B1G week 8

Well if you blindly bet the ratings (apparently something I should have done) in week 7 you would have had a nice 8-1 ATS day. Spits out some shocking numbers, but has been a pretty good predictor for most teams over the years actually. 

As for me... 
All game picks: 18-16
B1G: 5-5
Props: 3-1 

Week 8 B1G: 

1. Indiana
2. Oregon +0.9
3. USC +1.0
4. Nebraska +8.5
5. OSU +8.8
6. Michigan +12.8
7. Washington +13.2
8. Iowa +17.9
9. Penn St +22.4
10. Purdue +22.5
T11. NW +24.8
T11. Rutgers +24.8
13. UCLA +26.4
14. Maryland +26.6
15. Wisconsin +28
16. Illinois +29
17. Minnesota +31.1
18. Michigan State +33 

Starting to agree with the majority of this. OSU gets knocked as they only really managed 200 yards of O vs Texas back in week 1 and got 330 yards put on em so that difference is why they are where they are even though they're ranked #1 in the AP. Nice win out west in my opinion beating UW. Cignetti and his Hoosiers are #1 rightfully so. Very impressive coach and team - I for one did not think he was going to sustain what happened last year but they appear to be a stronger team that should be talked about in the national title conversation. Completely dismantled a ranked Illinois team by 50 as 4 point favorites in week 4 & then have the most impressive W in the conference this year with an across the country road win @ Oregon. Hold a net +209 ypg this year to date which is just dominating your opposition no matter how you slice it. 

FWIW the number I kind of look at when I'm considering futures is around the 175 ypg mark as this is the average of the 11 CFP champions. Few have been below that but have had elite, top 1-3 defenses, to make up for the lack of explosiveness on offense. Currently in the B1G has USC, Oregon, Indiana in this category but Idk on USC I think they've been rather fortunate to this point with how the schedule has set up and this week won't tell us much either as I don't expect they'll travel well. Again this doesn't apply to EVERY team but moreso the power 4 that have a more balanced schedule when all is said and done or those G5 teams that have strong OOC showings. Have to look at the full picture but just sharing how I begin to narrow things down.

 I really like reading your post's Hockey. I am an old guy that has been watching college football for more years than I care to admit. I am a Husker homer. I have seen the good years and for far to long the bad. I think they finally shake the monkey off their back and get the best of Fleck and company, but you are light years ahead of me as far as looking at a game and diagnosing it. I would appreciate your thoughts on that one if you have the time. Thanks in advance and good luck on your picks. 

@Leroy11

 For sure! If I'm looking at this just off the above list it appears the Huskers are the right side, laying the -8.5. 

Minnesota is not a good team. Fleck likes to build his team to control the ball and the LOS. They've really struggled to run the football this year averaging only 3.0 ypc which is bottom 10 in the nation. Uncharacteristic of a Fleck team that typically plays big up front and pounds the ball. They're not built to play a high scoring game and win through the air. My concern with Nebraska is their defensive front. They're undersized for sure and can get bullied. Michigan is one of the better rushing attacks in the country and average over 6 ypc on the season and had little problem with the Huskers front. That was still a 3 pt game in the end. If Minnesota can't run the ball I don't see how they have much success offensively. The Gophers are also not the solid defensive unit they typically are. Over the past 5 seasons Fleck has had a top 10-ish defense in terms of yards per game 3 times. This year they're ranking in the 50's which is where they were at in the 23/24 season when they finished 5-7. 

If Minnesota gets the ground game going they're probably able to chew up the clock and keep this thing low scoring and tight. My lean would be Nebraska to get ahead and make it uncomfortable for what the Gophers want to do though. Huskers by double digits is my early thoughts on this one.

 Thanks for the response Hockey. I appreciate your insight. Again, good luck on your picks.

@Leroy11

 You too sir, would pay close attention to the status/health of the Gophers starting RB this week. He’s been banged up for a few weeks now. 

Watch the weather too. Mich at noon, winds and rain hitting mostly later. As forecasted now.

@UNIMAN

 Should be a good spot for Michigan this week. 

Keep rolling Hockey!