BRIDGE PLAYS WEEK 2

Wolf and Mav get out of here with your grade school bickering, honestly how old are you?  We’re her to talk college football

@Illwildcats

 Sigh… I’ve been saying that forever… everyone needs to stop talking about it….

I get attacked I respond…. Simple… keep it football and keep it classy there will be no warfare… I did not start this… but I won’t let people get away with insults.. sorry not gonna happen

BRIDGE PLAY

FRESNO STATE +1

Coaching change was the big news in the off ssn but getting a familiar trusted HC in Jeff Tedford and new OC is not really new either, WR coach got moved up and a long time DC not changing the basic scheme w 4 down lineman.. Tedford guided this team to the MW championship back in 2018 back when DeBoer was the OC and the core of his team is back so it seems a pretty low risk transition and obvi knows they are the odds on favs and all around giant slayers LY so just gotta take the wheel and keep going .. Fres had no prob disposing of their FCS opponent which doesn't mean much since it was expected .. But also kinda like that they got to see the trainwreck that Boise was and Beavs def played a great game but that also gives them a pretty good tape to go over too .. just my view but more element of surprise is better than having the game under the belt even if its legit test like vs Boise .. Think that doesn't make this a weird spot even w a trip to USC looming they should be ready for a Beavers team that's already proven themselves more than a little dangerous .. 

The other thing is we're getting a pretty decent deal here SP+ woulda had the opener Bulldogs -4.5 neutral so maybe a TD favs at home.. models weren't that impressed w the boise st win as it's still around -3 neutral / maybe 5 or 6 w the HFA tacked on .. Makes sense books are respecting the big win and clued in what the bettors are likely to play this week but thats quite a few points moving to +1 .. I think we're getting what we want in terms of value for a pretty legit Fres team playing at home .. Beavs absolutely crushed opponents in Corvallis LY think they went perfect 6-0 SU/ATS or something incredible and off to a hot start once again .. But also recall Boise started last year really not being able to run the ball for a good maybe half the season all kinda struggles .. if not for the backup QB taking off Boise RB's only had like 20 yards rushing 1 yard / carry .. same prob they had last year .. tack on Bachmeier who might have taken too many hits over the last 5 years in his career just seeing ghosts and throwing ugly picks all over plus the backup throwing another .. Oregon st nabbed 5 turnovers but also their QB tossed 2 back .. Haener 33-9 TD's to picks LY was pretty good .. just feels like what we saw was more continuation of Boise's long slide from G5 greatness plus a really terrible game w the backup QB playing most of it ... not so much a vastly improved Beavs team looking dominant .. could be wrong but think Bad Game Boise makes more sense and were getting beaves away from home where they played much better and likely a pretty decent value here .. gotta do it!!!! - good luck!!

@Bridge1

 Knew you’d pick Fresno because I’m on the Beavs lol …I was waiting for it all night… not one of my big plays but fair enough… it’s a coin flip game anyway…..I still like Oregon St. and John Smith… My last post until the fireworks this weekend …

just a friendly reminder… don’t forget to do a write up on Baylor lol… notice you missed that one….

GL ;)

Wayyyy to much fighting in this thread especially considering the OP poster gives good info and writeups and doesn't attack others. 

Let's stick to football posts please. 

BRIDGE PLAY

BAMA / TEXAS UNDER 66

Picked up at BAS really wanted 66.5 making a few point combos a winner instead of a tie but I'm seeing 65 at a couple shops and 66 at two so may have to shop around for a best number .. Circa came out at 59.5 so quite a move already and likely some reluctance not keep moving it up .. But alas we know there is only one direction the great hoard is gunna bet this one, and shops gunna get pummeled with overs from the typical Bama over money and combined w the Horns yeah its a hott bet for sure esp after their week 1 games .. Could keep going to 67 by kickoff but think it might fall back at some point having moved almost a TD already ..

Besides the massive value move there's a decent angle. We knew this Bama squad was not flush with proven first round WR's the way its been the last few years .. we also seen Bryce struggle last year with Metchie out and much more w both him and Jameson out in the champ game .. they lost those guys plus lost seemingly next in line Agiye Hall to the Horns and there have been a couple injuries in the unit already leading up to week 1 .. My sense was Saban likely have a WR tryout early on, fair to say we saw that last week w 40 pass att's vs little Utah State, even got both backup QB's air mailing it which we don't often see .. maybe we see another one next week vs ULM?... I don't expect to see that in this hostile environment .. HUGE game and a HUGE talent load on Texas .. No reason to take avoidable risks and think Saban can rest easy just putting Sark in Rush Attack Hell for 3 hours and not rely much on his gaggle of new WR's .. Obvi the game could play out differently, punt blocks, returns, explosive rush scores other stuff .. Horns D could just get romped so bad it goes over too I suppose .. But think this one is likely angling toward an under in most outcomes and even if some fireworks early if they're up a couple scores I think its straight to the Saban Sleeperhold ... backup QB Milroe comes in late think unlikely he's airing it out either after he threw a pick last week .. Coulda gone UT TTU at 24 .. 24.5 would be a solid number if available .. also H1 U35.5 seems good too seein 34.5's now .. would def expect UT to tread lightly throwing it early, maybe take some shots but gotta rely on Bijan as long as they can .. 

