I already discussed:
Colorado +4.5
Cincy +7
===================
Miami Fl. +3
I could find -_+.3.5 with extra juice but these non Saturday end of week 1 games usually don’t need it. Notre dame on the road has little history against top 20 teams. The history they have is poor.
Cal+3
N.Car +3
N.Wesrn +6
Temple -1
Purdue-16.5
@AtlantaGambler
Their lines were difficult last season even when they were not doing well. TCU (6-6 in 2024 but 2-3 when line was >-3)beat the teams they should have but failed against even or better teams. I feel like UNC is getting a few extra here based upon so many UNC failures in 2024. A UNC cover here will hype UNC up and bettelors will notice this and adjust their UNC ratings higher that they should.
TCU problems in 2024 were on defense. Thats what they have to fix.
Before I go into my fairly simple reasonings and grouping these teams. I have dabbled in these lines. Not all these lines and teams are a full unit as of yet. Sometimes preseason 
Player issues arise.
id like to know about what you know about the teams you mentioned. That way im guaranteed some feedback. Maybe I missed something and I can add something to my tool box from your thinking. I saw you won a covers contest or something about Super Bowl? That is clearly an indicator you're on to something very good.
Most of what I look at is lines and past lines. Clearly these sports books, linesmakers, business men, are taking in large sums of money.
I’m looking at lines, past data from lines, from wins losses in situations. Hot annd cold streaks, and all the stuff on paper that can be found in research. This can provide a physiological “feeling”or observance and including prejudices on or against some teams.
Purdue: After Notre Dame lost to NIU last year the game vs Notre Dame was Purdue +7. I then bet and lost on Purdue +2 (Checking my notes that opener was +4 and fairly quickly fell to +2) the following week vs Oregon St. The books completely missed on Purdue lines last season. Furthermore Purdues schedule was way over their head. Finally Purdue caught a Decent line vs. Michigan St and covered that game , only to get thrashed again against a team having an outstanding season.
I targeted Purdue this season, much like a I targeted Colorado the last 2 season and add to that Vandy in 2024. These teams were terrible, I mean despicable. The best time of year to be these teams is early in the season when the people that have to see something to believe it don’t get on them.
Ball States record was 3-9 last year. Onne of those wins was against one of the worst FCS teams in Kent State, that win was by 2 points and Ball State gave up 35 points in that game. Ball State were double digit dogs in 5 conference games last season. Vandy was -27 against Ball St. (Vandy coming off their atrocious 2023 season).
Ball St in their 8 conference games averaged 37.25 points against in 2024.
My approach is not X&O’s. Its not ALL about what I watch and see. I love meandering teams. Now you see it now you don’t. I love bettors to be influenced by one hit wonder and also blunder teams. I have isolated a lot of my week one plays cases upon my theories and reserve and I enjoy when asked why I’m betting a crazy bad team like Purdue laying -16.5 when Ball State faced that same line against other conference opponents last year.
Do I have to scout Ball State or are they basically the same team with a little bit of improvement? When’s the last time Bsll St ever competed for a MAC title? I didn’t look but I have a categorized them as a certain level team.
Purdue, Vandy, Colorado were completely desperate in the off season after the previous seasons. If they don’t improve I’d be shocked and question their existence in the B10.
I’m short on my personal time but you can google or use Wikipedia yourself to see their personnel adds and subtractions.
Zi am a gambling man and Zi am betting after all the coaching and player movements in the off season these business men at Purfue were on the hot seat and went to work much like other piss poor teams to not only improve the team but keep their jobs.
Im in early on Purdue sight unseen. Ball State , is Ball State and will always be Ball State.
Cincy plain and simple the same thing. In 2024, Cincy was in a hunt for the Big 12 Championship they were -5 to ASU and covered that game. Then proceeded to dump the rest of their games and lose all momentum, confidence and shock their fan base. 0-5 finish.
Cincy retains a real solid QB and as I mentioned about Purdue we should see some motivation and focus from the bad taste they left behind in 2024
You can watch this video about who one of their sleeper teams in the B12 is, yes Cincy.
https://youtu.be/ABUdFTXUDCE?si=eAPK_fIO2i7OhJRf
Nebraska ? Yes improving but laying A TD line? No! Nebraska is a dog team. They are something like 35-58 SU since 2017? One or 2 bowl games?
