PM ET #50

why in god name do i keep on staring at texas state?....im still getting it at 21 here.......whats stopping you frrom moving this from a lean to a play?

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