Freaks Weirdos Who-Have-They-Played-Guy Psycho Conference Fan Guy
Hello everyone.
Thanks again for a fun season. Covers Nation ......We had a great run 12/12 winning weeks and over 70% hit rate but that means squat now. Bowl season is a different animal and for us at least - it is a huge handicapping challenge. Have fun. Play safe. We find the bowls so much more difficult than the regular season so be warned. We do promise to try and deliver winners. At a minimum will provide a write-up on every game and answer and and any questions as per usual. Looking forward to the banter and best of luck.
Will make TWO bowl threads.
1 - early bowl games to dec 30
2 - dec 31 and later (this thread)
mega
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Freaks Weirdos Who-Have-They-Played-Guy Psycho Conference Fan Guy
Hello everyone.
Thanks again for a fun season. Covers Nation ......We had a great run 12/12 winning weeks and over 70% hit rate but that means squat now. Bowl season is a different animal and for us at least - it is a huge handicapping challenge. Have fun. Play safe. We find the bowls so much more difficult than the regular season so be warned. We do promise to try and deliver winners. At a minimum will provide a write-up on every game and answer and and any questions as per usual. Looking forward to the banter and best of luck.
We are literally counting the seconds down until this baby gets underway. What a matchup ! Both teams are excellent and are not surprised that either team made it to this stage. This is a perceived value pick on our part. If the Sooners were +4 we would probably take them. Just seems like a tight one to us and will grab the 4 points.
First things first. If you are a Who-Have-They-Played Guy - we do not really have time for that - all the best. Furthermore - both teams have some questions. Would Clemson's D be rated this high if they played in the big 12. No. Would the Sooners O be rated this high if they had Clemson's schedule. Probably not. Yes Oklahoma lost to Texas. Yes they played teams with backup QBs including a one point win vs TCU. But Mayfield got hurt in that game. Clemson did not coast like they should have - BUT - they won 13 freaking games and put up 500Y 9 straight games. Our point? RELAX. We can all do our best to surmise WHAT IF....but we do not know how this game will go - we can only each make our best guess.
Both teams have excellent balanced offenses. Both QBs are so good especially Watson who is one of the best players in the NCAA. 30 TD passing. almost 900Y rushing and 11 TD. His ability to MATRICULATE in the passing game as well as run for big yards (289 passing 131 rushing last wk alone) will be a handful. say what you want about the UNC onside kick screwjob last week - clemson had over 600Y offense and did whatever they wanted while holding UNC to 12-35 passing. They are excellent on 3rd downs (#12 offense - #2 on D) and that is one of the advantages we see for Clemson - schedule notwithstanding they are excellent on 3rd downs. The other thing we like is that they are #5 in the NCAA in sks/game and #2 in TFL/game....Sooners are #112 in sacks against/game and #88 in TFL against/game. We give the PENETRATION advantage to Clemson as well.
Now the Sooners have a nice edge in turnover margin. And god help us if the game comes down to Clemson needing a FG to cover or their punter to NOT run on 4th and 37 from their own 5 yd line. This is going to be a huge challenge for the Clemson D - but they held up well last game vs UNC. It will also be a challenge for Watson to do a lot vs a Sooners pass D that ranks very well in pass eff D despite playing in the big 12.
Revenge? Well do not think that plays a part in a game of this magnitude. Could just as easily say Clemson handled them last yr without Watson and are extra motivated b/c they are an underdog. Again - we are just going for our perceived value.
Finally. We do not need a 6th Dabo sermon. But this HC has just been fantastic. Big games. A winner. LSU. ohio St. sooners. Florida St. Notre Dame.....last 5 years wins - 10/11/11/10/13....We like Stoops too - but we like Dabo getting 4 points in this one.
GL to all ! and yes - to our Tweeps - we WILL have the frosty Clemson mug going on Dec 31. GL to all Sooners fans as well - just want a good game. May the best team win.
MEGA
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first pick
Capital One Ford Mazda Twinkie Sonic ORANGE BOWL
Clemson +4
Megalocks line - pick em
Sagarin - Oklahoma 3
We are literally counting the seconds down until this baby gets underway. What a matchup ! Both teams are excellent and are not surprised that either team made it to this stage. This is a perceived value pick on our part. If the Sooners were +4 we would probably take them. Just seems like a tight one to us and will grab the 4 points.
