Posted:
#1
November: 46-38, +5.20
November Leans: 39-38
December: 27-26, +11.90
December Leans: 22-33
Bradley at George Washington
I think there are a few ways of looking at this matchup. First, two contrasting styles come into play here. Under Ford, it’s pretty obvious that Bradley wants to get a bit more up and down this year, and they have the athletes not only at the guard position, but the post position to do so. Losing Egolf before the year started hurt them experience wise in the post, but it’s actually sped the team up a bit more than I had expected. George Washington is a bit of the opposite. Their offense and the amount of shots they attempt a game are a bit out of line as they aren’t all that fast as they look, but they slow the pace of the game down with their defense. With Ford’s offense at Bradley (very scheme efficient and relying on taking an open shot), should be able to break down the George Washington defense unlike other teams who attempt a shot early in the clock. That’s one way of looking at this game. The other way is simple. George Washington’s defensive effort, granted they have played some better competition, has been absolutely pitiful as of late. Since winning the Holiday tournament at Bowling Green, the effort just hasn’t been there. Will the effort be there tonight? I have no idea, but it’s what’s keeping me off of this one. The pace that Bradley plays at should benefit George Washington’s offensive style, and I expect quite a bit of shots from both in this game. But without the familiarity, you may see two totally different teams take the court tonight, and I’m not willing to invest in that spot. I guess if I had to compare styles from a defensive perspective, GW is pretty similar to Wyoming in the fact that they pressure the heck out of the wings. In that game, Bradley was 0-14 from long distance, and they don’t really have a good, consistent outside shooter. When you don’t have someone that can knock down that shot at a consistent rate, it’s tough to score on defenses that wear you down and force you to move the basketball. I tried making a case for the total but I can see it going both ways. Bradley up-tempo + GW insane amount of shots leads to an over. GW forcing Bradley into long possessions that end with a shot that more than likely isn’t going in leads to an under. Flip a coin here. Bradley’s had a ton of prep time, not sure if that’s a good thing or bad thing for a struggling offense hitting the road to play the defenses of GW and Drexel in a three day span.
Oral Roberts at Gonzaga
Value is probably on ORU here, but just a bad spot. Third game of a four game roady against drastically different styles and a ton of travel probably just not worth it. They match up decent, but probably out-manned with Sacre and Harris. If you were to read anything back in June or July about ORU and the upcoming schedule, most of the hoopla came about the trip to Gonzaga for some reason. Gonzaga this, Gonzaga that all over the place, so the motivation will be there. Just not sure how to gauge for the other crap. Gut says you don’t see the true ORU team if you tune in for this one.
Savannah State at Wisconsin
Why is this game even lined is beyond me. Savannah State came in here in 2007 and scored 32 points, and that might be probable again if Wisconsin can rebound from playing two in-state teams, along with UNLV sandwiched in there prior. I actually project Savannah State to be in the top 1/3 of all the country in terms of a defensive rating. In hasn’t quite showed b/c they’ve played a tough schedule, but it will once they line up with fellow MEAC opponents...
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As bad as UC-Irvine has been, they've only lost by more than 15 four times in the last 3 years. eeekkkk
g/l nropp
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