7-6 last year?
it’s a Neutral site but -7? Why? It’s a trust thing. Cincy demolished so many betting ticket to close the season no one saw, sees any promise on them.
Im exposing the eyeball test on what Cincy did and the lack of merits Nebraska has shown. The line of -7 for Nebraska is a reaction and I believe the books are hanging a number like this because they are A little clueless as well. The books could lay -3 but they didn’t. Thats a tell for me.
I believe im getting the best of this matchup and extra points.
Same with Cal and Oregon State. Oregon State is in limbo do they have a conference? The are riding this number based upon recent excellence from 2023 and before. They were -3 to Nevada last season and Cal whoops them 7-44. I get the revenge angle but give me some points not -3.
yes Duke QB transfer Maalik Murphy is in but teams in transitions are not good favorites. Oregon State is traditionally a sleeping dog team.
They gave up 42 points to Nevada. Fix that mess.
All the dogs I listed have their challenges but do do the favorites. I am trying to pick teams with motivation or an angle against teams that won’t be favorites all season. The favorites are going to have meanderings. I am trying to exploit teams with them with some sort of preseason motivations or lines that could be exploited.
Notre same on the road. They wlclosed in game short. Now look back at their history of how they do on the road against a top 20 team. Not much history because they don’t schedule these games. Higher than high Notre Dame gives points to a team that is motivated enough to Sign Carson Beck. Beck is out of favor because he didn’t score enough points to cover -28 point spreads last year. Then he failed in the bracket.
He’s a dog here. A fresh start and not playing a team that traditionally plays top 20 teams in the road.
Notre dame doesn’t score 40 points against their scheduled opponents. They run and play defense. You watch on a singled out non Saturday game Carson and Miami win this. They Gain all kinds of respect and eyeballs.
I know some of you might point out the Notre Dame success in the Bracket. That’s fair.
My counter to that is they list to Northern Illinois and we’re only -7 to Purdue last season as well.
ND doesn’t play a Top 20 team on the road very often. They are going into a gauntlet here. Will they survive? I don’t know exactly but I get points. I get a non Saturday prime time game when teams will be ready.
We’ll see, I know some of you will argue. That’s fine.
I try to beat lines and use less historically great winning teams when in favorite situations against perceived strengths or weaknesses. Week 1 is a different animal. We all know the matchups are not the best. How does a book find a balanced slate of dogs and favorites? If it’s favorites and unbalanced every season they get killed.
I believe that they exploit some matchups based upping impressions not facts. I’m trying and will exploit this.
Week 1 games played on Sunday when the dog line is between 1-7 the dog is 18-8. Ats
Since 2017 the favorites are 1-6 straight up.
All those mismatch games that a lot of people won laying those -35 lines and all “LIVE “ the parlay tickets that people bet this game for fun because it’s the only game on tv on Sunday on a holiday weekend.
Go to Vegas on Labor Day. See how packed the books are for a single game. The books only lost this game 8 times out of the last 26 times. That’s not luck. Thats business. It’s not 50/50 and random.
I don't bet a large slate every week, 2-5 games at most and not gonna bet til week of game. That's what works for me. Concentrate on Big10 for the most part. So having one in common outside of Big10 with anyone is rare.
And I'm not sure how sharp my mind is. 
Initial feel is Temple has been a step above Umass. Portal didn't elevate either one, IMO.
I do have a rule about staying away from lousy team vs lousy team and this likely violates my rule. New coaches may add a waiver to that rule here. 
Can Ball state score in this game? That total of 50.5 seems a bit low.
@Laroja
I’m not betting the total on this game. Purdue has probably fixed a lot of their problems but it’s going to take a few seasons to get back up there. Scoring and slow starts killed them last 2seasons running. Only 4 times in the last 19 games did they score any 1st quarter points.
I can’t bet over in the dark in Purdue’s games until I see some sort of normalcy. I have my eyes on this game though. Purdue could be a sleeper and even if they blow out Ball State it won’t get recognized. If Purdue doesnt take care of business against Ball St. I expect better lines ahead and the new players and coaching staff should start coming together. I see a rise but within that I better see better play as well. This is an opportunity to do so.
If Purdue is penalized and sloppy I’ll put them on hold until they come together. Ball St shouldnt push them into penalties and mistakes. Those type of occurrences will be self inflicted.
Established in 1995,
Best of Luck. Curious how UNC does with new coach and all the soap opera drama
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