First things first. If you are a Who-Have-They-Played Guy - we do not really have time for that - all the best. Furthermore - both teams have some questions. Would Clemson's D be rated this high if they played in the big 12. No. Would the Sooners O be rated this high if they had Clemson's schedule. Probably not. Yes Oklahoma lost to Texas. Yes they played teams with backup QBs including a one point win vs TCU. But Mayfield got hurt in that game. Clemson did not coast like they should have - BUT - they won 13 freaking games and put up 500Y 9 straight games. Our point? RELAX. We can all do our best to surmise WHAT IF....but we do not know how this game will go - we can only each make our best guess.
Both teams have excellent balanced offenses. Both QBs are so good especially Watson who is one of the best players in the NCAA. 30 TD passing. almost 900Y rushing and 11 TD. His ability to MATRICULATE in the passing game as well as run for big yards (289 passing 131 rushing last wk alone) will be a handful. say what you want about the UNC onside kick screwjob last week - clemson had over 600Y offense and did whatever they wanted while holding UNC to 12-35 passing. They are excellent on 3rd downs (#12 offense - #2 on D) and that is one of the advantages we see for Clemson - schedule notwithstanding they are excellent on 3rd downs. The other thing we like is that they are #5 in the NCAA in sks/game and #2 in TFL/game....Sooners are #112 in sacks against/game and #88 in TFL against/game. We give the PENETRATION advantage to Clemson as well.
Now the Sooners have a nice edge in turnover margin. And god help us if the game comes down to Clemson needing a FG to cover or their punter to NOT run on 4th and 37 from their own 5 yd line. This is going to be a huge challenge for the Clemson D - but they held up well last game vs UNC. It will also be a challenge for Watson to do a lot vs a Sooners pass D that ranks very well in pass eff D despite playing in the big 12.
Revenge? Well do not think that plays a part in a game of this magnitude. Could just as easily say Clemson handled them last yr without Watson and are extra motivated b/c they are an underdog. Again - we are just going for our perceived value.
Finally. We do not need a 6th Dabo sermon. But this HC has just been fantastic. Big games. A winner. LSU. ohio St. sooners. Florida St. Notre Dame.....last 5 years wins - 10/11/11/10/13....We like Stoops too - but we like Dabo getting 4 points in this one.
GL to all ! and yes - to our Tweeps - we WILL have the frosty Clemson mug going on Dec 31. GL to all Sooners fans as well - just want a good game. May the best team win.
My book is currently @ +3.5..do you think I should lock this in or wait it out for the +4?
nice chatting with you this year. I would grab 3.5.
ALSO - FWIW for Covers Nation - if and only IF this line moves down - i would NOT play it full unit at +3....Full size wager at 3.5 or 4....half size at +3....NO play for us at 2.5 or lower.
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Quote Originally Posted by Dodgy:
Happy to see you here brother BOL on bowl season.
My book is currently @ +3.5..do you think I should lock this in or wait it out for the +4?
nice chatting with you this year. I would grab 3.5.
ALSO - FWIW for Covers Nation - if and only IF this line moves down - i would NOT play it full unit at +3....Full size wager at 3.5 or 4....half size at +3....NO play for us at 2.5 or lower.
Question Sir, I saw Bay/UNC spread do a quick 180 from -3 UNC to +3. I've read it's likely because Stidham might be playing. I don't have the ML yet but if it drops say +120 or 130 for me I'm kind of thinking 1. doesn't sound like bad odds, 2, could that ML flip again at least that much the other way again if/when they remember Stidham broke his neck bone, which some say is connected to the head bone, and next guy up is not another Stidham. I like the team w 3 points in this one but think there might be Malcolm in the ML Middler shot here that locks up say 20-30%... There's prolly worse spots to be than UNC SU w/ odds but is it just better to go points or leave it alone altogether w a big uncertainty like Stidham?
Thanks, glad you're back and BOL!!!
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Alright!!! Weirdos welcome great!!!
