ND vs PSU write up

Been capping this game for days now. There is not a clear cut edge either way. This is not a game to go heavy on , like we’ve been doing the last couple of weeks. My numbers have ND winning by - 4.55, and I’ll always go with that . So I’m on ND - 1.5 or just the ML on maybe both. If you’re on PSU , I can see and understand why. This game should be extremely close and down to the wire. If my numbers are on point like they have been, we win by a FG & a safety. PSU has the better offensive metrics and ND have the better defensive metrics. I like defense. Everyone knows , I’m a huge SOS capper. ND’s SOS is anywhere between 12th and 17th & PSU is anywhere between 5th & 16th. Depending on who’s giving the data. I give the coaching advantage to ND and his staff. I believe Freeman , is smarter and more creative than Franklin. PSU’s wide outs, don’t match up with ND’s corners, and PSU’s stud TE, and ND’s safeties are a wash. The main reason I like ND other than the coaching advantage, is PSU’s tackling. They have missed 17% of their tackles on the season. The way RL , Love and Price run so violently, I think that gives ND their biggest edge. ND is also 2- 0 vs top 10 competition this year, where as PSU is 0 - 2. If PSU can’t run the ball effectively, I believe it will be a long night for them. Tracy and Singleton are very good backs, but I like ND’s backs much more. ND stacks the box mostly with 7 or 8 guys because, they can man coverage all night long. PSU also plays man @ almost 53% of the time as well so I don’t think either QB’s goes off tomorrow night. This game will come down to mistakes; IE penalties and TO’s, coaching, field position and the run game. I’ll be on ND - 1.5 , ND ML and the under FG, and under 1st half. I don’t know how much yet, but that’s what I’m playing. Maybe I go 2 - 2 and loose a lil juice , or maybe , I’ll sweep the board. Anyways GL to all as always. 

What numbers are you getting for the first half? I have 21.5. I wish I'd played it when it was 23.5. 

For some reason this game is really difficult for me. Even though I've watched these two teams my whole life. 

@Rolexsports

 

  "I give the coaching advantage to ND and his staff. I believe Freeman , is smarter and more creative than Franklin."

 

That coaching move late in the game he pulled was the best I'd ever heard of: 4th and 2...Up just one score....around their own 40 yard line, late in the game.......The punting unit is out there for a punt......then the offense goes out there, punt team hustles off.....Meanwhile Georgia PANICS. Sends their defense back on the field in response.....and ND QB gets them to go offsides. I felt that coaching move won the game. ND had obviously prepared for that, because they executed it flawlessly.

@ Naru. Best play I’ve seen all year by one of the good teams. 

@ 2711 same 1st half line as you. 

@Rolexsports

 Excellent write up I already liked Irish Bol to all backers 

@Rolexsports

 First thing he writes is this is a game to not go heavy on. Then proceeds to make 4 bets 

GL Kidd. 

@ risky. You’re a dumbass! My small wagers are probably a lot more than your largest wagers. GTFO here.. 

@Rolexsports

 Glad to see that we’re on the same side. 
Now I feel better about my bet.
plus it’s comforting to know that teams in the playoffs with the higher net points per drive against their opponent 8-0su /7-1ats.

The Fighting Irish 

ND is also 1-1 vs MAC conference teams this year, where as PSU is 2-0.

I bet the under at 47.5, I’m just not sure I can get down again with it dropping but am still thinking about it. I wonder if it will go back up before kickoff…

go irish

PSU has the better backfield with Allen & Singleton.

Solid writeup, I played Notre Dame for a bit, would not be shocked if Penn State won this game bit your right, the edge to the Irish. 

Good luck Rolex.  

GL guys! Yes this will be a really great game. I’m always confident in my capping. I’ll post my amount per pick later on, but I’ve confident in everything I stated or , I wouldn’t have said anything. I don’t blindly wager a bet. Yes Mr. Freedo, that 47.5 is golden , but I’m pretty sure under 45 is good too. GL and let’s go !!

Your last write up on the Lions -3 won and the one before that on Bengals ML was also spot on so I guess this one has a good chance of winning too, hopefully by a margin of more than one point.

@ Bet- lag. I believe ND wins by more than 4 points. PSU’s secondary is nothing to fear . BSU slung the ball all over the field on them. 

@rosswin97

 This is a game of top ten teams. Not MAC teams

@ Bet - Lag. I also had a write up on ND & PSU last week, which both hit. Had 3 bets on the ND/GA and swept the board. 

did I lie though 

Well the passing stats for the game vs Boise may have been a little skewed.. Two busted coverage  break  downs  left 2 guys wide open that went for huge yards..  Could it happen again  sure..  Also PSU was playing so many guys up on the line to stop  the run determined that Gentry was not beating them.. Taking their chances vs the pass.. At the end of the day PSU was ranked 27th in the country vs the pass coming into the game.. And Carter out for most of the game hurt them pressure wise.. IMO him playing is the huge factor.. Is  he playing TBD..  Franklin never talks injuries..  I am curious to see what Andy the OC has cooked up for this game a trick play or two they have been saving IMO is coming.. I expect a close on either way but my gut says PSU +2...  GL .. It should be interesting as I like Allur over Nd QB position.. Don't see those QB runs from a slow white QB working vs a very very quick PSU defense..  Once again GL.. Nice year you have had..

Yea i believe i tailed some of those last week. Would be nice if you kept a record for those who wants to tail.

Will be interested to read your wildcard plays this weekend for sure!