Some of my week 1 thoughts and plays

I've looked more into this game and it's quite interesting. Purdue has so many different personnel changes from coaches to players that it's hard to evaluate them. Ball state on the other hand is a bottom feeder in the MAC that is losing much of their experience and is rated the 2nd worst team just above Kent State in FBS with the power rating I'm using. MAC teams usually want to avoid injuries in these matchups; just pick the check and focus on conference play. 

@spottie2935

 i'm seeing +3.5 (-122) 

@Laroja

 My idea is that Purdue’s motivation is early there as they are making strides to elevate from last year.  Now maybe -17 is too much to ask here.  That’s the question but I’ve grouped a bunch of teams that either finished poorly and or were just flat out poor the whole 2024 season. 

I have tried to dive into these teams to make diluted they are attempting to head north.  Remember these “executives” jobs are to elevate and fix things.  That doesn’t guarantee covers.  

The bottom line to me is these poor teams, such as:

Purdue 

Michigan St 

Cincinnati

and a few others I bet the lines adjust but the team has to elevate past their prior season.  

I did target Vandy last season and that went well.  The problem is Vandy also failed as favorites.  I’m betting on some of these past poor teams to get me my 55 to 60% ats record.  So yea bumps and bruises will be had.  If I was more patient I might lay off these 3 score favorites but if I manage my bankroll properly I’ll should attain my recent success.  

Purdue makes my list as a bet but I do share concerns.   

Another thing I’m considering is consensus because I’m evaluating Purdue to be out of the public eye but what I failed to think of is who wants to be a 3 win MAC team against a big 10 that should improve. 

I have the right idea here but I might be a week early and too confident laying -17 is a good idea. This is currently a bet but consensus and line moves may adjust my thinking. 

Something to consider is the past data strongly supports the under in this matchup so that’s a good possibility as well. 

im just putting some thing out for discussions and meandering my way through this. 

@maxwagers781

 I don’t use extra juice I actually prefer selling points.  These week 1 non Saturday games have a strong history of the final score being Decisive.  

Im counting on Notre Dame to regress after last seasons excellent ats record and making the championship. Add to that they don’t do well in regular season games against top 20 teams.  I’m also very confident because of my success in non Saturday week 1 dogs.  The favorites have a strong history of failures. 

if I lose I lose but Notre Dame is very trusted and successfully confirmed as trusted after last seasons excellent.

 I am betting the floor drops out in what has been a terrible spot for trusted teams. 

@spottie2935

depending on the mood, i prefer to skip over a game if i didn't get the odds i wanted. i'm moving onto the next one like it was a speed dating event.

that game time starting spot produced a good game last season. the usc trojans beat the lsu tigers with a touchdown with 8 seconds left. two seasons ago florida st upset lsu on sunday night. so there you have two season opener losses for lsu tigers which set the trend. and with teams fishing in the tranfer portal it looks like another season of upsets!

@maxwagers781

 Hope so on the upsets 

@spottie2935

GL this season.

@Boa33

 You as well thank you.  Nice to see you