All Forums | College Football

Freak Pics!!! (Week 10)

...
Participants:
Search model icon
Views: 103388
Posts: 346
 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Aug, 2006
Posts: 793
Posted: #151
Freak,

Are you aware that LSU has apparently solved some offensive line problems they suffered with earlier this year?
 
All-Star
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2003
Posts: 13951
Posted: #152
Quote Originally Posted by sportskingpin:

Jimmy nice picks, I was wondering if possible for both the Navy game and Bama game out of the three recommended picks which one would you take if you only wanted to take one. 

Appreciate your help and BOL. 


I think the team total bets for Navy and LSU are the best of the three bets I've posted for each game.  The problem with team total bets are that books set very low max wager amounts, and generally don't let you parlay them. So, if team total bets don't work for you, then my second favorite bets would be OVER 51 in the Navy game, and laying the points with Alabama.

Hint:  Except for team total bets, I always post my bets in order I like them for each time slot.  So my top game is my favorite.  The second game listed is my second favorite and so on.  I usually list the team total bets below the primary bet because it is considered a prop bet.


 
All-Star
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2003
Posts: 13951
Posted: #153
Quote Originally Posted by sportskingpin:

Also what you think about the K-State and Oklahoma State game. I'm liking over 37.5 for Kansas State. 


I will defer to the K-State expert on that one.  ksuwins loves KSU so who am I to argue???  I won't bet the game because of my heavy exposure in the Alabama/LSU game, but if I did I would lay the points with KSU.  I honestly think KSU is too physical for Okie Lite.


 
All-Star
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2003
Posts: 13951
Posted: #154
Quote Originally Posted by ac_bum:

 PLS give me your thoughts on ECU/HOUS FG TOTAL


I love the over in that game.  I almost played it but I shied away from it when the total went up to 69.  Even at 69 I still like it a lot.


 
All-Star
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2003
Posts: 13951
Posted: #155
Quote Originally Posted by phancard:

Love your BAMA and UNDER plays Freak. I am following you on all. BOL this week . 


. . . well good luck to us then!!! 


 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2004
Posts: 4081
Posted: #156
Quote Originally Posted by jimmydafreak:




Yeah, would have liked to catch Indiana at -1 but I honestly don't think it'll make a difference.  I can't see Iowa's offense keeping pace with the Hoosiers.  This is a track meet and Iowa is running with a wooden leg.

HILARIOUS!!!!

I stayed away from the 1st half under in the Alabama/LSU game as I usually do because Alabama's scoring is usually 1st half heavy.  If Alabama gets a sizable lead in the 1st half, the second half will pretty much always go under.

Duly noted...if 1st half Under busts for me...and things look right...I'll make it up on a 2nd hlf Under.

I have been missing out HUGE on KSU all season.    When it comes to your Wildcats I have the stomach disease called "NO GUTS."    I have played them twice this season - "Best Bet" against Kansas as I do every year, and faded them when they played Iowa State.  Man I would love to see them play Bama in the national championship game.  That would be awesome!!!  Bill Snyder vs. Nick Saban!!!  

Man, I'd shit my pants if that happens.  I'm mortified that if KSU is lucky enough to run the table, they'll get jobbed, as usual. The best two coaches going right now, if you ask me.


I've been raking on SEC and Big 10 1st half unders...padded my account quite well on these. Never comfortable with these plays in the past, but but have gotten more confident following your threads and grabbing my own plays.  Might be pushing my luck tomorrow, but we'll see.
 
Hall of Fame
Participation Meter
Joined: Jun, 2011
Posts: 22968
Posted: #157
Quote Originally Posted by jimmydafreak:



I love the over in that game.  I almost played it but I shied away from it when the total went up to 69.  Even at 69 I still like it a lot.


SO WOULD 1 TT BE AN OPTION OR A 1ST 1/2 PLAY

I THINK THEY GET OUT THE GATE EARLY
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2004
Posts: 4081
Posted: #158
By the way, the next three weeks could get dicey with the KSU line (though I'll probably continue to ride the wave)...I think tomorrow might be the last of the "freebies".  Snyder has not beaten OSU since his return, and the taste of the last season's OT loss is still fresh on the team's mind.

