FCS/Incarnate Word info for anyone that cares

Pretty irritating not being able to find notes since it's FCS, so I thought I'd post what I know and have followed this season as I am in San Antonio (IW's hometown). 

The skinny:  IW is 7-3 ATS.  Their QB is about to break the Passing TD record in FCS. 

-IW hasn't been a dog since WK1 & 2, when they posted two of their largest covers.  From then, they've been the right favorite and gone 5-3 ATS (two additional wins, where no line was reported).

-IW has covered their spreads with an additional MARGIN of +101 total points. (AVG of +10.1 pts/game, with two games not counted)  To be very fair, most of the lines weren't out until SAT morning (FCS) and they swung as much as 9pts that I can remember.

-Despite the 'lack of schedule' they still closed the reg season on a +30.5pt cover

The QB:

-Lindsey Scott Jr transferred from Nicholls St two years ago.  He's said that in that program, he was forced to be a stationary robot.  Since arriving at IW and getting to play his style, his numbers have increased year-over-year and he's having a record-setting year.

-Entering this season, Scott's top competition for best QB was Fordham's Tim DeMorat.  The two have posted the highest yardage and TD count:

DeMorat - 4891 passing yards, most in all NCAA.  (Penix, WASH, leads FBS with 4354)

             - 56 passing TD, also most in all NCAA.  (3-way tie in FBS @ 37 TD)

             - 10 INTs

Scott Jr  - 4156 passing yards

             - 55 passing TD

             - 6 INTs 

-DeMorat, though, and his Fordham squad were knocked out of the 1st round of the FCS playoffs already.

-Scott is pretty much poised to re-take (see below) the lead and BREAK THE RECORD of 57 passing TD's (2016).

-Scott has been rested for the majority of all 2H's.  On avg, he doesn't play the 4Q, and in blowout games like 70-0 vs Faulkner he was benched by Halftime!  (DeMorat still played fulltime).

-I believe it was during the Faulkner game, when up 56-0 at half, that Scott had tied the TD lead.  But after being benched, and Fordham playing a night game, DeMorat took the lead over again.

-Scott has TWICE had 7-TD games, by halftime, which puts him in a 3-way tie for most TDs in a Half ever.

-Scott's current Pass Efficiency rating is already higher than the current record for such stat!

-Despite the lowered respect for FCS programs, and even though it's a 'down' year in FBS, just last year the leader of all NCAA was the fan favorite Zappe (62 passing TD, with some guy named Burrow at 60).  Scott CAN reach those levels...

Fun Fact:  IW's Coach does a weekly segment with a local sport station.  On a few occasions, the radio host has (lightly) begged Coach to "let the team put up 100 on somebody".  Each time, Coach gently laughs it off or changes the subject.

Sorry for the ranting, I'm obviously not a journalism or English major.  Just a degen that pays it forward when possible.  

Just some game notes.  Might shine light on any games you're looking at, or comparing lines to.  I watched all but 2 games.

-WK 3, first game as a favorite.  Missed covering 19 by just 2 pts when the backup QB comes in and throws an INT.  With half the 4Q still to play, both sides traded fumbles and just ran motions to finish the clock.

-WK 4, their only loss.  Game was pretty late and mostly blow-for-blow.  IW literally ties it with seconds left to play.  After the kick, both teams are just slugging around and the commentator is like usual "well, it's gonna take OT to solve this one..." 

BUT INSTEAD, SE Louisiana throw this almost fake pass to a guy hanging out by the sideline who shakes the only guy trying to catch him, and they "walk it off".  Hence the report showing TD 0:00 (No excuse by IW to assume OT, but it was crazy AF)

-Vs. Nicholls State:  significant game because it was a homecoming game for the travelling Scott, who returned to his 1st program.  Nicholls defense also features Scott's little brother, so wasn't expecting a beat down.  IW still covered against a just lousy NS team, but the under was WAY UNDER.  By this point in the season, IW games were hitting 70's O/U and there was no chance they would run it up with these circumstances.

-Vs. Faulkner, as previously mentioned, IW is up 56-0 at half.  One of the games Scott doesn't play a snap in the entire 2H.

All this being said, I'm taking IW (ML and points).  Saw some YT predictor say that despite both being FCS, it's night and day competition.  Incarnate Word has been lucky, but until now.  But then he goes on to say that SAC's "statement" game was the 41-10 win over Colorado State in WK3.  (the same CSU team that only won 3 games, and is a stinking mess).

Last two stats I just found:

IW is #1 in the FCS for passing yards, SAC is #4

IW is #1 in the FCS for passing efficiency, SAC is #27.

BOL anyone playing this game, which ever way you go.

Convinced me.  Thanks for the info

First, thank you for posting all that information.

I'm getting I think, that betting the over which stands at 78 is a real risk.  The coach calls the dogs off by 2nd half.  Am I reading that correct DITY?  Are you getting 6 points along with the ML @ 200?

THANKS again

Hey Cooler,

I haven't followed the total as close as I have been the spread, which I show at +6.5 and +205 right now.  I was able to get them at +7.5 and +215 (at World Cup kickoff).

Sac State has bested 50pts on week 1 and then in the middle of the season, then played much tighter.  While IW has hit 70 just last month, followed by a 66pt game... using backups.

I wouldn't worry about the coach calling anything off, it's a Playoff game with the right to move on (I think two more games before Championship) & with the FCS awards next month, still more room for Scott to make cases for himself.  I just think IW is the value getting any points.   *Check the weather though:  I see that it's rained today, and there's still chances throughout the evening for more*

@DUDE-I-TOLD-YOU

 Your write-up.  It doesn't get better than that.

Thanks for the write up friend, I did some digging and took the points. IW certainly looks like the better team through one half, hopefully they finish strong 

@cdog8043

 Thank You kindly.  

@nattyorange

 Heck yeah!  Let's finish strong.  1H ML already paid +165

For anyone watching, Scott has TIED the record.  Pretty obvious Sac knows about it, and to be fair they are doing a good job on the long ball.

I think IW is getting to roll now after the two quick punts.  They are still giving up a bad play on most sets of downs, but they also seem to be putting men down on the defense at the same time.  (Sac QB left the game just before halftime).  Scott looks extremely determined on his feet too! 

 66-63

220yds, 4 TDs, 0 INT

thanks for the time guys, hope some of y'all were able to make some easy units

@DUDE-I-TOLD-YOU

 Thank you.  IW.

The Dude - $$$$

You’re a special human being! Well done and thank you. 

Just throwing out a thank you for this pick. I grabbed them ML after reading this. Small, but every little bit counts.. Thanks Man!! 

Did anybody watch the game? Pretty entertaining.  TY for the write up.  

Nice write-up I would have done a 20% normal college football bet if I had the time to read it. Love fading West Coast teams vs any other part of the country. I bet Montana State 3 minutes before kick just based on seeing the weather and conditions. Bill and Mary looked like frozen pops. Nice job, congrats on your win