THURSDAY NCAA 151

well just cannot seem to win the close ones  5 games last 2 nights lose by a half to 1.5 pts   7-5 last night  

YTD 343-280  1-2 on teasers  1-3 on parlays  

looking at Thursday   Merrimack at Mnt st marys  Mnt st marys had beaten Merrimack like 7 str times until last game earlier this year where Merrimack won at home 75-65 Merrimack was -3.5 then and the total was 141  so they covered and it went under, Merrimack is a good under team as they are 2-11 under after a win  7-16 on the year, and MSM is 2-7 Under after a win and are 7-16 under on the year so chances are this goes Under , but this time the total is just 132.5 and it had dropped 3 points from an opener of 135.5  Merrimack is 10-2 str up in conf and in 1st place, they are 7-1 str up as a favorite, just 6-6 ats away, and 5-2-1 ats as a favorite but are 8-3-1 ats in conf   i am buying down to -3  i like them to -5  i think they can win by 6 + they just are not turning the ball over much, MSM is just 2-12 str up as a dog this year  i do not see a big easy win here even though i hope for one   

Merrimack -3   Lean to the UNDER if you can get it at 134  

gl 151

BOL today RUM 

going to go with my friend Fla Man again and trust him here , and take UNDER 60.5 TT on Rider  looked at it, Marist held them to 49 pts at Rider in the earlier meeting, so i am thinking they could hold them to Under 60 here, but Rider is averaging 77 pts on offense the last 3 games??? who did they play Highschool teams?  lol   Marist holds teams to 58 pts a game at home  Rider really has no ball movement when on the road as they avg just 9 assist away, 

UNDER 60.5 TT Rider  

Good luck Rum.  

also tonight i am looking at stonehill@ F.dickinson   ok these 2 just played 2 games ago at stonehill in a very close game where stonehill won 58-57 lots of things here, 1st off stonehille had a 8 pt halftime lead 31-23 , and FD outscored them by 7 in 2nd half  now reason i am taking FD here at home, they should have won the game last time, they took 65 shots they were 25/65 and were 5/20 from 3  Stonehill was 22/54  and just 4/15 from 3 and were 10/13 at the line  FD came back in the 2nd half and took a 57-54 lead with just under 2 mins and did not score again and Stone hill won the game on ft's with just seconds left  the reason i didnt post what FD was at the ft line is because they were just 2/2  stonehille took 11 more made 8 more including game winner  now if you do not think FD has that game on their mind your crazy, come back take lead and lose by 1  i think they will give this everything tonight FD played a good game  more offensive boards  fewer to's  more assist  they just never got to the line  even late to take any  they just have to play like that again at home 

F Dickinson ML -130   

Ok,rum.   I’m tailin FD…. Buyer beware.    

@Mskeets

    lol

ok...looking at the william n mary@UNCW  ok 2 good teams for sure, WM just beat them 77-70 , UNCW is 19-3  WM 14-8   off a win UNCW is 7-9=2 ats, at home 4-5-1 ats , as a favorite 7-8-2 ats, both teams have had at least 4 days rest   WM is 5-3 ats on 4+ days rest  UNCW is 3-5-1 ats on 4 + days rest   one thing i always look at and many times it means nothing but anytime the trends are all one way ya have to consider it  UNCW has been off like 7 days  WM like 4  with a rest advantage UNCW is 0-3 ats, with a rest disadvantage WM is 3-2 str up and 2-3 ats  and WM won the 1st meeting 77-70 in that game UNCW had 8 more offensive rebounds, they had 11 more ft attempts, but they had 4 more to's, and 8 fewer assist, they took 11 more ft's and made 6 more, they made 1 more 3 pointer, but made 7 fewer shots WM took 57 and UNCW took 58  and yet they still lost by 7 points, this looks like a tuff one again i mean WM should have lost that game maybe yet they won and looking at UNCW's record i mean they are a good team i do not see any easy play here, does not mean there isnt one....

gl 151

I truly appreciate how you break down games and put in the extra work. Best of luck to you.

Good luck Rum 

Liking that stone /FD under

here is an Interesting game  Jax st @ WKY  these 2 played earlier st Jax st  and jax st won 78-67  in that game, now this may seem like a mistake , but WKY was 22/72 shooting 31% 9/36 from 3 25% and were 14/21 ft 66% now Jax st was 21/38 shooting  55% 9/18 from 3 50% and 27/39 ft 69%  yes Jax st took 18 more ft's and made 13 more  but look at the shots taken>????  WKY took 32 more shots??? thats crazy  Jax st didnt miss many as they shot so well, but WKY also had 24 offensive boards to 5 for Jax st  so what happened was WKY kept missing and getting the rebound and missing again...lol i have never seen a team take 32 more shots and lose by 11 pts  tonight WKY is -4.5 and they have lost 4 of their last 5 but did win their last game ..Jax st won 3 in a row before losing their last game at missouri st ...total here is 140  and Jax st is 7-1 OVER away and are 5-1 OVER as an away dog

