Can you pick out T.Y. Hilton from a crowd? Perception is a scary thing...

Oh my god T.Y. Hilton is playing tonight!

You must see T.Y. Hilton play!

Oh my god T.Y. Hilton!

Who the fuck cares about T.Y. Hilton!?

Well, maybe I am getting ahead of myself. He is a phenomenal athlete and player, but good god, nobody truly knows who the hell this guy is. If I showed you a picture of T.Y. Hilton and a basketball player from say, Rutgers out of uniform, could you tell who was who? If I showed you a picture of Victor Cruz or a basketball player from Rutgers, could you tell who was who?

Odds are most people couldn’t even do BOTH of those, even though one is the most over hyped player in Division 1 football and the other is one of the most under hyped player in the NFL.

Now I am not trying to knock on everyone for not knowing athletes and their faces, but I am trying to point out how big a player can impact the betting public, especially on an isolated game.

Last night it was all about Ben Roethlisberger, tonight it is all about T.Y. Hilton.

Bowl season provides a number of isolated games that everyone has to have a bet on. This allows more and more people to simply bet on the names on the back of the jersey, not the team on the front.

Here is the meat of the write-up. The real consensus report, from all 12 betting shops that has CGS software and operates from our direction have a total of $9.32 bet on FIU for every $1 bet on Marshall. That is quite an extreme offset especially for a Tuesday bowl game, we have moved the line from -4 to -5 for FIU. Now a line movement of a point indicates an offset of slightly less than half of the present. So if this line were to accurately represent the money, it would be FIU -6.5.

However, here is the truth on the line. FIU is inflated by roughly a field goal. This has been the biggest bet bowl game of season so far, and the biggest bet game until AZU Boise. Almost all of this money is based on FIU playing close to home and you guessed it T.Y. Hilton.

Time to neutralize both of these factors. First the home town gimmick. FIU is playing 250 miles from campus, Marshall is 800 miles. Thankfully for both parties involved they have had 18 days to make the trip. Technically Marshall could have driven 44 miles an hour for one hour per day starting December 2^nd, and arrived in St. Petersburg at 9am today. FIU could of driven 9 miles per day. The point I am trying to make is bowl games do not have home field advantage! Well, VJ, its about the players and where they are from. Marshall recruits out of the Sunshine State and have more then half of their roster from Florida. Home field means nothing, end of story.

T.Y. Hilton. Great player, fun to watch. Game changer? Yes. Spread changer…for perception YES, for talent, not necessarily. If T.Y. Hilton was not playing, I would of opened this spread at FIU -3 and odds are it would still be there now. Since he is playing, I opened it at -3.5 and have moved it to -5. Hilton is worth half a point to a point, the perception he brings is worth two or three points, especially against a Marshall team that is able to neutralize the FIU passing game.

Here is why. Lets take a look at FIU LM from two weeks ago. FIU ran 56 offensive plays. Hilton was thrown to 7 times and had 4 catches. Hilton amassed for 12% of the FIU offense and 25% of the total points. In his best performance Hilton totaled 21% of the FIU offense and 35% of the total points. He is not the end all be all for this team. The point I am trying to say is that FIU has more players affecting the offense miles and miles more then T.Y. Hilton, and those players are not outstanding. I don’t understand how everyone gets so dialed in on the skill players that have impact levels averaging 10-20%.

Tonight is another example, Hilton will have the usual 10-20% impact level. On the other side of the ball are two phenomenal defensive ends, specifically Vinny Curry. 99 in Green demands a double team. He is going to take two linemen, a tight end or a running back out of every single play. Curry will be on the field for 100% of defensive plays. This means another player will have an open assignment. This means with the presence of Curry, there will be a free man to help assist in covering Hilton. It will be a constant gamble of match-ups between coaches.

Offensively, the Thundering Herd have an effective 1-2 punch at running back. Everyone is raving about the FIU defense as well. Did no one notice how suspect this defense can be? They have been slashed for 180 yards or more four times this season. Marshall can send out their choice of two 500 yard plus rushers who are a completely different mix of styles.

If you wanted to have value with FIU, you had to bet this weeks ago. There is no longer value with FIU and the stock price of Marshall will only go up and up as we get closer to kickoff.

An underdog is always live especially on a neutral field when they have a strong run game and a strong defense. It is not going to be about shutting down the FIU offense, it is going to be about slowing down the FIU offense. Once Marshall gets the tempo of the game into their hands and dictate the dictators, it could be a very scary thing for those holding tickets on the self proclaimed, “Best team in Florida” tonight.

Value with Marshall tonight. I bet on SF last night, I won't be betting on this game, but I just wanted to chime in because this is getting out of hand already.