Sun NCAAB Tips

Iowa is 1-8 SU and 2-7 ATS in the second-round of the NCAA Tournament including 0-7 SU and 1-6 ATS as a No. 6 or worse seed.

Thanks for info brother. Leaning duke ATS as well for me. Also, Tennessee I feel like Is possibly the best team to cover today. They’re a well stacked team. Not to forget they were #1 at one point as well. 

Virginia was down 14 in first half Friday, cut it to 6 by half, won going away; Cavaliers won 10 of their last 11 games- they played four starters 36:00 Friday. Starting C Salt tweaked an ankle Friday, but says he’ll play here. Cavaliers won 10 of their last 11 games overall, are experience team #203 that plays slowest tempo in country. Cavaliers have #5 eFG% defense in country. Oklahoma is 5-8 in its last 13 games; they raced out to 12-0 lead vs Ole Miss Friday, jogged to an easy win. Sooners played nine guys 10:00+ Friday; they’re experience team #45. Oklahoma beat Notre Dame by 5 in December, its only ACC game this season. Last four years, #1-seeds are 6-9 vs spread in their 2nd round game.

Duke was only up 4 at half over North Dakota State Friday, then ran away in 2nd half; they used three guys 30:00+. Blue Devils covered four of their last five second round games. Duke is 13-1 outside ACC, with only loss to Gonzaga at Maui Classic. Blue Devils are shooting only 30.5% on arc; how will they attack 7-6 center Fall? UCF played three guys 35:00+ in surprisingly easy win over VCU Friday; Knights didn’t score for first 6:35, then made 10 shots in row after that. UCF is experience team #21 that plays slow (#309) tempo- they’ve won 11 of 13 games outside AAC. Knights are #20 experience team that has #13 defensive eFG%. UCF coach Dawkins played/coached at Duke.

Iowa fell behind Cincinnati 18-5 Friday, then scored 48 points in 2nd half of its 79-72 win. Hawkeyes are just 3-6 in their last nine games; they played three guys 32:00+ Friday, but made 11-22 on arc and shot 58% inside arc. Iowa is 12-0 outside Big 14, but against NC schedule #330. Iowa gets 22.6% of its points on foul line (#18). Tennessee is just 7-4 in its last 11 games after starting season 23-1; Vols are experience team #53 (#3 in MC); that shoots 55.7% inside arc- their eFG% is #21 on offense, #39 on defense. Tennessee was down a hoop to Colgate with 10:52 left Friday, won by 7. Red Raiders made made 15-29 on arc. Since 2011, #10-seeds who win their first round game are 9-1 vs spread in 2nd round.

North Carolina was down 38-33 at half to Iona Friday; is that a red flag? UNC won nine of its last ten games; they start three seniors and play #5 pace. Carolina played three starters 31:00+ in Friday’s win. Tar Heels split their last six 2nd round games; they’re 3-5 vs spread in last eight. UNC is 2-0 vs Pac-12 teams this year, beating Stanford by 18, UCLA by 16. Washington is 5-3 in its last eight games after starting season 22-5; Huskies are experience team #43 (#1 in MC) that forces turnovers 24.3% of time- they spanked Utah State Friday, forcing 21 turnovers (+6) and making 10-17 on arc- they played three guys 30:00+. Last four years, #1-seeds are 6-9 vs spread in their 2nd round game.

Texas Tech won 10 of its last 11 games; Red Raiders are #105 experience team that forces turnovers 23% of time, and has #2 defensive eFG% in country. Tech played four starters 31:00+ in Friday’s 72-57 win over Northern Kentucky- they led by 4 at half. Red Raiders are 13-1 outside Big X, but vs NC schedule #320. Buffalo whacked their old coach when they beat Arizona State by 17 Friday; Bulls scored 1.23 ppp vs ASU- they won their last 13 games, are 13-1 outside MAC (#116 NC sked), with only loss to Marquette. Bulls won in OT at West Virginia in their only Big X game. Buffalo is experience team #14 that is 6-1 vs top 100 teams this season. Since 2010, when #3-6 seeds play in second round, teams are both 6-6 vs spread.

