The rolleater done some munchin week1 as I gave 3.5% of the roll to the books. My two initial plays were winners with Illinois and South Carolina. I was pretty much set on betting those two only, but I couldn't resist the temptation to bet more games with it being week 1. So I picked 4 straight losers, with one being a shitty MAC team (Toledo) and 2 (USC/Cincy) being teams playing their first road game with a new coach. Total crackhead type breakdown on my part. So on to week 2.
YTD: 2-4 -3.5%
Week 2
Tennessee (+13.5) 2% This is a tough game to cap with Tennessee's lack of returners coupled with Oregon's apparent explosiveness in their week 1 blowout of a poor NM team. Tennessee with Florida on deck while Oregon St plays Portland St.. Tenny is young on O with new backs, new Qb, and a completely rebuilt line. But that line is big and powerful, and I think Tennessee runs for about 5 yards per carrie in this game giving QB Sims the chance to make some big plays. Tennessee's defense should be able to slow Oregon's offense down and keep them in it.
If these two had played at the end of lastyear's regular season I would've had a line of Tennessee (+.396) with an incredible 81 percent chance to cover the 13.5. I gotta keep it at 2% because of the huge transition of coaches and players for the Vols, but these numbers would usually warrant my first 5% play of the year.
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
The rolleater done some munchin week1 as I gave 3.5% of the roll to the books. My two initial plays were winners with Illinois and South Carolina. I was pretty much set on betting those two only, but I couldn't resist the temptation to bet more games with it being week 1. So I picked 4 straight losers, with one being a shitty MAC team (Toledo) and 2 (USC/Cincy) being teams playing their first road game with a new coach. Total crackhead type breakdown on my part. So on to week 2.
YTD: 2-4 -3.5%
Week 2
Tennessee (+13.5) 2% This is a tough game to cap with Tennessee's lack of returners coupled with Oregon's apparent explosiveness in their week 1 blowout of a poor NM team. Tennessee with Florida on deck while Oregon St plays Portland St.. Tenny is young on O with new backs, new Qb, and a completely rebuilt line. But that line is big and powerful, and I think Tennessee runs for about 5 yards per carrie in this game giving QB Sims the chance to make some big plays. Tennessee's defense should be able to slow Oregon's offense down and keep them in it.
If these two had played at the end of lastyear's regular season I would've had a line of Tennessee (+.396) with an incredible 81 percent chance to cover the 13.5. I gotta keep it at 2% because of the huge transition of coaches and players for the Vols, but these numbers would usually warrant my first 5% play of the year.
when i saw this game i crossed it off my board right away. dont know if tenn will be looking ahead and dont know how good oregon really is. new mexico is brutal. probablly the worst team in the country. if i had a lean it would be tenn with oregon flying cross country. bol
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when i saw this game i crossed it off my board right away. dont know if tenn will be looking ahead and dont know how good oregon really is. new mexico is brutal. probablly the worst team in the country. if i had a lean it would be tenn with oregon flying cross country. bol
GL for week 2 Kaplan. I too like OK in this spot with FL ST, but I am staying away as I think there are much easier pickings out there. I think the TENN game is also one of the tougher ones.
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GL for week 2 Kaplan. I too like OK in this spot with FL ST, but I am staying away as I think there are much easier pickings out there. I think the TENN game is also one of the tougher ones.
I don't have a good write up for this one other than my math models. Going off of lastyear's data at the end of the regular season I would've had a line of Oklahoma(-22.61). Seems crazy but that's what I got on a 109 game sample. I can't believe FSU is that improved to warrant a line this close. Stoops' brother being FSU's new DC is not gonna do it. Oklahoma's piss poor showing Saturday a reason for the low line possibly.
Oklahoma is 6-0 as a home fave of 15 or less the last 4 years. Average margin of victory is 28.66 pts.
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Adding: Oklahoma (-8.5) 5%
I don't have a good write up for this one other than my math models. Going off of lastyear's data at the end of the regular season I would've had a line of Oklahoma(-22.61). Seems crazy but that's what I got on a 109 game sample. I can't believe FSU is that improved to warrant a line this close. Stoops' brother being FSU's new DC is not gonna do it. Oklahoma's piss poor showing Saturday a reason for the low line possibly.
Oklahoma is 6-0 as a home fave of 15 or less the last 4 years. Average margin of victory is 28.66 pts.
I am a big fan of Tennessee this week as well. I think the O-line outweight Oregon's D Line by about an average of 50lbs and that should be good for about 5 yards per carry like you said. Shortens the game and should keep them within the number at home.
Also, I like Wake alot. Good Luck to You!!!!!!!!!!!!
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Kap,
I am a big fan of Tennessee this week as well. I think the O-line outweight Oregon's D Line by about an average of 50lbs and that should be good for about 5 yards per carry like you said. Shortens the game and should keep them within the number at home.
Also, I like Wake alot. Good Luck to You!!!!!!!!!!!!
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