A winner here last Saturday (8-5, .615). In fact, the top eight went 6-2 (.750). So far, five winning weeks out of seven. Albeit, producing an overall of just .528 (47-42), which is barely above breakeven (.524). Assessing every game on the board, the box likes all of these: 1) CentralMich(+6.5)/BowlingGreen 2) SanJose(+4.5)/UtahSt 3) Connecticut(+2.5)/BostonCollege 4) Michigan(-5.5)/Washington 5) SamHouston(+3)/UTEP L 6) Georgia(-6.5)/Mississippi 7) Iowa(-2.5)/PennState 8) Alabama(-8)/Tenn 9) Vanderbilt(-2.5)/LSU 10) NotreDame(-8)/USC 11) Rutgers(+17.5)/Oregon 12) Virginia(-17.5)/WashingtonSt 13) California(-10)/NorthCarolina 14) Duke(-2.5)/GeorgiaTech 15) Stanford(+18)/FloridaSt 16) UCLA(-2.5)/Maryland
The algorithm’s top two selections have gone 9-5 (.643).
This week’s edition of (maybe boring) tech talk is -- weekly line movement. As in, does directional-movement over the five or six preceding days forecast a winner? The logic there is – the ‘collective mood’ of players moving the line ($) has value. Many years-ago I encountered at least two published studies that concluded there was no-edge in doing that watch. However, there’s never any harm in a current data dive to see if anything recent might be lurking.
And of course, a quick peek at the database tells all (2013-24, 7583 games). In doing so, I disregarded the magnitude of the movement; early line versus final line. First off, movement was evenly divided between the Home and Away teams, with only 15% (1134) of games having no movement. When the Away team gained points, it had a Success Rate of .516. Conversely, when it lost points, it’s SR was .510. Thus, it must be reported.......no (lurking) movement-edge to be had.
Sliding laterally on that study though, you might be curious just how often the Away team was victorious in that 11-year base. That would be .511 (3816-3648-119), suggesting a tiny-bit more value in the road team.
We have 59 on the board; once again surpassing the weekly-opportunity of all 2025 weeks past. Good luck, TheKingfish
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
A winner here last Saturday (8-5, .615). In fact, the top eight went 6-2 (.750). So far, five winning weeks out of seven. Albeit, producing an overall of just .528 (47-42), which is barely above breakeven (.524). Assessing every game on the board, the box likes all of these: 1) CentralMich(+6.5)/BowlingGreen 2) SanJose(+4.5)/UtahSt 3) Connecticut(+2.5)/BostonCollege 4) Michigan(-5.5)/Washington 5) SamHouston(+3)/UTEP L 6) Georgia(-6.5)/Mississippi 7) Iowa(-2.5)/PennState 8) Alabama(-8)/Tenn 9) Vanderbilt(-2.5)/LSU 10) NotreDame(-8)/USC 11) Rutgers(+17.5)/Oregon 12) Virginia(-17.5)/WashingtonSt 13) California(-10)/NorthCarolina 14) Duke(-2.5)/GeorgiaTech 15) Stanford(+18)/FloridaSt 16) UCLA(-2.5)/Maryland
The algorithm’s top two selections have gone 9-5 (.643).
This week’s edition of (maybe boring) tech talk is -- weekly line movement. As in, does directional-movement over the five or six preceding days forecast a winner? The logic there is – the ‘collective mood’ of players moving the line ($) has value. Many years-ago I encountered at least two published studies that concluded there was no-edge in doing that watch. However, there’s never any harm in a current data dive to see if anything recent might be lurking.
And of course, a quick peek at the database tells all (2013-24, 7583 games). In doing so, I disregarded the magnitude of the movement; early line versus final line. First off, movement was evenly divided between the Home and Away teams, with only 15% (1134) of games having no movement. When the Away team gained points, it had a Success Rate of .516. Conversely, when it lost points, it’s SR was .510. Thus, it must be reported.......no (lurking) movement-edge to be had.
Sliding laterally on that study though, you might be curious just how often the Away team was victorious in that 11-year base. That would be .511 (3816-3648-119), suggesting a tiny-bit more value in the road team.
We have 59 on the board; once again surpassing the weekly-opportunity of all 2025 weeks past. Good luck, TheKingfish
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