Quote Originally Posted by angrytiger:
I'm frankly surprised this line has moved as much as it has towards Wisconsin.
It reminds me of the Xavier / Marquette line in which I very much ended up on the wrong side of, was about to get off of, but then stayed on for whatever reason.
Maybe somebody knows something that I don't but this is a game I think Butler can win. Maybe the back-to-back down to the wire wins by Butler are swaying people towards Wisconsin, but it's close wins like that that tell me something about Butler's character, because in my opinion if Old Dominion had come out of one of the big 6 conferences, they'd have had a higher seed (does anyone really think Villanova should've been in this tournament, much less a 9 seed?) and Pittsburgh . . . what can you say about the regular season Big East champs? Except that were definitely one of the best teams in this tournament and Butler found a way to take them down.
I don't know, 5 points seems like a lot to give this team.
Does Wisconsin's discipline, swing offense, and defense really make them that much better than Butler when statistically they're ranked 192nd in scoring and 299th in rebounding?
To me, that rebounding stat. gets really important in tournament play.
When I break this game down, it just looks like a close one to me. Closer than 5 points.
I got Butler at +4, but again, that line movement makes me want to take Wisconsin at -5 to cover my ass and go for the 1 point push in either direction, but I'm almost tempted to just double up on Butler and take the extra point.
And if you like Butler, the money line just got tastier.
Just doing this
and looking for opinions on this one.
I'd be very careful when using pure offensive numbers to assess this Wisconsin team. Ken Pomeroy has them as the 2nd best offensive team in the country based upon points per possession. Sure, you won't score 90 per game when you run a methodical offense, but they get more out of each possession than almost anyone.
Likewise, they rebound at a better rate than your stats give credit for. Currently, they rank 9th in the country in defensive rebounding on an opportunity basis. When there are fewer possessions, there will be fewer rebounds. But they grab defensive boards better than all but 9 teams in the country.
Likewise, you're talking about a team that is on pace to set the ALL-TIME NCAA record for FT% and turnover %. What does this all mean? It means they get the most out of their possessions. It means they don't give up extra possessions to the opponent (either with O-rebs or with TOs).
When you look at Wisconsin, you see a team with 8 capable three-point shooters. You see the nation's leader in A/TO ratio. You see a 6'8 senior forward that shoots the 3 at 45%. You see good size and good depth. You see a guy in Jon Leuer who shoots the 3 at 37% and has a strong mid-range game at 6'10. They're a matchup nightmare for most squads because of the inside-outside ability.
They're a largely underrated commodity right now for a number of reasons. Most people have never heard of efficiency statistics, so they look at Wisconsin and say, "Bad offensive team". It's just not the case, though. They are one of the best offensive teams in the country.
Likewise, you have a team with 6 guys who shoot FTs at an 80%+ clip. Not only does this help during the game, but it makes covering a number a LOT easier on the back end when you know free throws are going down.
Just some things to think about here before you lay the house on Butler.