YTD: 5-3
Coming off a difficult loss last night by 1 point -- even more difficult when 139 was widely available earlier in the day.
Today's play:
UCSB / BYU Over 145
Just like in years past, the Marriott Center continues to give BYU one of the best home court advantages in the country. In their 5 home games there this year vs D1 competition, they’ve scored 92, 90, 94, 83, and 93 (avg 90.4). And despite losing Fredette to graduation, the offense has not skipped a beat with respect to offensive efficiency. They enter tonight ranked #19 in the country, scoring 1.116 points per possession. They also have maintained their typical fast pace from year to year, with an identical adjusted tempo of 71.3 possessions per game (#22 nationally).
In addition, BYU should actually see improvement going forward, now that guard Matt Carlino (transfer from UCLA) is eligible. Tonight will be his third game in the lineup this year. Last time out vs Buffalo, Dave Rose gave him his first start of the season and he came through with 10 pts and 11 assists.
The fast pace and high offensive efficiency with which BYU plays is well documented. And tonight they welcome an opponent who brings their own highly efficient offense (1.067 ppp, #63), which is led by one of the most underrated players in the country. Despite already facing Perry Jones from Baylor, Rice considers USCB guard Orlando Johnson the best player to visit the Marriott Center this year. From yesterday’s Salt Lake Tribune:
"It is a very good offensive team, very experienced. I have seen Orlando Johnson play and he’s a terrific player, every bit as good as any player who will play in the Marriott Center this year. He’s a terrific player."
UCSB already demonstrated it is more than willing to get out and run last week in their game vs Washington—a team who plays a very similar style to BYU. That game played to a final of 167 on 73 possessions.
Lastly, it’s a great spot to back an over with UCSB coming off its worst offensive output of the season, a 50 point effort in Berkeley vs Cal. In that game, the duo of Johnson and James Nunnally combined to shoot 9-25 from the floor.
In addition, I am also on: Boise St / Iowa Over 143.5
I locked this in yesterday, but the total has since risen. However, I still like this over up to anything under 150. It should be pretty evident based on each team's pace ratings / offensive efficiency as to why I like this over.
Good luck if you decide to play either game tonight