Posted:
#1
Week 4:
Washington -9.5 -110 (1u)
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TD Week 4
Posted:
#11
Since only a small bet - hope you lose that Georgia ML .....
>> setting up a MASSIVE bet on Georgia at Texas a few weeks later - if set up right (Texas kills OU), maybe my largest bet ever (previously Horns vs Georgia in Sugar Bowl)
BOL this week man ..........
'whooping cough' ? - smallpox and polio coming to *your* town soon ........
It is better to be feared - than to be loved.
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Posted:
#13
There HE is! "My Friend, My Good Friend! Friend of years, friend of tears. You're looking fit and fiddle."
..... alright, so I'm not completely sure what that movie quote means, but it is nice to see Mr. BA on the forum.
So,...... Mr. BA, I am too lazy to go find my Week 0 & Week 1 thread, but in there on about 8/16/24 +/- zero days is a Georgia -1.5 -115 play at Texas. Small play, but yes, Texas does have a tendency year to year to struggle the week after the RRR.
I think I think that Georgia had their bad game and will get "coached up" / "MF'ed" through their off week heading into the Alabama game. So, if that happens you won't get your perfect storm for that massive play you're dreaming about. But if Alabama can somehow pull it off at home, then I'm fine with the small loss; in that case I'll grab my popcorn then and I will be cheering for your large play in that spot. Good stuff!
BOL of this week, ..... and stay clear of that whooping cough. Hopefully Boise doesn't get it from Portland State. I need lots of points out of Boise.
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Posted:
#14
Quote Originally Posted by TD21:
Week 4: Washington -9.5 -110 (1u) Added: Ohio U. / Kentucky Under 42.5 -110 (1u) Duke -13.5 -110 (0.5u) (0.75u) East Carolina +7.5 -110 (0.5u) Buffalo +15 -110 (0.3u) San Jose State +14.5 -110 (0.3u) Week 5 Lookahead: Georgia ML -120 (0.3u)
Week 4: Washington -9.5 -110 (1u) Added: Ohio U. / Kentucky Under 42.5 -110 (1u) Duke -13.5 -110 (0.5u) (0.75u) East Carolina +7.5 -110 (0.5u) Buffalo +15 -110 (0.3u) San Jose State +14.5 -110 (0.3u) Week 5 Lookahead: Georgia ML -120 (0.3u)
Really happy to see someone else like this Kentucky UNDER .... I agree. I saw this one first knowing Ohio has a tough dee for a MAC team and so so Off. that will be hard pressed to score much of anything vs Wildcats 
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
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Posted:
#15
@MudPhud3
It's weird, for some lines they adjust pretty well like they have solid PR #s. Then in other cases, it's like they take the Massey rating number and throw it up there with no adjustment for their own numbers. Somewhat look ahead spot for Boise. And Boise State with some issues on defense, at least against good teams. Or maybe they're germophobic and want to get the game over quickly. Anyway, if they want to, Boise can name the score and get Jeanty another 6 TDs. Weber State is down this year, especially on offense (really last two years on offense), but they hammered PSU and put up points too. Not quite as many as WSU, but Portland State is struggling out of the gate this year is all I can say. And very young at WR is my recollection. Number gets high enough, might have to buy back some to minimize risk, but that feels like a "scared money, don't make money" situation. Part of the reason I went as much as I did on the opener I guess, but part of me wants to let it all ride.
BOL this week.
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Posted:
#16
@Last2thirst
The only half azz attempt I can come up with to play devil's advocate on that game's Total is that Kentucky doesn't come out focused after playing so hard in the near upset of Georgia. If their D comes out with no effort early is the narrative I can come up with to hit this total. They get behind early and have to put up some points to make a comeback. The Kentucky front 7 is really solid, just an "average" effort should slow down OU enough. ........ maybe OU turnovers leading to UK short field and points off turnovers,...... that narrative could be another explanation to scare us off. Anyway, anything is possible, but more often than not this matchup stays Under. Hopefully if there is any sleepwalking by UK it's more noticeable on offense than defense. OU defense would struggle more with a strong passing team, but UK hasn't really proved that yet this year. 30-7 ish
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Posted:
#20
@Last2thirst
underrated site - gives a quick snapshot into this spot (situation > off loss /totals)
https://www.teamrankings.com/ncf/trends/ats_trends/?range=yearly_since_2021
Many teams have a clear identity off a loss (or win) - Kentucky is consistently about 65% UNDER off a SU loss
It is better to be feared - than to be loved.
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