From there on out...might not be any angles to jump on.
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2010
Posts: 476
Posted: #159
Thanks Jimmy, I hope you crush it 2m. 
 
All-Star
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2009
Posts: 12718
Posted: #160
BOL tomorrow JDF
 
All-Star
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2003
Posts: 13951
Posted: #161
Quote Originally Posted by damonte:

Freak,

Are you aware that LSU has apparently solved some offensive line problems they suffered with earlier this year?


Due to lack of time, I was unable to finish and post my writeup on this game.  Let me just say it this way.  Smash-mouth type of offenses are perfect match-ups for Alabama's defense.  Every single time I have "Max Bet" Alabama in the last couple of years is when they were matched-up against smash-mouth style offenses - Penn State, Michigan State, Michigan, etc.  I will say the same thing I did before the national championship game.  The only shot LSU has of finding the end zone in this game is via a non-offensive touchdown, or because of some defensive breakdown.  LSU has nothing on the offensive side of the ball that will scare or surprise Alabama.

This match-up is even a worse one for LSU this time around because they now have a statue for a quarterback.  This makes things much, much easier on Alabama's defense.  They will simply unleash the hounds in an effort to sack or move Mettenberger off of his square.  LSU's offense versus Alabama's defense is a huge mismatch in favor of Alabama.  By the second half who will cover the spread will not be in doubt.

Predicted score:  Alabama 27 LSU 0


 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2011
Posts: 551
Posted: #162
BOL tomorrow 

I see you're still fading Auburn.  Watching them struggle this year has been very enjoyable for me, though I must admit I am starting to feel sorry for some of my close Auburn buddies.

I hope you crush the Books this week bro!
 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2012
Posts: 997
Posted: #163

I'm on the over in the Navy Fl-Atl as well as all three of your Bama/LSU plays.

LOVE the fact I get under 10 points in chalk on Bama based on the fact this game is in the Batan Rouge. Anyone who's watched the Tigers lately know that their defence is not the same defence from the past couple years. Most notably on their defensive line and in their secondary; Drake Nevis and Michael Brockers created an interior rush that hasn't been the same since their departure to the NFL and talented players such as Caliborn, Peterson, and Mathieu are not easily replaced.

Biggest edge by far is in the QB department. McCarens has been damn near perfect all season long whereas Metenberrger has been sub par at best. Jefferson at least added the element of a running threat to the LSU's offence, whereas Metterberger has yet to make many big plays with his arm or legs this season. WR Ruben Randle's early departure to the NFL is as evident as its ever been with the Tigers ranking 85th in passing offence this season. Bama's secondary is as stout as ever - Robert Lester Jr is a stud, and Milliner is quickly emerging as one of the games best young prospects at defensive back. Unless LSU can throw the ball downfield, its really hard to see them having a shot in this game. Bama is throwing the ball as well as they ever have - freshman Amari Cooper is a talented young player who has made an immediate impact on the offence.

I think it will take an absoloutely near perfect game for LSU to cover in this one, and I just don't see them keeping up any way I look at it.

 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2012
Posts: 770
Posted: #164
noway, if LSU gets shutout i will quit gambling 4ever.. i have better odds hitten the mega millions, then seeing LSU getting shutout again... No chance, no how, no way cmon jimmy u know this is wrong... u put this out and people are going to follow this please do the right thing jimmy... u are a great capper that many follow this is just wrong... Why do this to the people?
 
All-Star
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2003
Posts: 13951
Posted: #165
Quote Originally Posted by ksuwins:


I've been raking on SEC and Big 10 1st half unders...padded my account quite well on these. Never comfortable with these plays in the past, but but have gotten more confident following your threads and grabbing my own plays.  Might be pushing my luck tomorrow, but we'll see.


Exactly!!!  If Alabama takes the total over in the 1st half, pound the 2nd half under.  I'd probably do it regardless of the outcome of your first half bet.

I think if KSU wins out, I think they have a great shot getting to the show.  The computers love them.

