I'm gonna start out with this: I just wasted 2 hours of research and typng up a write-up and then accidentally closed my window, so this is Round 2!
This line is LOW because people think that Nebraska has an awesome defense. They MAY have a DISTANT 2nd best Defense in CONFERENCE, but NOT EVEN COMPARABLE to the #1 DEFENSE in the NATION.
Power rankings, rating systems, and voters deciding on who gets INTO the NCAA Tourney bracket look HIGHLY on a teams SOS.
I tend to look under the stones and twigs that most people don't look into. I believe that a lot of people take stats and trends and bet on them without looking into them first. They don't understand where the stats REALLY came from and that some trends include games from the 90's.
Nebraska has a REALLY REALLY easy non-conf schedule. In fact they had the #340 non-conf schedule out of 345 Div-1 teams.
They played Arkansas Pine Bluff, Hofstra, Creighton, Savannah St, Grambling, a CHRISTIAN group from TEXAS, Alcorn St., Eastern Washington, employees from Harley DAVIDSON, my friend JACKSON st., and North & South Korea,...I mean Dakota.
One of those teams sound like the noise my stomach makes from time to time. And are Alcorn, Savannah & Jackson the 51st, 52nd & 53rd states in the U.S?!?! (Sorry, I had to have a little fun there)
That non-conf SOS is as bad as Cincinatti and almost every sportscaster and analyst jumped all over Cincy for that, saying that they had to prove their worthiness after playing patty-cake in the women's Div. 2 area.
SOOOO....What am I getting at? Nebraska produced some very fraudulent stats. If you take out their non-conf and look at their CONFERENCE stats, the picture gets a lot clearer.
WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW ABOUT NEBRASKA:
*Nebraska's Defensive Effective FG% was 44.5% overall, but is 51.3% in conference.
*Their Defensive 3P% is a low 31.4% overall, but a high 37.7% in conference.
*Their Defensive 2P% is a low 42.7% overall, but is 48.3% in conference.
HERE'S THE BIGGEST STAT DIFFERENCE:
Nebraska's Points For/Points Against is 67.5/58.8 overall
Nebraska's Points For/Points Against is 64.7/66.4 in conference.
Nebraska's Avg Point Margin is +8.7 points overall & is -1.6 points in conference.
Texas' Points For/Against is 75.7/59.5 overall
Texas' Points For/Against is 71.9/54.6 in conf.
Texas' Avg Point Margin is +16.2 points overall & +17.3 in conf.
TEXAS HAS GOTTEN BETTER IN CONF WHILE NEBRASKA HAS GOTTEN MUCH WORSE.
IT IS HARD FOR ANY TEAM TO BREAK 60 POINTS AGAINST TEXAS.
WHERE NEBRASKA EXCELLS WHILE TEXAS STRUGGLES:
Nebraska shoots VERY WELL at the FT line hitting 75.5% in conference and 72.1% overall <---this stat is NOT afffected by how easy of a team they play. So I'd say the overall is the better # here, but shooting BETTER in conference could mean that they are CONCENTRATING better against teams of their caliber.
Texas struggles at the FT line 63.8% in conf (64.4% overall)
NOW that I've said that, the part that most people don't look at:
THESE STATS ARE CONFLICTINGLY IN TEXAS' FAVOR:
Texas' gameplan involves GETTING TO THE FT LINE. Though they may NOT be good at shooting them, THEY SCORE A LOT OF POINTS by doing so.
This stat, IMO, you have to look at their CONFERENCE FTA/FGA and NOT their overall stat because in conf these teams are playing teams that are more of their caliber and that'll affect how easy/hard it is to get fouled and get to the FT line. Also it affects how easy/hard it is to ATTEMPT FGs.
So,...in conf. Texas' FTA/FGA is a staggering 50.8 and DEFENSIVELY ONLY 27.5. The nations's average is 37.9. so Texas EXCELLS at geting to the FT line while LIMITING opps to a lot less. That means they are good a DRAWING THE FOULS and are smart at NOT committing fouls.
Nebraka is an underachieving team for drawing the fouls. Their FTA/FGA is 34.7 in conf which is worse than the nation's average. Their defensive FTA/FGA is 42.0 in conf meaning that they are NOT smart about committing fouls and they don't TRY to get fouled.
Why does this matter? Here are the cold hard facts:
Texas has MADE 415 points out of 641 attempts at the FT line this season.
Nebraska has only made 311 points in 428 attempts.
TEXAS has OUTSCORED Nebraska by 104 points at the FT line ALONE this year!
PLUS they PUT TEAMS closer into foul trouble than ANY team wants, and THAT can really throw a team's gameplan off.
LET'S TALK W/L & ATS RECORDS:
Texas is 23-3 overall and 11-0 in conf. Nebraska is 17-8 including their powder-puff non-confs and more importantly is 5-6 in CONFERENCE.
Texas has beat ALL their conf opps by DOUBLE-DIGITS except by one team. And that one Baylor team was won by 9 points, one-digit off of "double-digits". Their NEXT CLOSEST WIN was away @ the Kansas Jayhawks on THEIR court by 11 points. PLUS Texas has 4 of those conf games being by 20 or more points.
Nebraska has struggled in conference play and sit below .500. They are a weak 5-6 in conf.
Texas is 16-5 ATS and I take that as a BIG indicator of how a team is playing. Spreads are a way of "predicting" what a team should win or lose by. If a team is OVER .500 ATS, they are EXCEEDING EXPECTATIONS.
If a team (such as Nebraska is 9-9 ATS) is around .500 ATS, they are doing what is expected. If UNDER .500, they ARE NOT meeting FAN'S AND ODDSMAKER'S EXPECTIONS.
I AM NOT GOING TO SHOW ANY STATS FOR TEXAS BECAUSE THERE ARE TOO MANY. I've posted all that before and try to show people the mismatches and stats that people don't see.
Just pull up a stat sheet on them and gander at them for awhile, you'll get the picture. And if you've done what I feel is the BEST way to analyze a team, you definitely would know these teams better if you watched them.
If you wanna know they players that are good, again, watch the games or pull up some stats on them. I bet on teams as a whole, hence that's where I lay my research. Sure there are DEFINITELY mismatches that can ba found and "hot" players that are play good, and players who are "cold". I spend WAY TOO MUCH TIME doing THIS stuff, that I need OTHERS to help out in the PERSONEL DEPARTMENT. ANY input is welcome.
I will say that Oklahoma DOES have a very PHYSICAL game down low, but first they have to get the ball in there AND THEN deal with a TexasD that CHOKES their oppenent's offense.
Texas only giving up 6.5 points will be EASY to overcome. They've proven themselves on the road and ARE NOT AFRAID of playing on the road. THIS IS A FNAL FOUR TEAM. And I feel pretty good catching Texas' future bet to win the NCAA Tourney at +700. WAY too much value for me NOT to bite on that one. Just wish I would have caught it EVEN SOONER.
TEXAS -6.5
BOL EVERYBODY!
TexasD
over 122
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