Question Sir, I saw Bay/UNC spread do a quick 180 from -3 UNC to +3. I've read it's likely because Stidham might be playing. I don't have the ML yet but if it drops say +120 or 130 for me I'm kind of thinking 1. doesn't sound like bad odds, 2, could that ML flip again at least that much the other way again if/when they remember Stidham broke his neck bone, which some say is connected to the head bone, and next guy up is not another Stidham. I like the team w 3 points in this one but think there might be Malcolm in the ML Middler shot here that locks up say 20-30%... There's prolly worse spots to be than UNC SU w/ odds but is it just better to go points or leave it alone altogether w a big uncertainty like Stidham?
Question Sir, I saw Bay/UNC spread do a quick 180 from -3 UNC to +3. I've read it's likely because Stidham might be playing. I don't have the ML yet but if it drops say +120 or 130 for me I'm kind of thinking 1. doesn't sound like bad odds, 2, could that ML flip again at least that much the other way again if/when they remember Stidham broke his neck bone, which some say is connected to the head bone, and next guy up is not another Stidham. I like the team w 3 points in this one but think there might be Malcolm in the ML Middler shot here that locks up say 20-30%... There's prolly worse spots to be than UNC SU w/ odds but is it just better to go points or leave it alone altogether w a big uncertainty like Stidham?
Thanks, glad you're back and BOL!!!
man you crack me up and you are sharp
I like either team getting points cannot disagree with anything you said. I have NOT looked at this game yet - but i think it pays to wait....just imo.
If Stidham is 100% back - the line will go even higher IMO near game day. Need to do some more research on this one and wait for academic suspensions / gunplay suspensions / domestic violence suspensions.
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Quote Originally Posted by Bridge1:
Alright!!! Weirdos welcome great!!!
Question Sir, I saw Bay/UNC spread do a quick 180 from -3 UNC to +3. I've read it's likely because Stidham might be playing. I don't have the ML yet but if it drops say +120 or 130 for me I'm kind of thinking 1. doesn't sound like bad odds, 2, could that ML flip again at least that much the other way again if/when they remember Stidham broke his neck bone, which some say is connected to the head bone, and next guy up is not another Stidham. I like the team w 3 points in this one but think there might be Malcolm in the ML Middler shot here that locks up say 20-30%... There's prolly worse spots to be than UNC SU w/ odds but is it just better to go points or leave it alone altogether w a big uncertainty like Stidham?
Thanks, glad you're back and BOL!!!
man you crack me up and you are sharp
I like either team getting points cannot disagree with anything you said. I have NOT looked at this game yet - but i think it pays to wait....just imo.
If Stidham is 100% back - the line will go even higher IMO near game day. Need to do some more research on this one and wait for academic suspensions / gunplay suspensions / domestic violence suspensions.
I like either team getting points cannot disagree with anything you said. I have NOT looked at this game yet - but i think it pays to wait....just imo.
If Stidham is 100% back - the line will go even higher IMO near game day. Need to do some more research on this one and wait for academic suspensions / gunplay suspensions / domestic violence suspensions.
Wordup, ask a question get an answer!
Correction, neckbone / headbone was Seth Russell. Stidham's was calcaneus / ...uh...oh yeah subtalar joint... still its not the kind of thing a "reflexology" sesh near the Waco airport is gunna rub right out.. ... trust me.
Good stuff Mega I'll think on this one for a minute.
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Quote Originally Posted by MEGALOCKS:
man you crack me up and you are sharp
I like either team getting points cannot disagree with anything you said. I have NOT looked at this game yet - but i think it pays to wait....just imo.
If Stidham is 100% back - the line will go even higher IMO near game day. Need to do some more research on this one and wait for academic suspensions / gunplay suspensions / domestic violence suspensions.
Wordup, ask a question get an answer!
Correction, neckbone / headbone was Seth Russell. Stidham's was calcaneus / ...uh...oh yeah subtalar joint... still its not the kind of thing a "reflexology" sesh near the Waco airport is gunna rub right out.. ... trust me.
Good stuff Mega I'll think on this one for a minute.