I have been raking in on 1st half unders all season.  I haven't missed many.  I was shocked how MTSU went right through WKU's defense last night.  I thought WKU would at least slow them down a bit.  I thought that under was a great bet.  Didn't turn out that way!!! 

I think I have half of covers betting 1st half unders.


 
All-Star
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2003
Posts: 13951
Posted: #166
Quote Originally Posted by ac_bum:

SO WOULD 1 TT BE AN OPTION OR A 1ST 1/2 PLAY

I THINK THEY GET OUT THE GATE EARLY


I really didn't take a close look at the team totals.

I have posted many times that I'm not a fan of betting 1st half overs.  I like betting unders in the 1st half and overs for the game, so if I were betting the game, I would play it over 69 for the game.  If you have reasons you need to bet the 1st half, or if you need the bet to clear before the end of the game, then take a shot on the 1st half over if you can get it under 35.  35 or more in the 1st half is very dicey bet IMO.


 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Nov, 2005
Posts: 3704
Posted: #167
What do you think about these games Freak, I also have 
Kansas St -9 (surprise team this year)
Oregon -8 (don't like USC and their dumb coach)
Texas St 26.5
Hope we crush the books tomorrow Bud..

 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Apr, 2012
Posts: 434
Posted: #168
Hey Jimmy would you still Max Bet Bama at -9?
 
All-Star
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2003
Posts: 13951
Posted: #169
Quote Originally Posted by SqueaksUofA:

BOL tomorrow 

I see you're still fading Auburn.  Watching them struggle this year has been very enjoyable for me, though I must admit I am starting to feel sorry for some of my close Auburn buddies.

I hope you crush the Books this week bro!


I honestly feel sorry for Auburn too.  I have a friend who is actually taking his son to the game.  Someone gave him the tickets.

I said before the season began that I would be fading Auburn all season.  They are the gift that just keeps on giving.  I have to admit QB Jonathan Wallace concerns me a little.  He's actually competent, and they are playing NMSU afterall.  I still think the Aggies can score enough to keep this within the number.


 
MVP
Participation Meter
Joined: Jun, 2006
Posts: 18880
Posted: #170
i love bama at up to-9.5 and navy & over is $weet.gd lk.
bigFnPOO
 
All-Star
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2003
Posts: 13951
Posted: #171
Quote Originally Posted by JohnnyLonghorn:

I'm on the over in the Navy Fl-Atl as well as all three of your Bama/LSU plays.

LOVE the fact I get under 10 points in chalk on Bama based on the fact this game is in the Batan Rouge. Anyone who's watched the Tigers lately know that their defence is not the same defence from the past couple years. Most notably on their defensive line and in their secondary; Drake Nevis and Michael Brockers created an interior rush that hasn't been the same since their departure to the NFL and talented players such as Caliborn, Peterson, and Mathieu are not easily replaced.

Biggest edge by far is in the QB department. McCarens has been damn near perfect all season long whereas Metenberrger has been sub par at best. Jefferson at least added the element of a running threat to the LSU's offence, whereas Metterberger has yet to make many big plays with his arm or legs this season. WR Ruben Randle's early departure to the NFL is as evident as its ever been with the Tigers ranking 85th in passing offence this season. Bama's secondary is as stout as ever - Robert Lester Jr is a stud, and Milliner is quickly emerging as one of the games best young prospects at defensive back. Unless LSU can throw the ball downfield, its really hard to see them having a shot in this game. Bama is throwing the ball as well as they ever have - freshman Amari Cooper is a talented young player who has made an immediate impact on the offence.

I think it will take an absoloutely near perfect game for LSU to cover in this one, and I just don't see them keeping up any way I look at it.



Don't be fooled.  LSU's defense is outstanding.  They have the best defensive line in the nation, and their linebackers are an improvement over last season.  Of course they'll be going against the best offensive line in the country so that's a great match-up to watch out for.

Their biggest loss in the secondary is NOT the Honey Badger, it is Morris Claiborne.  That guy was an absoulte beast.  His interception is what won the game for them at Bryant-Denny Stadium last season.  So I agree that their secondary is not nearly as strong as it was last season.  I like the match-up between LSU's secondary and Alabama's wide receivers.

