BRIDGE PLAYS WEEK 2

BRIDGE PLAYS YTD: 4-1
SMALLER YTD: 10-9

WK 1 RECAP:

BRIDGE PLAYS 
OLD DOM +7.5 
W.KENTUCKY -11.5 
FLORIDA STATE +3 
UTAH @ FLORIDA OVER 52.5 
TULSA -1 @ WYOMING 
PITT -7 - TIE

SMALLER:
OLD DOM +8.5 
RICHMOND +21 
S.DAKOTA ST +14 
MARLYLAND -20.5 
W.KENTUCKY -7.5 
C.MICHIGAN +19  
L'VILLE / CUSE UNDER 59.5 
TCU @ COLORADO UNDER 55 
UL-MONROE +38.5
TEXAS STATE +10  
COLORADO STATE +30 
COLORADO STATE +31 
C.MICH @ OK.ST UNDER 59.5 
APP STATE @ UNC UNDER 57 
B.GREEN @ UCLA UNDER 57.5 
HOUSTON @ UTSA UNDER 61.5 

Bridge Plays are FUEGO!

Originally posted in my wk 1 thread today, have a few notes on some of em in there. Think the main thing is I was trying to get in on some of these totals before they moved but didn't have accurate weather a week out for them .. if they've moved I'd just wait to see the coast is clear .. Good luck!

BRIDGE PLAYS
MISS STATE -7.5
NEBRASKA / G.SOUTHERN OVER 60 
WASH STATE / WISCO OVER 45.5
HOUSTON / T-TECH OVER 63

SMALLER
UCF -6
BAYLOR +3
N.ILLINOIS +6.5 
MISS STATE -13.5
BAMA -17.5 (GOY)
WASH STATE +15.5 (GOY)
VANDY / WAKE OVER 62
V.TECH / BC UNDER 45.5
ILLINOIS / UVA OVER 56
UCONN / CUSE UNDER 54
SO. BAMA / C.MICH OVER 59.5

That Miss St. line is -9 now and my numbers/analytics ran a final line of Miss St. -21 

I am keying them in a couple of TEASERS and just gonna watch the game and enjoy. I hope you hit bro ....that -7.5 is a very nice number

what is this?

Seems as we are on opposite sides on the BYU game…. BYU is my play of the week….

Maybe I’m missing something? Lol 

GL on your plays:)

I did some more research on your Baylor-3 pick vs BYU to see is I missed something….

Usually when a pick is screaming at me like BYU -2.5 I’m pretty on target but you never know.. 

Heres my angle:

BYU lost last year at Waco by like 14 points..

-Revenge factor

-Baylor loss of Bohannon.. 9 draft picks including to early round safeties/a LB/OL/ Ebner-RB/Thornton.. all Vital pieces of that BIG 12 Championship team..

-9:15 ESPN game at BYU-place is gonna be nuts

-Hall 2nd year

- BYU well rounded and disciplined

It will be a tough game but I think BYU can pull away at some point…

But would love to hear your Baylor angle.. again I could be wrong… but this is my lock of the week… I’ll retire from posting on Covers if I’m wrong lol

@MLMaverick

 Bohannon lost the qb job to shapen so he transferred … he wasn’t very good last year they just had an insane defense … shapen is better 

@green33

 I’m aware of Shapen…. I appreciate it…. I’m looking at the game as a whole…. Even with Shapen… I think the energy will be too much that night but go with your gut bro… GL

Keep on keeping on Bridge   Tailed you last week with Old Dominion.  

GL week 2 

Already on the Syracuse Under myself 

Think I can answer that.

GOY = Game Of the Year plays. These were select lines posted by books as far back as May 18th. In other words, Bridge bought those plays weeks ago and those numbers may not be available now. I grabbed Bama -16 weeks ago as that game was included in Draft Kings early, GOY offers. 

Bbbbrrrriiidddggggeeee!!!!! What's good, my man?!?!? 

Good to see you off and running. Looking forward to another great year. Hope all is well brother! Let's. Get. It. 

Go Dawgs!!!

@Last2thirst Yeah I have Miss State being better this year and SP+ had this about 3 TD's pre-ssn and I could totally see this being a trap for leach going on the road and dicking around before the big LSU game with an AZ team that is obvi better but how much is speculative .. don't think Aztecs offense can be that strong with Burmeister at the wheel .. he and SDSU certainly are a match in stunted offensive heaven .. run game put up 20 on the cats I think they had 50 yds passing (by design) so we don't know how good Cas pass D is gunna be yet and we know the offense could do something ..  maybe a false result yesterday w the huge upset? .. gotta play the gut and gut says play the maybe top 10 team, maybe not we'll see ...  

