Dr. Strangelove Week 13

Coming off a brutal week 12, where money goes to die. There really wasn't anything out of the ordinary. We identified 9 of 18 actual running dogs (same as last week), they just didn't hit this week (they only went 5-4 as opposed to 8-1 last week and all 4 losses they lost the turnover battle (11-2 overall) and the other 9 which had been hitting around 47% went 2-7. Shiit happens, but it still stings a little.

YTD: 83-49 (62.88%)

Week 5: 10-7
Week 6: 12-6
Week 7: 13-6
Week # 8: 12-6
Week # 9: 4-4
Week # 10: 12-4
Week # 11: 13-5

Week # 12: 7-11

Home Team: 1-5 (22-14 YTD)
Away Team: 6-6 (61-35 YTD)
With Better D: 4-7 (41-19 YTD)
With Better D at Home: 1-3 … (11-4 YTD)
7 points or more: 1-2 (DD were 0-1)….. 28-13 YTD (16-8 YTD)

Actual: 5-4 (55-12 YTD)

Pitt 197 to 154 (W)

Purdue 303 to 99 (L)**

Nebraska 195 to 156 (L)*^

UCLA 199 to 3 (W)

NC State 188 to 124 (W)

UCF 238 to 190 (W)

ODU 134 to 119 (W)

Oregon State 148 to 110 (L)*^^

Kentucky 122 to 50 (L)**^^

Not the ACTUAL RUNNING DOG:

YTD: 28-37 (43.08%)

Week # 5: 4-4
Week # 6: 3-5
Week # 7: 5-5
Week # 8: 2-5
Week # 9: 0-4
Week # 10: 7-3
Week # 11: 5-4

Week # 12: 2-7

Predicting the ACTUAL: 9-9 (67-65 … 50.76%)

** Purdue lost turnovers 4-1 and were stopped on down (SOD) twice in the red zone

*^ Went OT (lost turnovers 1-0)

*^^ Lost turnovers 3-1

**^^ Lost turnovers 3-0 including twice in plus territory (1 inside the red zone)

Note that I had a couple of running dogs (like UK) that I played early as a dog but didn't list here because they became a favorite before I posted them, and so disqualifying them from my list. But I still count them on my records because I played them. So it's just my loss and still counts on my overall record.

You are 6-1-1 in winning-weeks, so far. 

Running Dogs (PRD) for lucky Week 13: Just 8 this week. Nebraska would have been 9 running dogs for the week, but the line crossed zero overnight, so I can't post them. If it moves back to + I'll list them, even though the Corn seems to be snakebit when it comes to winning close games. No Trifecta Teams qualified this week. I paid a little more juice than I normally do. Mainly because we've had a couple line swings since Sunday night. Plus, being the last full slate of games for the season, I might as well spend a little money.

Eastern Michigan +7 (-117)

Air Force +6.5 (D)

Ball St. +7 (-120) (H)

Kentucky +7.5 (-118)

San Jose St +3 (D)

Arkansas St +2.5

Jax St +2.5 (slightly better YPG D)

San Diego St +6 (-121)

(D) Better Defense

(H) Home Team

Teams that I thought would qualify as running dogs but are instead the favorites:

Bowling Green -2 (D)

UCONN -2.5 (D)

East Carolina -3 (H)(D)

Old Dominion -3 (H)(D)

North Texas -3 (H)...better PPG D

These threads are awesome! So much good info. 

I had Ark St and Eastern Michigan in my Road Dog System. I’m done with the Mac except for Weather play’s because I lose to ridiculously crazy shit happening, but Eastern Michigan catching a TD with a total that low in bad weather sounds appealing. 

Air Force and Jax St are interesting plays too. I starting playing these recently. When an underdog has a better rating on Masseys but isn’t favored is 23-11 on the year and on a 15-2 run. Now that’s some dogs! Waiting to see if AF goes to 7.

Jax State might be a smash spot. NMS in the biggest sandwich game with Liberty on deck for the conference championship after maybe their biggest win ever vs Auburn. Jax denied bowl eligibility but if they weren’t denied, this game would determine who plays in the championship game. Jax rushed for close to 500 yards last week in their final home game in their victory. Normally I’d think this is a flat spot, but they had a bye the week prior. I think this is their Super Bowl. Love me some dogs….

Florida/FSU under 51

Jax St/NMST over 50.5

My bad Massey's data wasn't updated until today. Air Force wasn't on there as the better ranking. Eastern Michigan was though, and I am going to play it. Damn Mac Conference pulled me back in. 

Lets get them this week!! Best of luck

@MrFreedo

 I hate the Mac as well. Feels like watching a lower class high school game but I’m sticking to the system and watching tonight!

@gman21000

@phancard

Thanks fellas 

New Mexico +8.5 (-118)

New Mexico/Utah St. under 62 (-120)

If you like NM, I recommend getting them now. I have a pretty strong hunch this line is getting ready to change. I'm already seeing it start to move down.

Here is my list of Bad Offenses and Bad Defenses that are favored this week: Hopefully I can find one or two in here that are playable.

Offenses (<27 PPG favored by 7+):  5-5 last week

Ohio -13.5 (A)

NIU -17.5 (A)

Utah -21.5 (H)

WKU -9.5 (A)

Wyoming -10.5 (A)

UCLA -10.5 (H)

Defenses (>27 PPG favored by DD):  3-3 last week (luckily the one I bet was a winner …. Nevada)

Memphis -12.5 (A)....Bad defenses on the road giving DD has been a strong play against this season. 

UCF -13.5 (H)

LSU -11.5 (H)

ULL -12.5 (H)

Oklahoma State -17.5 (H)

Home team w/ Better D getting points: 1-4 last week (and of course it was Northwestern...ugh!)

Sam Houston +3.5 (H) …… close, I have them with the better PPG D, but not YPG

Rutgers +1.5

NC State +2.5

OU/TCU under 64.5

With the status of Dillon Gabriel up in the air, I think we're going to get a pretty heavy dose of Sawchuck. He's really starting to hit his stride at RB. Both teams a little vulnerable to the run, so that's where I see these each attacking the other. Even if Gabriel starts for OU, coming off concussion protocol I don't see Lebby drawing up a bunch of QB run plays. So probably a more limited playbook. Especially if Jackson Arnold starts. TCU pretty athletic on the back end, so the Sooners will most likely have to marticulate their way down the field on the Frogs, and hopefully use some clock. Weather will most likely be a factor with temps be in the low 40's with a 70% chance of rain.

GL this week STRANGE 

The first running dog of the week is in the books. Eastern Michigan outrushed Buffalo 226-163

@DrStrangelove

 I love this stressless kinda win. Lets hope the rest are like that. 

@phancard

 Stressless is good...That was the first time I've seen Buffalo play this season. I had no idea they were that bad. 

Nebraska ML (-135)

I'm not fooling around with this spread. It could very well end up a 7-6 game

Air Force seems like a good play. I know they’ve got a few players banged up, and haven’t looked good the last couple weeks, but if they win (and UNLV wins) they’re in the conference championship. Very possible, and catching a full touchdown now. Motivation is there. 

Haven’t looked fully into it, but Old Dominion looks good too. Possibly getting into a bowl game, at home, Georgia St recently a non-covering machine, and GS coming off a brutal beating from LSU (and 3 tough games in a row). 

Good luck this week!! 

@Zeus4par