FSU vs Georgie Tech (w/ writeup)

I've been following along on Covers as a reader for about 10 years and finally joined yesterday to be able to post/respond to other posts.  I felt obligated to do it after seeing a post by someone yesterday claiming that some NCAA and NFL games are fixed and did my best to explain why that argument is about as weak an argument as you can possibly make as an experienced gambler, not to mention as a thinking person.....but  digress.  Onto FSU / GT........ 

Both teams coming off very humbling (if not embarrassing) performances last week to tough rivals.  Despite that fact, its fair to expect that both teams, given the stakes in this game and there is no "look ahead" factor to consider, should be ready to play emotionally.  

FSU is the #1 defense in football, despite the letdown they had to FLA last week.  The loss of their stud DE Carradine in the FLA game last week, though a hit to their defense, is mitigated in my opinion by their overall strength, speed and aggressiveness as a TEAM on defense.  Their front 4 (or 7) are relentless and they have a stable full of DT/DEs, etc that they normally rotate in and out to keep fresh throughout the game and they do it as well as anyone in football.  Georgia Tech is ranked 3rd in the nation in rushing with their spread offense, but almost dead last in passing.  If they don't rush for 3,4, and 5 yeards on first down against FSU, like they've been used to doing all season against lesser opponents like Duke, NC and Maryland, they'll find themselves in 3rd and long enough times in this game and that is a receipe for disaster against FSU (against anybody obviously, but particularly against a defensive squat like FSU). 

My only two concerns with backing FSU (but they're small concerns, honestly) are the following and I’d like to know what people here think :

1)      Def Coordinator, Mark Stoops, just accepted the head coaching position at Kentucky (Tues?) and am wondering what impact, if any, people think that has on his preparation for this week’s game against FSU.  Don’t know the guy at all so not sure if he’s basically a lame duck or actually gives a shit and will man up for this last reg season game?  Comments welcomed.

2)      For some strange reason, I heard spread offense with a very strong running game for Georgia Tech and I couldn’t help thinking of Baylor a couple weeks ago completely embarrassing the then #1 Kansas St as almost 20 point underdogs (I remember it well as I got spanked backing K St in teasers, etc).  Kansas st was supposed to have had a decent Defense but they looked like a high school squad on the road against unranked Baylor.  Now you have a super strong defense (FSU) kind of heavily favored against yet another spread/option great running team (G Tech) and I’m a bit gun shy even though all things considered I think FSU is the better team.  Two things that are different in the FSU v GT game as compared to the K ST/Baylor fiasco is that this is on a neutral field and said field is grass (bit slower) than the track they were playing on at Baylor.  The latter might not  mean much to some folks but in my mind it means that a superfast spread offense that knows where they are going (sweeps/flips/options) is slowed down just enough and an athletic defense has more time to react/pursue.  Thoughts? 

The other thing that I see going the way of FSU is that the normal kick holder (Moore) is Doubtful, Tech's place kicker is 3 for 7 in FGs ALL YEAR without a made FG over 39 yrds (not good against a terribly stingy FSU D particularly in the Red Zone), and it was reported that GT's stud tailback Orwin Smith (averaging 9yds/carry) who sat out last week against Georgia still had not practiced yesterday, despite telling reporters he thought he would be ready to go this Sat. 

Line is FSU -14 ½.  I do like them to cover that but honestly I really like them in teasers (I know that's against some people's religion but ....) just in case FSU has its hands full with stopping this spread offense more than I expect.

FSU -14.5

FSU - 4.5 / Denver Broncos +3 / SF 49s UNDER 50.5

FSU -4.5 / Cincy Bengals +7 / SF 49s UNDER 50.5

I know its a college forum but I added in those plays on Sunday that I like in teasers with the Noles here.  GLTA!

Potvin - Thanks.  I think FSU's revolving door of fresh DT/DEs will wear down whatever running game GT has to offer.  Field position will become key.

Adding a very telling quote from a guy who knows Georgie Tech better than anyone - their head coach.....

"I think we were able to outscore people, honestly, if you want to know the truth," Johnson said. "The last four games we got far enough out in front of people and scored enough points to secure the games."

....don't see them getting that far out in front of FSU.  In fact I don't see it happening even once...jsut an opinion.

Way too much FSU love in this thread.  I wouldn't put their defense in the Top 5, much less #1.  They've padded their stats vs weak teams. Against better competition they've looked anything but dominant.  They gave 37 pts at home to Clemson and also 37 pts at home vs a UF team with a mediocre offense.  How motivated will FSU be after getting crushed at home by UF.  GT got whipped last week too, but they were 2 TD road dogs and nobody expected them to win so it shouldn't be as deflating as FSU's loss.

How focused will Stoops be?  Has he ever faced the option?  He wasn't at FSU the last 2 times these teams played...both games won by GT (31-28 in '08 and 49-44 in '09 @ FSU).  GT ran for over 400 yds in the '09 game.  I've been watching this GT offense the last 5 yrs and if a team has never faced it they typically look clueless...especially fast athletic teams like FSU.  These kind of teams are full of 4 & 5 star guys trying to make kill shots to get on SportsCenter.  They have a hard time playing disciplined assignment football.  It's boring & frustrating to them.  They get tired of getting cut block over & over.  They also tend to over-pursue.  It just takes 1 guy not playing his assignment for this offense to score.  Some of GT's best rushing performances under Johnson have been vs talented teams like FSU, Miami, UGA, UNC, etc.   One thing to remember, all of the teams in GT's division (plus Clemson) spend time in the Spring & Summer getting ready for the option.  Since GT and FSU didn't play in the regular season I would assume FSU didn't spend any extra prep time getting ready for it.  So they've only had this one week to prepare. 

I expect this weekends game to be a similar high scoring game as the previous two.  I'm on GT +14 but also think Over 61 is solid.  GT's defense is pathetic and FSU should score everytime they have the ball provided EJ doesn't make any of his bone-headed throws.