BCS National Championship
Jan. 8, 8 p.m. ET
Dolphin Stadium, Miami
When you have two teams getting together that are this good for a championship, you have to look for subtle edges that
might separate the teams. Here are two particular spots where Florida is better than Oklahoma. First, in the coaching ranks. Where Urban Meyer has excelled in BCS level games, first with Utah, now with Florida, Bob Stoops has been stumped. His clubs have lost four straight BCS games. It’s almost like they are overwhelmed once they escape the Big 12 style of football. The other edge is Florida on defense, not only because of pure stats like yards per play, but because of the fact that the Gators gave up more than 20 points on only two occasions this season, while OU foes topped that mark nine times. Florida holds an edge on the defensive side of the ball, yielding around 0.7 YPP less than the Sooners and defense tends to prevail in January bowl games. Florida opponents scored 25.4 PPG while the Sooners’ foes scored 31.5 PPG. (The Gators are 7-0 ATS vs. very good offensive teams - scoring 34+ PPG under coach Meyer.) Florida just figures to get more stops. Florida's defense is led by safety Ahmad Black, who returned six interceptions for 191 yards and two touchdowns, linebacker Brandon Spikes (team-high 87 tackles, four INTs, two TDs) and defensive back Joe Haden, who returned three picks for 136 yards and made 77 tackles. Carlos Dunlap topped the Gators with nine sacks, while Jermain Cunningham added six. Florida is tied for second in the nation with 24 interceptions. Haden (10 pass breakups, three INTs) and freshman cornerback Janoris Jenkins (team-high 11 PBUs, three INTs) have lined up against bigger receivers all season and held their own. Wright (three INTs) has started focusing on making big plays instead of looking for big hits. And fellow safety Ahmad Black has been the surprise of the group, turning out to be a sure tackler and instinctive leader after coach Urban Meyer indicated he was too slow to be a starter last season. Also, not many people have focused on the fact that Stoops’ club owned a 21-3 turnover edge in its L6 games. They don’t figure to see that benefit against a Tim Tebow-led club that gave it up less than once per game. Oklahoma has lost in four consecutive BCS bowls to West Va. (48-28), Boise St. (43-42 in OT), USC (55-19) and LSU (21-14). Urban Meyer's Gators are no stranger to this game, as they won the inaugural BCS Title Game two years ago, with a thorough whipping of the Ohio State Buckeyes (41-14). The majority of the competition in 2008 can certainly attest to how the Buckeyes felt in that game, as outside of a humbling setback at home to Ole Miss in late September (31-30), the Gators have rolled over their foes, including lopsided wins against Tennessee (30-6), Georgia (49-10) and Florida State (45-15) outside of Gainesville and an equally impressive performance against LSU (51-21) at home. The Gator offense is also another big reason why the team is in a position to win its second national title in the last three years. It certainly doesn't hurt to have a Heisman Trophy winner running the show in Tebow. The junior signal- caller, who won the Heisman as a sophomore, was a finalist this year, after leading an offense that had little trouble moving the football both on the ground (229.8 ypg) or through the air (212.6 ypg). Tebow was certainly a big part of that, passing for 2,515 yards and 28 TDs against a mere two interceptions. The talented field general also rushed for well over 500 yards, with another 12 TDs on the ground. The biggest difference between this year and last for Tebow, is his supporting cast, as he is no longer the primary weapon on this side of the football. That title has to go to the versatile Percy Harvin, who was a handful both in the backfield (538 rushing yards, nine TDs) and on the outside (35 receptions, 595 yards, seven TD receptions). Other key contributors include freshmen tailbacks Chris Rainey (team-high 655 yards, four TDs) and Jeff Demps (582 yards, seven TDs) and senior wideout Louis Murphy (36 receptions, 611 yards, six TDs). This Florida team has enough veterans on the squad that know what it is like to play in this type of atmosphere with everything on the line. Expect both teams to come out fired up, with several momentum swings early on. However, when things settle down. the old saying that "speed kills" will ring true, and overall team speed, including the all-important special teams, resides with the Gators.My opinion in this game is to take:
FLORIDA -3
Have them capped as winning the game by around 8-12 points.