We've seen Saban break out the Rush Attack Torture Chamber a few times LY even with the good WR's .. @UF, @Miss State and vs Cincy.. All away from home, 2 under and UF game did manage to tie the total at 60 w the epic gator comeback but that was heading under the whole way even w Bama up 21-3 in Q1 it slowed wayyy down .. Bama put up 10 more after.. Could also hit it in-game under if Bama has a couple quick TD strikes I might look for that.. Anyway think more than a decent incentive for Saban to dust off the RATC type of game plan in this spot and think a bit of value is already tacked onto it. - Good luck!

Finally a wrap? Think so... Good luck!! 

BRIDGE PLAYS
UCF -6.5
MISS STATE -7.5
N.ILLINOIS +6.5
FRESNO STATE +1 
LIBERTY / UAB OVER 50
BAMA / TEXAS UNDER 66
NEBRASKA / GA.SO OVER 60
HOUSTON / T-TECH OVER 63
WASH STATE / WISCO OVER 45.5

SMALLER
BAYLOR +3
AUBURN -23
MISS STATE -13.5
BAMA -17.5 (GOY)
GEORGIA STATE +7
EAST CAROLINA -12.5
COLORADO STATE -7.5
WASH STATE +15.5 (GOY)
VANDY / WAKE OVER 62
ILLINOIS / UVA OVER 56
OK.STATE / ASU OVER 52.5
S.BAMA / C.MICH OVER 59.5
ARKANSAS / S.CAR OVER 52.5
FLORIDA / KENTUCKY UNDER 53
UCONN / CUSE UNDER 54
V.TECH / BC UNDER 45.5
GEORGIA TECH +24.5 

FUN BETs
IOWA STATE ML/U41.5

Go get em Bridge GL bro 

BRIDGE PLAY

IOWA TT UNDER 21.5 -120

I can't say what Iowa State's D is gunna be but we saw the truth last week .. I just don't see this team getting over 3 TD's in a full on slug fest like we're expecting .. Would shop around but do it quick I could def see this going under 20 at some point .. we talked a long time about the WR situation and its been proved not good.. the wind front expected today looks pretty nasty and peaking right at the time of kickoff .. does say only 16 mph which is easy to balk at .. but I think we see one continuous big gust for most all the game .. hence the total down in the 30's now .. I wouldn't fault anyone for taking H1's or other TTU or game total .. when it comes to wind I want the QB with the arm and accuracy that can pick up the 3rd and long .. might have one in hunter dekkars might not, idk .. tough to imagine they even let the Iowa QB pass it this week so unless Clones run D turned into total crap and they prob also need just a bad game here too I think this is another true very very low scoring SLUG FEST!!!

Not the biggest of the bridge plays, almost never BP a TT and hate laying big odds but think the talent/matchup and intensity of the game is likely helping us anyway .. the wind does what I think it will do and I just don't see any way either team is passing much at all and will really screw w offenses generally .. - Good luck!

*** Really does look like rain for that Liberty / UAB game .. was lookin clear for us earlier this week .. total still around 50 right now think i'd expect that to drop a little bit, kinda surprised it hasn't .. anyway rain or weather can be a friend to the total sometimes w dynamic running QB's keeping things off balance .. that said Lib stadium is turf and just don't know if/how the impact works with that or if its consistent .. usually thinking light rain and kinda wet grass field doesn't affect passing much and can keep a D off balance trying not to slip .. can affect offense too obvi but worse for D IMO .. heavy rain puddles and tore up field though less passing / just nasty for everyone RB's slippin too .. 

So just a heads up if you checked that one out .. maybe not the banger I was expecting I might even take the bet down a little but 20/30% or so, haven't done that just yet prob won't get back and post if I do .. my plays always stand as far as my record is gunna be concerned unless I really say I'm hedging out of something all the way or middling, etc .. just wanted to keep ya informed about the weather .. 

Good luck!

BRIDGE PLAY

KANSAS +14

IN LIEPOLD WE TRUST... 

i like it!  GL Bridge.