NCAA Championship Week Ponderings

Friday, Dec. 5th - The appetizers 

Kennesaw St. -2' JACKSONVILLE ST - Owls first year HC Jerry Mack gets my vote for C-USA coach of the year for the job he's done, taking a team that finished 2-10 a year ago (their first season in the FBS) and leading them to a 9-3 record this season. On the surface Kennesaw St. looks like the better team here, winners of nine of their last ten (7-2 ATS), but they're 0-3 SU and ATS in the second of back to back road trips over the last two years. That includes an earlier 35-26 upset loss to these same Gamecocks. Kenny St. had 143 more yards in that game but committed four turnovers. Meanwhile, Jax St. went 8-4 this season, with all four losses occuring on the road. At home they've gone 5-0 SU and 4-0 ATS, all as an underdog, and are going for a second straight C-USA championship under first year HC Charles Kelly.

JAMES MADISON -23' Troy - The Trojans played their way into the Sun Belt title game with a 28-18 upset win at Southern Miss, and are now 5-1 ATS on the road, including three outright wins as a dog. That one loss though was a 33-0 beatdown at ODU, a game in which they were outgained by a whopping 365 yards. The Dukes blasted that same Monarchs team, 63-27, outgaining them by 339 yards. JMU is just 3-4 ATS as a double digit favorite this year, but if you look at each team's statistics it's hard to see Troy staying within three TDs in this one, especially with temperatures in Harrisonburg forecasted to be in the 20s. The Dukes may or may not cover the big number, but I'm not stepping in front of them here. A win and a Virginia loss SHOULD put them in the CFP. Under 47' appears to be the safer bet, given the weather conditions.

North Texas -2' TULANE -  This is the game of the day, with the AAC title and a CFP berth on the line. The Mean Green have been impressive, sporting an 11-1 record (9-2 ATS), but their toughest games have been at home, and their two best road wins were early in the season, at WMU and at Army, AND they needed overtime to win both. The Green Wave have played the tougher schedule with three Power Four opponents and back to back road games at UTSA and Memphis, and have gone 10-2 SU including 6-0 at home. This is Tulane's fourth straight American title game and they're the more battle tested team. This game figures to be a slog, with heavy rain in the forecast. If North Texas has a weakness it's their run defense. They've allowed 207.9 yards a game (4.9 YPR) and Tulane runs for 167.8 YPG (4.7 YPR). The Green Wave also have the better run defense (3.5 YPR) against a tougher schedule. Lean to the home dog in this one, and under 67' looks good too.

BOISE ST. -5' Unlv - This is the third straight year these teams have met for the MWC title. The Broncos have won the last ten meetings, including a 56-31 rout earlier this season. BSU broke open a close game with a 28-0 run in the second half, and they compiled 558 total yards to 476 for the Rebels. Broncos QB Maddux Madsen returns to the starting lineup after being injured five weeks ago. This is another game where weather could be a factor with rain in the forecast. A lot of money on Boise has driven this line up. I'm not quite as confident. UNLV can play.

Leaning UNLV/Boise St U58ish.....they put up 87 points a couple months ago....now Vegas says the winning might not get to 30.....

Last year's game was at or below freezing and UNLV struggled in the cold temperature. This game won't be as cold but it's supposed to be raining on and off. Turnovers could be an issue with a wet ball. Also, will Madsen be rusty after being sidelined for over a month? Tough call. BOL if you play it. 

Any thing else catch your eye for tomorrow?