Posted:
#1
I hate going against all the very profitable handicappers here: Bibendi, Wussie, amd, Bird4332, badlands, etc.
But, I cant see how this Buffalo team keeps up with Ball State here. This game is on turf, with perfect weather conditions. I think Ball States speed on offense & defense will be the difference. I have won quite a bit of money on Buf this year, but this is where it stops.
It isnt like this Buff team is much above mediocre. They are 7 - 5 with several of their wins in OT, & they won the weak side, East, of the MAC. They are 94th in the nation in team defense & 77th in points allowed. Buf just lost to Kent St last week, and only scored 21 pts. I also looked at the last 4 games that Buf has played, and they played against defenses ranked 93rd, 96th, 52nd, and 91st in the country. The strongest defense, Bowling Green, actually had a 21 - 7 lead into the 4th quarter before they melted down & allowed Buf to win in OT. So, my point is that they have put up some good numbers against teams that arent too good on defense. On the flip side, the BU defense is ranked 94th against the pass & 83rd against the rush. This is not a good position for the BU defense against a very balanced BSU offense.
And while Ball St is 59th in the country in total defense, they are 10th in points allowed. All of Ball State's wins, except 2 (CMU & Navy), have been by at least 15pts. When looking at BSU offense, it appears that they have a great QB who is slinging the ball all over the field. That really isnt the case. They are very balanced on offense, and actually, most of their big yardage plays are off play-action passes when the defense has to have 8 in the box to stop the run. The other element to the BSU offense is the scrambling ability of Nate Davis. Since most of the play-action routes are long & down the field, once Nate decides to run & break contain, there is lots of open space.
I hate being on the opposite side all of these guys who know more about picking winners than I do, but I have to go with the FAV here tonight. My only concern is the backdoor cover. BSU has to be up at least 23pts heading into Buffalo's last drive to feel comfortable. Buf could very well score a meaningless TD in the last 5 mins to cover the number.
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