@beermugs yeah what Uni said goy = game of the year I posted all of those in my pre-ssn thread or week 1 and as you can see sometimes I end up with the best line and sometimes I don't lol .. 

@MLMaverick - I get all your points and smaller bet for me on the Bears .. I can def be wrong (see above), not gunna talking anyone outta playing BYU you like it trust yer gut .. I didn't trust Baylor LY to have any sorta offense, their RSW was like 5 to start the year w their offense losing a bunch of guys .. but they were fine, OC Grimes came in and didn't take long to be much improved .. He was the OC at BYU during their great year and guy we can trust to have his squad show up and at least know the QB is better than what they had LY so should be fine .. Also trust the HC/DC to have guys in the pipeline, what a great place to learn some real defense and get a shot at the NFL .. again just my gut they got some dudes still .. But agree w you too I was hoping we'd get +4.5 or more after BYU bombin last week they're obvi looking like beasts again and yet the line doesn't move much think GOY was +2 or so before week 1 .. clearly a Coogs team that's looking to make some hay again this year .. I don't particularly like the spot for the Coogs after a big roadie to florida game and big win w ducks on deck .. literally all I got on it, could easily be wrong .. I was w Pitt / WV!!!!

@wolfeman3 - hahaaaaa ODU ..  spot of the century lol .. I was saying all off ssn we just need 100 yards and we can win .. lol .. jk well yeah thought the O would do better, they really coulda laid the wood but VT's D is pretty good looking .. knew Grant Wells would be a dud, threw another 4-Pick-Puker ..  

@buddygurt - yeah was that just screamin to be hit? .. think they got the message down 3 pts quick I think that should be down in the 40's somewhere .. if Cuse doesnt make Conn work the clock and gives up easy scores we're in trouble .. I could see Conn jump out early again here too they have to be feeling good about week zero and couple of RB's really running hard .. 

@UGA520 - duuuuude!!!! gettin my annual checkup from OG KILLA UGA520 .. The Only 10 Star General in the Bridge Army, has rank over everyone lol!!!! Thanks and hope alll is well bud .. You happen to see my very first post / very first pick of the pre-ssn??? .. funny feeling you'll like it ... after week 1 I think everyone else does too .. ALOT!!! Those TE's got Noodle Arm looking like Lamar TeboWinston .. good luck this year bud!! 

Note on T-Tech btw obvi had the news of the QB injury .. we know the backup Donovan Smith is capable, is he legit fill in for Shough idk but they liked him in camp and did great in relief last week albeit vs nobody to really judge him against .. The play is similar to what we're doing w Wash state just think the O plays realllly fast sure looks like it based on the 1 game .. Kitley had his #2 and #3 QB's playing just like W.KY last week ultra sonic .. so think we see that and see'em taking all kinda risks again .. we know Houston's D is stout and maybe they cause us trouble but they looked a little susceptible to UTSA's pass game to me .. and if T-Tech wants to roll the dice and give Houston some easy scores I think the Coogs totally ablige them and convert some TD's, that offense really really needs to find some rhythm and cut the mistakes out .. Tech's D might cause them trouble but should be alot of scoring opps .. and woah nellie did they find another great punt returner .. pure grease lighting .. 

Touched on Huskers / G.So last week .. the hope is they don't put drives together and dick around and the 10 yard line .. my read on G.So is their D is realllllly not good .. probably worse than a pretty good FCS team like N.Dakota .. and if there was just ever a game with the spot when you better show off to the crowd it is this game .. I grabbed some NEB -20.5 they should smoke these guys but man Van T I suspect can actually run their spread attack and might just might hang around .. def went w the better number .. I don't think a double tease would be out of order either if you can get Neb 14 / O 55 or there abouts, or just roll corr parlay -20.5/O 60ish .. I really don't know the extent of Neb's injuries I expected they'd have a few guys out last week for the FCS game after the long trip they got beat up in and sounds like they def had a few on the lam ... really need them back and play a complete game before they play a real big game .. if not then idk gotta get rid of Frost on the spot .. 

Interesting bro.... this part of reply back: "  Yeah I have Miss State being better this year and SP+ had this about 3 TD's pre-ssn "

I got exactly -21 got Miss St. despite being on the road in Arizona using ESPN's SP+ ratings on defense and offense + a math calculation I use and other variable weightings....its a new system I am trying

I find that cool I got the -21 and a strange coincidence that you said 3 TDs ! 