Freaks Weirdos Who-Have-They-Played-Guy Psycho Conference Fan Guy Hello everyone.Thanks again for a fun season. Covers Nation ......We had a great run 12/12 winning weeks and over 70% hit rate but that means squat now. Bowl season is a different animal and for us at least - it is a huge handicapping challenge. Have fun. Play safe. We find the bowls so much more difficult than the regular season so be warned. We do promise to try and deliver winners. At a minimum will provide a write-up on every game and answer and and any questions as per usual. Looking forward to the banter and best of luck. Will make TWO bowl threads.1 - early bowl games to dec 302 - dec 31 and later
Quote Originally Posted by MEGALOCKS:
Freaks Weirdos Who-Have-They-Played-Guy Psycho Conference Fan Guy Hello everyone.Thanks again for a fun season. Covers Nation ......We had a great run 12/12 winning weeks and over 70% hit rate but that means squat now. Bowl season is a different animal and for us at least - it is a huge handicapping challenge. Have fun. Play safe. We find the bowls so much more difficult than the regular season so be warned. We do promise to try and deliver winners. At a minimum will provide a write-up on every game and answer and and any questions as per usual. Looking forward to the banter and best of luck. Will make TWO bowl threads.1 - early bowl games to dec 302 - dec 31 and later (this thread)mega
So what you're saying is we are going to have the hap-hap-happiest Christmas since Bing Crosby tap danced with Danny Fukin K?
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Quote Originally Posted by MEGALOCKS:
Freaks Weirdos Who-Have-They-Played-Guy Psycho Conference Fan Guy Hello everyone.Thanks again for a fun season. Covers Nation ......We had a great run 12/12 winning weeks and over 70% hit rate but that means squat now. Bowl season is a different animal and for us at least - it is a huge handicapping challenge. Have fun. Play safe. We find the bowls so much more difficult than the regular season so be warned. We do promise to try and deliver winners. At a minimum will provide a write-up on every game and answer and and any questions as per usual. Looking forward to the banter and best of luck. Will make TWO bowl threads.1 - early bowl games to dec 302 - dec 31 and later
Quote Originally Posted by MEGALOCKS:
Freaks Weirdos Who-Have-They-Played-Guy Psycho Conference Fan Guy Hello everyone.Thanks again for a fun season. Covers Nation ......We had a great run 12/12 winning weeks and over 70% hit rate but that means squat now. Bowl season is a different animal and for us at least - it is a huge handicapping challenge. Have fun. Play safe. We find the bowls so much more difficult than the regular season so be warned. We do promise to try and deliver winners. At a minimum will provide a write-up on every game and answer and and any questions as per usual. Looking forward to the banter and best of luck. Will make TWO bowl threads.1 - early bowl games to dec 302 - dec 31 and later (this thread)mega
So what you're saying is we are going to have the hap-hap-happiest Christmas since Bing Crosby tap danced with Danny Fukin K?
Never overestimate Nevada--or motto, "we strive for mediocrity"
Air Force--Really?
Actually like Utah State--will be nippy at Boise
Boise State-lost interest
Would like to think the #1 team in the MW can beat Cincinnati, but I also believe in Santa Claus.
A side note, you have made this the most enjoyable college football season ever. I can only imagine the hard work you put in, but it is so was greatly appreciated. To risk posting your picks among these wonderful cappers and not worry about your reputation has won my admiration. Thank you and I wish the very best for you and your family.
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Never overestimate Nevada--or motto, "we strive for mediocrity"
Air Force--Really?
Actually like Utah State--will be nippy at Boise
Boise State-lost interest
Would like to think the #1 team in the MW can beat Cincinnati, but I also believe in Santa Claus.
A side note, you have made this the most enjoyable college football season ever. I can only imagine the hard work you put in, but it is so was greatly appreciated. To risk posting your picks among these wonderful cappers and not worry about your reputation has won my admiration. Thank you and I wish the very best for you and your family.
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Weirdos 
......We had a great run 12/12 winning weeks and over 70% hit rate but that means squat now. Bowl season is a different animal and for us at least - it is a huge handicapping challenge. Have fun. Play safe. We find the bowls so much more difficult than the regular season so be warned. We do promise to try and deliver winners. At a minimum will provide a write-up on every game and answer and and any questions as per usual. Looking forward to the banter and best of luck. 
We can all do our best to surmise WHAT IF....but we do not know how this game will go - we can only each make our best guess.
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