again just thinking  

151 

tonight Taking Lemoyne on the road at wagner, i am going ML here but they are -1.5 , Lemoyne is a road team somewhat, and they are in 2nd place in the NorthEast conf, LIU has this conf wrapped up i think at 8-1 Lemoyne is tied in 2nd at 6-4  ...Lemoyne is 5-8 str up away, and are 9-4 ats away, and are 9-2 ats after a loss, as a road favorite they are 3-0 str up and 3-0 ats, its hard to win on the road but to also cover is pretty good , both teams have had 4 days rest, Lemoyne is 5-2 ats on 4+ and Wagner is 4-3 ats also this could be a nice UNDER play i think, only thing is Wagner tends sometimes to get overs as they are 10-7 over this year but lemoyne is 3-8 under after a loss, 3-10 under away, and are 0-3 Under as a road favorite  same as when they always win and cover  total here is 138.5  last time these 2 played it was 69-67 Lemoyne and the total was 144.5 these 2 have played 5 other times and they have had some low totals last year totals were 131.5 and 130.5 both went over last year they scored 72-68  73-61   in 24 the scores were 70-56, and 80-57  last time they played everything was the same except ft's and lemoyne too a lot of them as they were 24/34 and wagner was 7/12  so 17 more made ft's and that was at home  again i am on them because they are away  and favored  

Lemoyne ML   

am liking Tennessee st at home -9.5 vs E Illinois  Tenn st won at EIU 74-70 earlier  and tenn st likes to score, their last 3 games they are avg 84 pts a game and at home they avg 82 a game , EIU averages 59 pts away while giving up 76  now Tenn states TT is 77.5 and at home they shoot so much better than what EIU does away, only thing Tenn st does also give up points last 3 they are giving up 79 a game, and at home they avg 80 a game on defense now i just do not think EIU has the offense to score 70+ tonight  but the OVER 145 here i like too but am wondering what i get from EIU  i think Tenn st will give me 80-83 pts  so i need 66 from EIU and i think they could get that   i am going to try OVER 77.5 TT Tenn st   now i also like them -9  and over 145  .....the line has dropped from tenn st -10.5 to 9.5 that does not worry me really  but i am going to go OVer in this game too at 145  , i am betting on a 82-69 type of game tonight  , so maybe only 4-7 pts over the total   

Tenn st over 77.5 TT  

Over 145 Tenn st   

gl  151

the total in the Denver at ND st game has dropped 5 pts it opened at 160.5 and now is 155.5 and i dont know why , i think an over is possible here, i mean Denver can score points , these 2 played earlier at Denver and ND st won 82-77 ... now Denvers last 15 games they have scored over 72 points everytime but once, that was 2 games ago when they won 69-61 at KC, and they only scored 72 once at s.dakota besides that they have scored at 77 once, and 79 once and all the others are over 80 and they also give up a lot of points , they gave up 61 once and 74 once all the others teams have scored over 82 pts   Denver is 18-2-1 OVER this year  ND st is 14-7 Over  i do not see why this total has dropped, unless they are seeing a ND st blowout win here , i mean ND st's TT is 84.5 and denvers is 71.5  i do not see why ND st does not score 85+ , but they do only avg 79 pts at home but denver gives up 85 on the road , not sure here  i do not mind going against a 5 pt line move, but i also think ND st could win big here   wow  got me thinking 

@RUM151

 Do you know why Merrimack has dropped to 1.5 

Good luck on tonight's plays Rum  

taking Queens -8 at home over Jacksonville  queens won at jax 77-51 now Jacksonville has been a jeckyl hyde team  they just lost to FGCU and they scored just 49 pts, they scored just 60 at C arkansas, they scored 51 vs queens  but they have had games where they score over 70 even 80  but queens can score, this total is 146 and you have Queens who averages 94 pts at home , and at home they shoot the 3 at 40% the 2 at 65% effective shooting is 64% and over all is 52% , they avg 20 assist a game at home, only 9 to's a game at home   they should win this easily  , and i do not see why this does not go over the total here , 

Queens -8  

Teaser with 2 totals i think go over and have mentioned  

over 141.5 queens/Over 150.5 N dakota st    

@accfan1

 no most likely just action  i ended up cashing and taking them at -1.5   i am not switching   i think its becase MSM had beaten them so many times   my only guess  and road fav's struggle maybe thats why  and merrimack does play very close games 

PLAYS 

Merrimack -1.5  

Over 77.5 Tenn st 

Over 145 Tenn st

Lemoyne ML

F dickinson ML 

Under 60.5 TT rider 

UAB ml 

drexel +4.5 

N Florida +7.5 

teaser over 141.5 queens/over 150.5 ND st  

Teaser Drexel+9.5/elon +3.5 

parlay moved lines FGCU+3.5/Lindenwood+3.5  +158 

Parlay Mercer ml/stonybrook ml/UCSB ml/cal baptist ml  +373  

team total parlay  Over 80.5 N.Fl/over 78.5 Mercer/ over 76.5 Queens +445  

gl  151

@RUM151

 I'm going to give that three team total a toss got it at plus 625