FUN BET

IOWA STATE ML/U41.5

Feel like we're gunna hit one of these one day .. if Clones win I don't think its because the Hawkeyes scored 20 and were able to put up over 22 .. I hit the fun bet last week vs SDSU ML / Under and we could say there was no chance but man Hawkeyes offense had that crowd booin .. only thing that could make em boo harder is seein Petras throw a pick and give Iowa State an easy score .. I'd take my chances just playing Iowa football if I were them .. the WR situation for hawkeyes is terrible and maybe they get more traction this week but maybe not .. nothing I'd bet on .. think we can also say between the two lead in games that Iowa might be a little bit more likely to have guys ding'd up.. was an absolute war last week .. I didn't post but took Iowa State +6.5 smaller GOY line .. I don't think you can hand out more than 3 in this rivalry so wouldn't fault anyone going +3.5 or taking the under here or do the fun bet at +3.5 that actually feels like the better play albeit lower odds .. Clones might also have a QB in hunter dekkars and at least one WR left from Ly so their pass game might be incalculably stronger than the hawkeyes .. does that matter idk .. it def looks like another intense slug fest .. 

Bridge - I like the Miss State play…It is a late game in the desert.  Arizona upset SD State on the road last week with the gunslinger former Washington State QB.  Do you have any concerns with Miss Miss State having LSU in deck as a look ahead.  Or will Leach’s experience and motivation playing in the PAC 12 help him motivate his team to a resounding victory over upstart Arizona in week 2?   Would love to hear your rationale for this matchup?

SMALLER

GEORGIA STATE +7

Panthers played pretty good for a few quarters vs S.Car and the D was really busy against Rattler 6 QB hurries 3 sacks 4 deflections and 2 picks and held the Cocks under 300 yards .. GA.State had a really tough time offensively w Grainger having a really bad day passing and he was on the run basically all game 7/29 1 td 1 pick is not inspiring .. but 200 yds rushing 5.5 / carry and the 3 RB's were fine and Grainger ended w positive yards and ZERO sacks .. Now they're at home getting a TD vs UNC who sure thing had a hayday offensively last week in Boone App's offense had a total field day and shoulda tied at the end .. NC def not a team I'd bet money on as a fav .. up 20 and let app storm back lol no lead secure .. Was surprised about Grainger's performance he was the dude who made this team work down the stretch LY and think he just ran into a pretty good D .. we missed the best line, Circa at +9 so giving up some value and always possible UNC just gets their bearings and rolls ... but you see the run D suck and making Chase Brice a heisman w 300 yds and 6TD's only 1 pick I think they got problems .. gotta go smaller but man feels like one that could turn with a well placed turnover .. its in a UDML for sure .. 

@LonghornHoosier

 I have more than a few concerns about leach going on the road unusual weather environment big game vs team he should kill and has a big game on deck .. 100% concerned .. banking on the team being good this year I think they are truly improved to a high level in most every way and hope I don't get the Leach treatment which can really be cruel seen them dick around w 2 smaller teams LY and lose to Memphis and the bowl game .. when it happens it happens big and bad .. we saw the RB's able to do something even if it wasn't big yards when they need a few it looks like maybe they can get it w the guys they have this year .. might still be low y/carry but that little better run game is huge .. Will Rogers and the Rec corps looks like pure fire so hope we see that again .. Ariz's DC is first time DC/Playcaller so we'll see .. 

@Last2thirst

Yeah SP+ w 21 and another model I like said the same for pre-ssn numebrs .. I look at that w a basic HFA number tacked on and if I agree see what I agree w  .. those were the numbers last week so obvi should change .. it does seem like UA is now a functional team .. think SP and other models were likely overrating SDSU though if the D isin't extra stout again you're stuck w maybe average D and really crappy offense and we know Burmeister fits that description .. and lost the good punter a legit weapon .. 

SP+ is based on better / worse vs the average so think we're doing the same thing w the O/D to get the score .. start w average as the baseline and add on the differential from the team O rating less avg plus the opp D rating less avg .. then I put a basic 3 on for the home team .. that seems to get me close enough to what Bill C ends up with when he tweets his stuff out, think he maybe gives home team 1 extra point? .. and that kinda makes sense HFA is gunna be particular to some teams and in some situations .. model maybe sees some teams HFA as basically non-existent .. if the model adjusts on factors that correllate over 131 teams I think we can see how it would get watered down .. maybe means teams with a real HFA that play a bunch of home games early on get overrated and vice versa .. maybe teams that usually have no real HFA have a big game coming up the model would tend to underrate?.. idk .. remind me to ask Bill about that when we're on the call w him this week .. lol .. 

@Bridge1

 I do a final crossover variance between offense/defense and then finally look at returning production on each side (off vs def) and then adjust

Its working so far and incorporates math, then I add the human factor, coaches, tidbits and other things.....

Got the time to do it now so gonna see how it pans out. No way I have the time and experience some of you guys have but will spend the time to aim to catch up at least half way? 

If Miss State can't win that game easily and convincingly it's gonna be a very bad sign for them going forward.. They are just too much better than this team, road game out West or not.