Yes Amari Cooper is the real deal.  I watched him in the spring and fall, and even then I thought he was the best receiver on the field.  He knows how to get open.  Him and another true freshman named Chris Black.  Black went out for the season when he injured his shoulder after getting trucked by CJ Mosley.




 
All-Star
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2003
Posts: 13951
Posted: #172
Quote Originally Posted by originator:

noway, if LSU gets shutout i will quit gambling 4ever.. i have better odds hitten the mega millions, then seeing LSU getting shutout again... No chance, no how, no way cmon jimmy u know this is wrong... u put this out and people are going to follow this please do the right thing jimmy... u are a great capper that many follow this is just wrong... Why do this to the people?


I'm not saying it is impossible for LSU to score.  If they score I enumerated the ways I think that could happen.  What I don't think will happen is LSU's offense consistently being able to drive the field and score.

What I'm saying about this game is exactly what I said before the national championship.  A lot of people didn't believe it when I posted it then either.  The fact of the matter is LSU's offense is much easier for Alabama to defend this time around because of the quarterback situation.  That simplifies things considerably for Alabama's defense.  Mettenberger has a fantastic arm, so it is not inconceivable that he'll make a play or two, but that won't be anywhere near enough to win or cover this game.  To win or cover the game he will have to be able to "consistently" make plays, and that simply is not going to happen IMO.

Yes, LSU may very well score, but if they do it won't be close to what they'll need to win, cover, or eclipse the team total.  The bottom line is all three of the bets I posted on this game will win, so I don't anticipate having many disgruntled followers.

Best of luck to you tomorrow my friend!!!




 
All-Star
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2003
Posts: 13951
Posted: #173
Quote Originally Posted by phancard:

What do you think about these games Freak, I also have 
Kansas St -9 (surprise team this year)
Oregon -8 (don't like USC and their dumb coach)
Texas St 26.5
Hope we crush the books tomorrow Bud..



I like K-State & Oregon.  If I weren't so heavily invested in the Alabama game I would probably be on those two games.

I really like the over in the Texas State/Utah State game.  52 seems like a gift to me.  I came within a whisker of betting it.


 
All-Star
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2003
Posts: 13951
Posted: #174
Quote Originally Posted by breakeven001:

Hey Jimmy would you still Max Bet Bama at -9?


Absolutely!!!  Anything under 10.


 
 
All-Star
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2010
Posts: 12241
Posted: #175
You know Alabama far better than I do but I just don't see the value in laying more than a td on the road at night to a well rested tigers team. I don't know how LSU is going to score offensively but Miles is 36-1 on saturday night games at home. I do like the LSU team total under 16 however.
All Forums | College Football
About Us
Contact Us
Careers
Our Team
Brand
Testimonials
Betting Guides
Sportsbook Reviews
Betting News
Podcasts
Responsible Gambling
Betting Sites
US Betting Sites
Canada Betting Sites
Canada Casinos
Best Betting Apps
Contests
Streak Survivor
King of Covers
Ultimate Race
Office Pools
The Covers community has
810,221
lifetime members worldwide
Covers 30 Years Logo Established in 1995,
Covers is the world
leader in sports
betting information.
21+
Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER
Help Privacy Terms of Service Cookies Sitemap Forum
Covers is verified safe by:
Evalon Logo Logo GPWA Logo GDPR logo Logo GeoTrust logo Logo PCI DSS logo Logo
Copyright © 1995 - 2026 CS Media Ltd. All Rights Reserved.
If you choose to make use of any information on this website including online sports betting services from any websites that may be featured on this website, we strongly recommend that you carefully check your local laws before doing so.It is your sole responsibility to understand your local laws and observe them strictly.Covers does not provide any advice or guidance as to the legality of online sports betting or other online gambling activities within your jurisdiction and you are responsible for complying with laws that are applicable to you in your relevant locality.Covers disclaims all liability associated with your use of this website and use of any information contained on it.As a condition of using this website, you agree to hold the owner of this website harmless from any claims arising from your use of any services on any third party website that may be featured by Covers.