Posted:
#51
good luck this season nos
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week 1 money
Posted:
#52
Quote Originally Posted by nostradamus12:
Nos I love Texas and the Badger, what you think.
what's going on fellas
, back for a 7th season here...profitable in 13 of the last 15 years, not many breaks last year for going somewhere around 120-100, goal is to get back somewhere in the 130-90 range
surprised that Heritage had numbers up early Friday 
ahead of BM
Nebraska -24 (1.5u)
Auburn -13 (1.5)
Texas -42 (1.25)
LSU -5.5 (1.25)
UCLA -16
Texas Tech -5
Utah -3 (-105)
Colorado +1.5
Purdue +14 (-115) (0.75)
California +8 (0.75)
Miss St +14 (0.75)
should probably do it for week 1 other than looking at 3-4 write-in games and totals, back next week with some scores and comments, still have about 40 teams
to check out in depth in the next couple weeks
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Posted:
#53
Quote Originally Posted by LonghornHoosier:
can you expand on that...why should any objective gambler risk their cash on a highly variable fruitcake like Kiffin who is playing in paradise where a vastly inferior Hawaii team has an advantage who could not motivate his team to anything more than show up at the Sun Bowl. Are they going to Hawaii to kick some butt and start a successful season, or will they go through the motions and get a ten point win and call a day.
Again, you will gain a lot of cred on covers if you can provide support from your otherwise Homer oriented pick. Yours truly will be actively reading whatever you have to say. Thanks in advance.
Hawaii stank last year, going 1-7 in their own weak conference. No offense and a defense that couldn't stop the run. I don't think their first game this year will show much improvement. The fact they are playing in Hawaii doesn't matter. Just look at their history. In the last 5 games, USC has scored no less than 49 points, twice in the 60's.
Barkley being gone is no big deal. It looks like Kessler will start. The RB's and the great Lee (WR) are returning. They will rack up the points. The question is the defense. It's all new this year (thank god) and the offense is saying how much better they are in practice.
USC has a disappointing year last year, and with all the hate for Kiffin, I think they are not getting the proper respect. I think it should be 30 points, not 22.5.
This "homer" is just as likely to advise betting against USC as for it.
Good luck this year.
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Posted:
#56
Quote Originally Posted by 1969USC:
Hawaii stank last year, going 1-7 in their own weak conference. No offense and a defense that couldn't stop the run. I don't think their first game this year will show much improvement. The fact they are playing in Hawaii doesn't matter. Just look at their history. In the last 5 games, USC has scored no less than 49 points, twice in the 60's.
Barkley being gone is no big deal. It looks like Kessler will start. The RB's and the great Lee (WR) are returning. They will rack up the points. The question is the defense. It's all new this year (thank god) and the offense is saying how much better they are in practice.
USC has a disappointing year last year, and with all the hate for Kiffin, I think they are not getting the proper respect. I think it should be 30 points, not 22.5.
This "homer" is just as likely to advise betting against USC as for it.
Good luck this year.
Right on 1969USC! I am evaluating USC -22.5 now. I am cynical because they burned me on the Sun Bowl last year. I am waiting to see if Kiffin will do the right thing and name Kesler as the starter. If so, I think USC will light Hawaii and almost every one else they play up!
GL this season, Hook em and Fight On!
LonghornHoosier
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Posted:
#59
what's up fellas, same here BOL
LH - yeah I saw Goff was named starter, fine with that since we knew it would be an inexperienced QB either way and both have talent, still liking Kline's upside....don't mind seeing Franklin out for NMST...concerned some about Texas WRs though with 4 questionable (Jackson, Johnson, Shipley and Davis) although reading this morning that Davis and Shipley back practicing, as long as a couple play it should be fine, GL bud
DP - like the Horns quite a bit, no lean on the Badgers
USC - good stuff, still considering them now -22 and 53 on BM...interesting the total drop from 58....believe you're right and feels like a 38-10 game or worse so might have to pull the trigger there
a few key injuries keeping an eye on....Horns 4 WRs questionable, a couple back practicing though....Auburn DB McNeal out....Tigers have pretty good depth in secondary though.....Utah a few defensive injuries...OLB Blechen questionable (former safety) and JC transfer DB Carter out who was supposed to fill secondary spot.....looks like Tex Tech QB Brewer is out for opener...was still in competition though with true frosh Webb and Mayfield and Webb was in for spring and TT defense looks a like it could be a little tougher this year
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Posted:
#60
Hey Nos - good to see you back for another round!
Quick note: You mentioned QB experience at AUB, are you referring to the named starter Nick Marshall? He, if you remember, was kicked out of UGA for stealing.....
Where did the experience you're referring to come from? lol
NOT saying I disagree with your pick...but where's Waldo been for the last 2-3 years?
BOL for another great season!
