It's too complicated to easily explain, but basically it starts with a program that projects outcomes based on statistical matchups crossed against public play percentage vs line movement. The weight of those three factors (plus some personal opinion/capping) determines the unit size.
At this point in the season, statistical trends are going into account on determining plays. For example I'm not gonna play a team who is 0-7 ATS even if it's shows up as a play. UVA last week is an example of a play (that ultimately won) but I had to pass on because it was too hard to justify betting a team that bad.
For example on the game tonight the projected outcome is 0. Meaning the game may as well be a coin flip. If the line had moved with Ohio then the play would have been Bowling Green +3.5, it moved towards BG so the play is BG ML.
The Under play is basically because every game BG has played this year has gone Under so I'm just riding the trend. But since I've BG at +110, I've got a perfect hedge. So if I go 1-1 tonight I'll still break even cause I got past the juice.
At the end of the day it picks winners.
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It's too complicated to easily explain, but basically it starts with a program that projects outcomes based on statistical matchups crossed against public play percentage vs line movement. The weight of those three factors (plus some personal opinion/capping) determines the unit size.
At this point in the season, statistical trends are going into account on determining plays. For example I'm not gonna play a team who is 0-7 ATS even if it's shows up as a play. UVA last week is an example of a play (that ultimately won) but I had to pass on because it was too hard to justify betting a team that bad.
For example on the game tonight the projected outcome is 0. Meaning the game may as well be a coin flip. If the line had moved with Ohio then the play would have been Bowling Green +3.5, it moved towards BG so the play is BG ML.
The Under play is basically because every game BG has played this year has gone Under so I'm just riding the trend. But since I've BG at +110, I've got a perfect hedge. So if I go 1-1 tonight I'll still break even cause I got past the juice.
There is something suspicious about this line on the FSU/VaTech game tonight. At -10, FSU is the play all the way. At -17, I probably would've said FSU (albeit for a smaller bet). But at -13 now with the line continuing to move against them? The line movement has me questioning the system projection.
This looks like FSU is not gonna cover. But I've watched FSU play so I'm not betting against them.
System Lean: Va Tech +13
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Quote Originally Posted by wtfe:
2u BG ML +110 2u BG/Ohio Under 48.5
2-0 +4.2u so far on the week.
There is something suspicious about this line on the FSU/VaTech game tonight. At -10, FSU is the play all the way. At -17, I probably would've said FSU (albeit for a smaller bet). But at -13 now with the line continuing to move against them? The line movement has me questioning the system projection.
This looks like FSU is not gonna cover. But I've watched FSU play so I'm not betting against them.
I messed up on that NM St. play. It shouldn't have been a play, I overlooked at SJS's road record, which happens to be 5-0 ATS. I saw it, but it didn't register for some reason. Oh well.
Here's the rest of the system plays:
5u Utah -1 4u La Tech -19 3u Tulane ML +105 3u Hawaii +28
System lean on TCU +6.5, but I'm not betting against a team that is 7-1 ATS.
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I messed up on that NM St. play. It shouldn't have been a play, I overlooked at SJS's road record, which happens to be 5-0 ATS. I saw it, but it didn't register for some reason. Oh well.
Here's the rest of the system plays:
5u Utah -1 4u La Tech -19 3u Tulane ML +105 3u Hawaii +28
System lean on TCU +6.5, but I'm not betting against a team that is 7-1 ATS.
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