Vandy at Kentucky

Kentucky enters this game at 3-2 coming off a bye week, and Vandy is also 3-2 and coming off a huge upset of #1 Alabama.  It was probably the biggest win in program history, and it was a game that Vandy dominated in the trenches, not a lucky win.  Kentucky is currently favored by 13.5 points.  Let's look at these two teams and see why the line is so high.  Kentucky has a great defense, and a below average offense.  The Wildcats are averaging 22 points per game (106th) and 321 yards per contest (115th).  On defense the Cats allow just 13.4 ppg (11th).  They held Georgia to 13 points and Ole Miss to 17.  Vanderbilt has actually looked like a top 30 team in every game but one, an embarrassing 36-32 loss to Georgia State.  Otherwise they have been impressive on both side of the ball.  They beat Virginia Tech 34-27, clobbered Alcorn State 55-0 and took Missouri into double OT before losing 30-27.  Then they come up and beat Alabama 40-35.  So is this a huge letdown spot for Vandy?  How will they handle going on the road to Lexington after such a huge win?  I would think some of that positive emotion would carry over this week.  Vandy has to enter this game with a lot of confidence.  They know they can go to a good bowl game.  Why wouldn't they be motivated?  They have looked great in 4 of their 5 games, so this is not the Vandy of old.  And to me, Kentucky is not a "cover" team.  They are good as a dog, but how can you ask a team that averages 22 points per game to cover a 13.5 point line?  I think that is way too many points.  I'll take Vandy +13.5. 

Thoughts?  Anyone like Kentucky in this spot?  Why is this line so high? 

Super Chicken

the line is there because it’s one of the worst spots of all time for Vanderbilt

on a normal week, say 3 weeks ago, then you grab Vandy, stoops teams get worse off bye weeks

best whatever you decide to do 

im not touching this game 

@WahooS

 Thanks for your thoughts.  I certainly respect your opinion.  To me, if Vandy had almost beat Bama but let it slip away in the final seconds, that would be a heartbreaker and harder to recover from.  But beating Alabama like they did, it seems like they would still be on a "high" rather than a letdown.  We will see.  An interesting game.  

@Super_Chicken

 that number is big for a cats offense that can be trash at times, I love Pavia as well, so many things point to Vandy but I can’t back them off the biggest win in program history to then go on the road against a beast of a defense 

I only responded to your thread because you asked for thoughts, you are good enough at this that you don’t my help 

Dude they almost beat Mizzoo and came into this one like we can beat anyone .. I think if it was another 'almost' they'd go home and do it all over .. but maaaan you see the aftermath of that one?.... its the same spot Bama was in last week I think we just expect one way or another Bama to come out flat and they were beyond that, totally inverted.. heard Paul Finebaum talkin about how Deboer did a long interview w him and all he talked about was UGA .. Milroe was on TV talkin UGA .. he said Saban wouldn't have even done the interview and only woulda talked about next week / rest of the season looking forward etc .. wouldn't have players out there distracted etc .. and that Saban was the master of getting guys back in the zone after a big win making the team think they could lose the next game if they F'd around .. basically eliminate the 'RAT POISON' as its now called .. just my view but THE BIIIIG EPIC PROGRAM WIN really is the hardest spot to bounce back from .. prob why I had Vandy big last week ... ML straight up .. ML in a couple parlays didn't quite get there but maaaaan ... screw you cal .. Miami another one and just a miracle they pulled themseves together down 25 in Q3 after the big epic comeback win coast 2 coast travel gameday super long and late late travel roadie spot .. 

Soooo .. its just a wonder how Vandy handles this situation in air so rarified that maybe the team just chokes mightily .. I saw the one Vandy player on the cover 3 podcast that night up late chattin with the guys prettttty darn drunk by that point and if ya ever been to Nashville and got a look at the party after I'd say he probably the tames night of anyone on the team .. 

Maybe the one saving grace to this spot is that Diego has been there with NMSU not the exact same sure but totally rarified air he's got his team showing up every week 14 game season into the champ game and only really died in a nasty spot had a 3rd straight roadie @hawaii after their big rivalry gm w NM .. but beat auburn on the road and got em @Liberty for the champ game next week to play a great game .. there's a clear diff there tho .. easier to clear the noise after winning a big roadie and then yer back on the plane mind in the zone for a champ game .. but this situation is ... TOTALLY NOT THAT .. lol .. just won the super bowl I can't see this next week on the road going well .. 

Alabama won big in GA then lost to this Vandy so Vandy will be the same , let down spot after won big . Just my 2c . Bol 

Stick with you  gut.  Past data has a very small sample size, because of what Vandy achieved last week.  What data is available is very strong to stay on the dog this week.  Vandy or nothing is the play according to my searches. 

If looking to fade Vandy after this big win its their next game against Ball St. they will be big chalk and a huge let down for them.  They could possibly lose to Ball St. wouldnt that be something?

Vany been disrespected, grab 14.5

Tough game,  The number does seem high but it usually is for a reason.  Vandy could still be celebrating and having the Rat Poison.  

@spottie2935

 I agree that I would fade Vandy as a large fave against Ball State.  But as a sizable dog against Ky this feels different to me. We'll see. 

Vandy blew there wad against Alabama. now everyone is gonna be on Vandy. they might get shutout this game!

@jjmurray

 A lot of Kentucky respect out there as will. I predict it’s not  one sided betting here. 

Vandy + points and a little ML