Quick note: You mentioned QB experience at AUB, are you referring to the named starter Nick Marshall? He, if you remember, was kicked out of UGA for stealing.....
Where did the experience you're referring to come from? lol
NOT saying I disagree with your pick...but where's Waldo been for the last 2-3 years?
BOL for another great season!
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Posted:
#62
dawg - hey bud, no problem fair point yeah at the time it was written the starter was undecided so I was referring to Frazier and Wallace having more experience...or Marshall via JC...so one way or another they'll be more experienced, whether they're better or not (only 8 TDs last year) is another question
... GL this year dawg
bird - where you been buddy, good to see you back, BOL this season
dorked around a little too long this and didn't get the better number opener on these....anyway still like them and adding a couple totals
BYU-Virginia under 50 (0.75)
Florida St-Pitt under 49 (0.75)
BYU 23 Virginia 17 - missed 51 earlier...sorry to see BYU CB Johnson out as their best 2ndary guy, like the defense though overall and doubt Watford (40% comp in '11) can take advantage, UVA defense is decent and should improve and Hill has only played a couple games and not the greatest
Florida St 24 Pitt 14 - missed 49.5 earlier....like both defenses and 7 TDs seems high in game that matches FSU defense against Savage, Pitt defense pretty solid as well and returns some good pieces and secondary so Winston not likely to go off too much in first start
should probably do it other than looking at 1-2 write in games or team totals next week
updated week 1
Nebraska -24 (1.5u)
Auburn -13 (1.5)
Texas -42 (1.25)
LSU -5.5 (1.25)
UCLA -16
Texas Tech -5
Utah -3 (-105)
Colorado +1.5
Purdue +14 (-115) (0.75)
California +8 (0.75)
Miss St +14 (0.75)
BYU-Virginia under 50 (0.75)
Florida St-Pitt under 49 (0.75)
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Posted:
#63
Lane Kiffin is a terrible ATS bet. Ultra conservative play call in the beginning of the season. 0-3 ATS in season openers while at USC. (He was 1-0 ATS in season opener at Tenn).
He has platoon QBs with 2 total career starts. Wittek is 0-2 as a starter. Kessler never started. Gotta assume they will try to do too much to try to be "the guy" and force too many things. Running game needs to show strength. Silas Redd didn't make the trip (knee). Converted LB Madden and Freshman Davis to get the bulk of the carries - who? Question mark here.
USC o-line is weakest it has been in years. Center is a worry as it was last year. Defense breaking in a new system - tough to tell. Mostly underachievers.
Yes. Hawaii is bad. New transfer QB from tOSU is an injury magnet. Secondary is hopelessly undersized. OC was fired before training camp. Not much good news here.
Too many questions. not a good play. USC will win but closer than you would think. best bet is to not bet.
Quote Originally Posted by 1969USC:
Hawaii stank last year, going 1-7 in their own weak conference. No offense and a defense that couldn't stop the run. I don't think their first game this year will show much improvement. The fact they are playing in Hawaii doesn't matter. Just look at their history. In the last 5 games, USC has scored no less than 49 points, twice in the 60's.
Barkley being gone is no big deal. It looks like Kessler will start. The RB's and the great Lee (WR) are returning. They will rack up the points. The question is the defense. It's all new this year (thank god) and the offense is saying how much better they are in practice.
USC has a disappointing year last year, and with all the hate for Kiffin, I think they are not getting the proper respect. I think it should be 30 points, not 22.5.
This "homer" is just as likely to advise betting against USC as for it.
Good luck this year.
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Posted:
#65
[Quote: Originally Posted by SchrockMonkey] [/Quote
I guess that's why they call it gambling. The loss of 2 starting RBs can simply mean the competing QBs will just air it out to the best WR in college. If they are accurate, look out.
Kiffin hasn't done a trick play since dirt was invented. That makes me crazy.
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LSU -5.5 What is that high back then ???
to Master Nostra
Posted:
#74
what's up fellas, best of luck this season'
VOR - Auburn and Huskers are biggest plays, we mainly look at point difference from predicted score although yeah feel as well
got lucky on the Utah St-Utah toss up
adding
Missouri -38 (0.75u)
Missouri 58 Murray St 13 - Racers allowed 50+ against EIU, UTM and EKU
and allowed 65% and 8.1 YPP...Missouri outscoring FCS opponent avg. 60-5 over last three years, should be a good day for Josey to make his comeback
adding small play on team total No Illinois under 25.5 (0.35)....Hawkeyes LBs should give them a shot at containing Lynch along with Moore graduating and Daniels out
not quite as high on Texas Tech now with Brewer out and walk-on frosh Mayfield starting...although played pretty well in spring and fall camp.......also not as confident on LSU, feeling like TCU defense will be ready and frogs could hang around or pull the upset if LSU is dull as last year, Cameron should at least improve play calling though
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