FSU vs Georgie Tech (w/ writeup)

Of the opinion FSU cannot be trusted honestly wouldn't be surprised if they found a way to lose this game. Does the D have the discipline to play assignment football? Also this team sucks on the road str8 sucks. FSU 0-5 ATS on the road this year.

I've been following along on Covers as a reader for about 10 years and finally joined yesterday to be able to post/respond to other posts.  I felt obligated to do it after seeing a post by someone yesterday claiming that some NCAA and NFL games are fixed and did my best to explain why that argument is about as weak an argument as you can possibly make as an experienced gambler, not to mention as a thinking person.....but  digress.  Onto FSU / GT........ 

Both teams coming off very humbling (if not embarrassing) performances last week to tough rivals.  Despite that fact, its fair to expect that both teams, given the stakes in this game and there is no "look ahead" factor to consider, should be ready to play emotionally.  

FSU is the #1 defense in football, despite the letdown they had to FLA last week.  The loss of their stud DE Carradine in the FLA game last week, though a hit to their defense, is mitigated in my opinion by their overall strength, speed and aggressiveness as a TEAM on defense.  Their front 4 (or 7) are relentless and they have a stable full of DT/DEs, etc that they normally rotate in and out to keep fresh throughout the game and they do it as well as anyone in football.  Georgia Tech is ranked 3rd in the nation in rushing with their spread offense, but almost dead last in passing.  If they don't rush for 3,4, and 5 yeards on first down against FSU, like they've been used to doing all season against lesser opponents like Duke, NC and Maryland, they'll find themselves in 3rd and long enough times in this game and that is a receipe for disaster against FSU (against anybody obviously, but particularly against a defensive squat like FSU). 

My only two concerns with backing FSU (but they're small concerns, honestly) are the following and I’d like to know what people here think :

1)      Def Coordinator, Mark Stoops, just accepted the head coaching position at Kentucky (Tues?) and am wondering what impact, if any, people think that has on his preparation for this week’s game against FSU.  Don’t know the guy at all so not sure if he’s basically a lame duck or actually gives a garbage and will man up for this last reg season game?  Comments welcomed.

2)      For some strange reason, I heard spread offense with a very strong running game for Georgia Tech and I couldn’t help thinking of Baylor a couple weeks ago completely embarrassing the then #1 Kansas St as almost 20 point underdogs (I remember it well as I got spanked backing K St in teasers, etc).  Kansas st was supposed to have had a decent Defense but they looked like a high school squad on the road against unranked Baylor.  Now you have a super strong defense (FSU) kind of heavily favored against yet another spread/option great running team (G Tech) and I’m a bit gun shy even though all things considered I think FSU is the better team.  Two things that are different in the FSU v GT game as compared to the K ST/Baylor fiasco is that this is on a neutral field and said field is grass (bit slower) than the track they were playing on at Baylor.  The latter might not  mean much to some folks but in my mind it means that a superfast spread offense that knows where they are going (sweeps/flips/options) is slowed down just enough and an athletic defense has more time to react/pursue.  Thoughts? 

The other thing that I see going the way of FSU is that the normal kick holder (Moore) is Doubtful, Tech's place kicker is 3 for 7 in FGs ALL YEAR without a made FG over 39 yrds (not good against a terribly stingy FSU D particularly in the Red Zone), and it was reported that GT's stud tailback Orwin Smith (averaging 9yds/carry) who sat out last week against Georgia still had not practiced yesterday, despite telling reporters he thought he would be ready to go this Sat. 

Strong write-up  - I'm not seeing how GT hangs w/this team, either. Though I love those Teasers and I'm sure I'd buy it down cause I just hate laying double-digits. Good insights, though.

Sorry, quoting got screwed up: here's an easier format to read.

Strong write-up - I'm not seeing how GT hangs w/this team, either. Though I love those Teasers and I'm sure I'd buy it down cause I just hate laying double-digits. Good insights, though.

Not so fast......  Has anyone seen how easy it is to score on GT? I can see the Noles hangin 50 on the Jackets....   

Observation: Good defenses have shut GT offense down, Georgia held them to 10, only 3 on first team D, and a garbage td against 3rd team.....   BYU similar holding them to 17, again one garbage td. Both teams won by average of 30+. It's also worth noting that against those D's the totals were 52 and 58. That number is short of todays total. So the question becomes; Does FSU have a good defense or not? If you think FSU D is up to it, you gotta lay the chalk, if not, you gotta play the over. The argument for the over and not taking the points is: FSU COULD blow GT out, you would lose with the points.... BUT you would cash the over. The OVER is the better play IMHO in that case.

If GT does not get a lead early, they won't be able to stay within 28 (twice the line here). Look at how their games unfolded this year. GT just can not play from behind and everything they try just buries them deeper.... AND If GT does get up a little early, AT LEAST I BE CASHING THE OVER.

Like a lot of us in this forum, FSU has cost me money more than once. They have been terrible ATS. And they are almost as unbettable as PITT. 

GT has had a terrible season versus their expectations. I think Noles get up early and GT folds it tent.......also, GT will have no HFA effect, their fans are the weakest fans ever..... I am comfortable laying the chalk: But LOVE OVER MORE

FSU -14  Unit

OVER 60  Units

I know a lot of good cappers will not play teasers, but this might be a sweet spot for one.... tease the side down to -8 and total down to 55.  Don't bash me if you hate teasers, I have been betting for 30 years.

Forgot to add that

 Units FSU -8 OVER 54

Had to pay OVER 55, so adjust my post