Vegas vs KenPom System Day IV

YTD so far:

All games
7-7
Only games from opening lines
4-0
Games from line movement
3-7

Looks like we will be changing the rules to only include games from opening lines, but I will continue to track both since 4 days is no where near a large enough sample size

System rules:

If the line is between 0 and 4, a large difference is 2 points.
4.5 to 12, a large difference is 3 points.
12.5 to 16, a large difference is 4 points.
16.5 and up, a large difference is 5 points.

There is one exception to this rule:
When Vegas and KenPom have different teams favored it is a no play.  KenPom seems to get more of these close ones right than Vegas.


If there are any questions please see the original thread

There are 4 plays based on opening lines, however I will not make them official until the morning when Kenpom updates his website.

If his predictions on these four games do not change, the 4 plays are:
Northeastern +16
Kent St -3
Northwestern -4
Gonzaga +3.5 (I bet we get a better line on this one so don't lock it in just yet)

There are a few games that are close to being plays...these plays were not very successful tonight but I will continue to track them.  I will list close plays in the morning

he has GM beating NE by 22 and vegas is -16....shouldnt GM be the play?

beaver, nice shit yesterday.  thanks for the opening line picks. went 3-0.  lets breakdown today.  

Uh,,,aren't you the public?

I do believe you are correct and GM should be the play

wait i take that back I think NE is the play

GREAT WORK BEAVER!!...Love the logic and system....Keep up the good info.....

best of luck , but what are the actual plays?

IN CASE YOU DIDN'T SEE MY POST IN YOUR LAST THREAD THESE WERE THE OPENING LINE PICKS



GEORGE MASON/NORTHEASTERN
ST. MARY'S/GONZAGA
ARKANSAS LITTLE ROCK/SOUTH ALABAMA
PENN STATE/NORTHWESTERN
NC GREENSBORO/GEORGIA SOUTHERN

ARKANSAS LITTLE ROCK KENPOM WIN BY 1 VEGAS +2

NORTHWESTERN WIN BY 2 ON KENPOM VEGAS -4

NC GREENSBORO KENPOM WIN BY 2 VEGAS PICK EM

THE KENPOM LINE ON NORTHWESTERN IS NOW 3 POINTS........IT WAS CHANGED AFTER THE DAILY UPDATE.......THERE WERE ADDITIONAL CHANGES

ARIZONA IS NOW 1 POINT
SANTA CLARA IS NOW 9 POINTS
CHARLESTON IS NOW 10 POINTS
GREENSBORO IS NOW 1 POINT

GOOD LUCK

When Vegas and Kenpom disagree, we side with Vegas and the play would be NE +16

I AM INTERESTED TO SEE WHAT HAPPENS IN THIS GAME BECAUSE PEOPLE HAVE TOLD ME THAT GEORGE MASON CAN WIN THIS GAME BY 30

BOL luck today Beaverfan

Beaverfan23

Sorry guys I got a late start today.
As hank pointed out, a few kenpom lines have moved making northwestern a non-play and making appalachian state a play.

So the official opening line plays are:
Northeastern +16
Kent St -3
Gonzaga +3.5 (You can get it at +4 at most places but we will do 3.5 for tracking purposes)
App St +7

I will begin tracking almost plays now

Remember that the 2 point difference can not cross over zero.  In other words, if Vegas and Kenpom have different teams favored to win, it is NOT a play.

Old Dome a pk over James Madison? J.M sucks! Old Dome needs to win this road game badly. Any thougths here..

I like them all but Northeastern

We will take................if it moves from....................to
E.Kentucky.............................-3.5.............................-4
Marquette...............................+5................................+4
WisMil....................................+8.5.............................+8
ODU.......................................-2.5..............................-3
MurraySt.................................-3.5..............................-4
UCDavis................................+3.5.............................+3
SacSt......................................+7................................+6
E.Wash..................................-3..................................-4
PortlandSt.............................+6.................................+5
Nevada..................................-5.5...............................-6