Ohio State lost seven of its last 11 games; they’re experience team #252 that started season 12-1, mainly because they played #245 non-conference schedule. Buckeyes played two guys 39/40:00 in Friday’s 62-59 win over Iowa State. OSU opened season with win over Cincinnati of AAC. Houston is 32-3 after losing AAC title game last week; Cougars are experience team #145 that has best defensive eFG% in country. Houston waxed Georgia St by 29 Friday; only one of their guys played more than 28:00. Cougars are experience team #145 ; they’re 12-3 vs top 100 teams this season. Of last 11 #11-seeds who won first round game, six of them covered in 2nd round- only team that didn’t cover was favored.

This will be 13th 2nd round game with 13-seed vs 12-seed. Favorite was 9-3 vs spread in first 12. Cal-Irvine won its last 16 games; they’re experience team #44 that plays pace #296- they start three juniors, two seniors. Anteaters are 3-3 vs top 100 teams; Friday was their first-ever NCAA tourney win. Irvine played eight guys 11:00+ Friday; no one played more than 31:00. Oregon won its last nine games after being 15-12 at one point this season; they held five of their last six opponents under 55 points. Oregon’s defensive eFG% is #21 in country; they held eight of last nine opponents to 61 or fewer points. Ducks are #304 experience team whose best player hasn’t played since Dec 12.

Last five years, when a #4-seed plays a #12-seed in this round, favorite is 5-1 vs spread. Virginia Tech’s star PG Robinson played 28:00 in Friday’s win over Saint Louis; he looked gimpy at end of game. Hokies are 8-5 in last 13 games after starting season 16-3; they’re shooting 39.4% on arc this season (#9). Tech played two guys 36:00 in Friday’s win; they forced 18 turnovers and outscored VCU 22-10 on foul line. Liberty beat UCLA by 15, Georgia State by 26; they lost by 10 at Georgetown. Flames won 19 of their last 21 games; they’re experience team #122 (#30 in MC) that makes 56.7% of its 2’s, has #12 eFG% in country. Liberty made 12-25 on arc in its upset of Miss State Friday, playing three guys 33:00+; they also made 12-25 on arc.

Trend Report

Iowa @ Tennessee
Iowa
Iowa is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games
Iowa is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 games
Tennessee
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Tennessee's last 5 games
Tennessee is 21-4 SU in its last 25 games


Wichita State @ Clemson
Wichita State
Wichita State is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
Wichita State is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
Clemson
Clemson is 19-4 SU in its last 23 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Clemson's last 5 games at home


Washington @ North Carolina
Washington
Washington is 20-4 SU in its last 24 games
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Washington's last 15 games
North Carolina
North Carolina is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games
North Carolina is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games

Xavier @ Texas
Xavier
Xavier is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games
Xavier is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Texas
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Texas's last 5 games
Texas is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games at home


Central Florida @ Duke
Central Florida
Central Florida is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Central Florida's last 5 games
Duke
Duke is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Duke's last 7 games


Buffalo @ Texas Tech
Buffalo
Buffalo is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Buffalo's last 6 games
Texas Tech
Texas Tech is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games
Texas Tech is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games

Liberty @ Virginia Tech
Liberty
No trends to report
Virginia Tech
Virginia Tech is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing Liberty
Virginia Tech is 18-7 SU in its last 25 games


Harvard @ North Carolina State
Harvard
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Harvard's last 9 games on the road
Harvard is 13-4 SU in its last 17 games
North Carolina State
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of North Carolina State's last 5 games
North Carolina State is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home


Oklahoma @ Virginia
Oklahoma
No trends to report
Virginia
Virginia is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games
Virginia is 17-7 ATS in its last 24 games

Ohio State @ Houston
Ohio State
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Ohio State's last 8 games
Ohio State is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
Houston
Houston is 17-2 SU in its last 19 games
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Houston's last 12 games


Nebraska @ TCU
Nebraska
Nebraska is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing TCU
Nebraska is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
TCU
TCU is 14-4 SU in its last 18 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of TCU's last 7 games


UC Irvine @ Oregon
UC Irvine
UC Irvine is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
UC Irvine is 10-1-1 ATS in its last 12 games
Oregon
Oregon is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Oregon is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games

You give excellent poignant information in a sea of too much information these days, thanks for isolating the recent trends and performance to cap these games.  Are you making any other plays besides LIBERTY 1st Half and DUKE under?