Some of my week 1 thoughts and plays

@spottie2935

 I like the Texas A&M play…Please continue the dialogue…Elko and the rabid Aggie fan base are tired of hearing about t.u. as they call us at The University of Texas at Austin.   Normally, TAMU comes out half assed against weak early season competition…Under Sumlin and Fisher they would putz around, eventually kick it in and either not cover or cover late against inferior comp.  UTSA is well coached and no slouch.   But, I think with the tough test in weak 2 at N Dome, they will need to execute at a high level in week 1 in front of the home fans to get the bugs worked out prior to the trip to South Bend.     I have been to games at Kyle, and those fans are nuts.    Their alumni and fans expect a dominate performance by the Aggies and I concur with you that is what they are going to get.

I also lean Utah -6.5 and Indiana -23…

You are an excellent capper…This pursuit is not easy, so to be successful, one has to optimize logic with a little luck to sustain success…

The last game of the week 

TCU vs UNC 

F and week=1 and day=Monday and line<-1 and season>2004

8-16 ATS 

a week 1 Monday favorite with a line<-1 

From 2005 to present.  It’s the same scenario as Miami late in the week game closing out the casino with profits and destruction of all remaining favorites parlays. 

TCU closed out last season on fire but their start to the season was quite the opposite. 
5 of TCU’s last 6 games they scored at least 34 points.  The other game they scored 20 and covered. 

TCU +3 @ Baylor push 

Okla st & TCU -10 destruction okst was trash 

ARZ @ TCU -11 destruction arz was trash 

TCU -3.5 @ Cincy 20-13 

Bowl TCU -10 vs. L Laf 34-3 

TCU closed hard against some of the worst big 12 teams excluding Cincy but Cincy lost 5 in a row to close 2024.  They took care of business for sure

Belichick is given an off season and 2 extra days.  No one knows what’s the possibility is here.  I bet since he is a dog here he is going to elevate.  Give that man points I’m riding and the night it self is already a highly profitable night for the books. 

@LonghornHoosier

 The dialog is Tex AM sucked ats last season  

playing a UTSa team that closed out hot.  Let’s see if UTsA can stay close.  

that’s it 

I’m not a favorite guy but the scenario has the line low enough a hot start for AM and it’s curtains 

How teams that close out the previous season influence week 1 lines.  These no science for the lines makers to adjust lines maxed upon off season roster changes.  They’ll adjust 

@LonghornHoosier

 Clean slate this season. 

Ask questions about football.  The end.  

I won’t turn this form upside down like previous seasons.  It’s not a warning it’s nothing!  Read into this statement as good vibes.  Trust my respectful,  peaceful forum and string. 

Lots are watching me and they are going to form an opinion of you too.  I’m in control of how I look. 

Best wishes. 

Utah a road chalk?  No opinion 

Ucla a home fog with what should be a motivated QB and an upgrade for UCLA 

UCLA were dogs 10 times last season and I don’t see that happening unless Nico isn’t who he is or an injury occurs.  Add that up and if UCLA is to flip from dogs to favorites they have to win games.  

I am not involved yet but I’ll be watching in game.  This UCLA team could be a valuable dog.  I’m sure Nico is motivated but I need more in game analysis. 

Fog =dog auto correct typing to fast on my phone 

@spottie2935

 ND doesn't schedule road games against top 20 teams? In what sport? Badminton? They literally played USC and Michigan every year for decades alternating home and away. They just beat A&M. Played Clemson and OSU. Not that any of that matters to this year.??

Notre Dame:

as favorites against ranked opponents in games not at home.  Since 1995 25 games! 

They have the scheduling mastered.  This is a very rare game for them and they do it in week 1.  They don’t play non home ranked teams. 

This is the first top 10 team that they have faced since 2017 and that was to #7 Miami Florida. 

There is not a lot of data available for a notre dame game with a max of 25 results.  If the line is close to 0 and not -5 notre dame fails a lot.  1-4  ATS.

  They are more successful when they play top 25 marginal teams later in the season with bigger lines.   

@Cornholio711

 Favorites or dogs? You have data or something to show me? I don’t mind being informed.  

settle down it’s football talk

im not attacking im search data and posting what I see. If you have more information or something I didn’t communicate I’ll correct myself. 

On another site they allow photo shares and if I could show you the example I would.  Unfortunately it’s not permitted here. 

Ok I’m looking at covers to confirm some of this.  

You missed TAM last season NOTD was a dog.  Not admissible 

-7 @USC USC wasn’t ranked according to my findings 

2023 -3 @Clemson loss 

Show me and tell everyone here exactly what you see, lines scores playoff game or not.  Scheduled games are not playoff games.  

im not bothered by your questions but you got a little excited.  

it’s ok let’s see what you have with more details 

What I see :  

When NOTD goes to these great locations against quality teams top teams,  they usually are not favored.  If anyone has more information than I can provide with proof or a date I’ll look it up.  

Notre Dame lines have been so favorable lately they only were -7 at Purdue last year.    

I bet dogs and sometimes people take offense.  

Best of luck on the season spottie   

Thanks my friend 

@Coloneljim

 Rock on Jim 

I appreciate you 

I have bet back in to Colorado at over 6.5 +165

I have completed my research on them and seeing the vibe up there and watching the under get hammered I’m putting in a reversal for 2 units 

after doing more homework I’m also adding UCKA over 5.5 wins +135 

they did okay covering as dogs and should continue to improve.  Nice could really elevate them. 

UCLA has been dormant?  Check 

UCLA got a QB now.  I have to add them to my week 1 

And LHH don’t take this as disrespect it’s 100% not.  It’s football talk. 

I saw something I like.  If it’s not congruent with you ignore it.  I share wild stuff sometimes.  Right now it’s absolutely absurd to ask all of this on Nico Iamaleava. 

UCLA +2500 to make the playoff 

why not.  Throw money away but still a good QB has a shot. 

Iamaleava has no mobility. He was sacked on 26% of all pressured snaps last season. And now the Oline at UCLA is made up of journeymen portal guys with limited reps. Def one of the worst olines in the conference. And the losses on defense are massive. Maybe they surprise to the upside but I have them at 4.5 wins.

@Laroja

 I respect your knowledge but in my opinion he is young. It’s 25-1 and 5.5 wins to me it’s worth a shot.  

I don’t really care that sometimes I just post gambles. 

If  I’m wrong I’ll recover

@spottie2935

 And if you want a benchmark for UTSA, Texas beat them in Austin last season 56 to 7...TAMU won't be that explosive, but they are a legit Top 15 team and contender for the playoff if things go their way...Sure, N Dame is a lookahead, but with this being the first game of the season, and after last season ended for the Aggies with 3 losses, they will be focussed, and TCB with upstart and well coached UTSA, on the merits...TAMU -21 will be a play for me...Thank you for the head's up...

UTAH will control both lines of scrimmage and its defense will be a nightmare for Nico...in my opinion...As you always say, Defense comes along first...Nico may be outstanding by the end of the season...but,  I am betting in week 1, he and the Bruins will struggle a bit...

If if if UCLA comes out the gate with a win that would be something.  Terrible history and a dog team.  

If they lose game one it’s probably just a hype team with a big stay over paid QB.  

I’ll gamble on the star QB let him prove me wrong.  I like betting dogs that score but Shedeur Sanders he is not. 

Utah is a good benchmark for UCLA.  Great matchup for future games.