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Sports Investing Philosophy 101...

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Posted: #26

Smack...i have bookmarked this thread and will read it later and refresh it over time. an_cheers

Also, i would add that covers has a few hidden gem cappers all over this site...the trick is to find them, befriend them, and learn from them...everyone here can learn how to improve at sports capping once they remove all ego driven motivation, and accept the humility of taking a total misread losing wager, amd trying to understand what went wrong, if anything, so that we dont repeat the same mistakes in the future.

Great thread buddy...a lot of wisdom will come out of this space over time. 

MAGAm Yisrael Chai
 
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Posted: #27

DAMN GOOD WRITE UP AND TRUTH BE TOLD BY YOU!!! 

 

an_cheers

 
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Posted: #28
Appreciate all the comments, gentlemen...

If any little part of this benefits anyone even a little bit, it is well worth the time and effort...

I absolutely hate to see the new guys make all the same mistakes that I did...history repeats itself way too often in every area of life...maybe we can slow it down a bit here...

In this age of data collection and tracking...if you don't think the books track each and every player in multiple metrics and ways...you are fooling yourself...it's just one small step to customize lines for individual players and I personally believe it happens on a daily basis on select players in select ways...

If you are not aware of it...you won't even be watching for it...

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Posted: #29
On 5D I punch a Line IN ...and all of a sudden...espec 2H its a diff line and I hit the button submit.....DING there a hook on it I didnt think I agreed to....busted me a few times till I wised up and refreshed and started all over and got thee expected line....uhhh yep here....




 
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Posted: #30

Very well written and I couldn't agree more.  As much I enjoy capping, I'm a somewhat undisciplined better who can go on tilt and as such didn't place a single wager this season on CBB.  My heterosexual life partner, Mikey, asked me if that helped me cap better this season and I truly believe it did because it took emotion out of the equation and ss smack said, you are you're own worst enemy and letting your emotions dictate your wagers will only hurt your bankroll.  Being self-aware of when you're on tilt and disciplined betting is paramount to having any level of success.

A post like this has been needed for quite some time, I applaud you for the time and effort that has gone into it.  Bravo.

an_clap

 

 
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Posted: #31
Parlays, Teasers and other Exotic bets...

In a single word...bad...
A bad idea for a beginner gambler...why? 

These bets are more difficult to win because the require you to pick more than one winner to win the bet...two, three, four...or more...all must win/cover for the bet to pay out...

They do pay out better odds but the books have no problem offering these payouts to the exotic player as they know these players are often gamblers and will lose much more than they win over time...

BUT...and I know this...exotics are hard to resist...

If you do choose to play them...a few important guidelines and suggestions are in order...

Look for good money lines and make a money line parlay wager...a money line wager means that the teams you select only have to win the game...there is no point spread to cover...many times this is the best choice for a parlay wager...

Start with two teams...the more you play, the harder it is...pick your two best wagers and then...

Drop your standard wager DOWN...if you would normally have played these two teams for 1% of your bankroll...play the exotic with half that amount...or a quarter... .5% or .25%...if you do hit it, the extra odds on the payout will make up for the lower wagered amount...

The more teams you play, the lower your wager amount and risk should be...

Again, bankroll management MUST be in play at all times and DOUBLY so with exotics...don't get carried away and NEVER fall in love with a wager so much that it takes you out of your limits...

Finally, track your exotic wager record...it's not hard to do...you should actually be tracking all of your wagers and win/loss records to determine if you are sticking to your bankroll management plan and if not, where are you making your mistakes..

If you are honest with yourself, you will see with your tracking that exotic bets are much harder to hit and your winning percentage vs straight bets will be much lower...

In summary...stick to straight bets as a beginner and build your bankroll...take a shot at an exotic on rare occasion when you feel you have a high +EV opportunity with 2 teams...emphasize money line parlays at first as the teams selected only have to win the game, not cover a point spread...

And...should you take a big shot and win a 4, 5 or 6 teamer...immediately buy a lottery ticket for $1 as you might be an odds on favorite to win something huge that day...






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Posted: #32

?? thanks smacksmiter

 
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Posted: #33

I have made all those mistakes

 
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Posted: #34
Fine info...you should indeed consider writing a book...definitely a market for it with the advent of legalized sports betting.

My .02 (and I focus on baseball):

True "investing" in sports is making season wins bets. This is where the bettor takes a long term approach to capitalizing his money.

Betting day to day is not much different than day trading in stock market parlance...lots of excitement but few are successful at it. There's quite a difference between day trading and investing in the stock market, ditto for sports betting.

The long term approach has always been more successful for me, both in the market and with sports.

BOL,
RT2
 
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Posted: #35
So wait. basically you are telling people that IF and ONLY IF they can be 100% disciplined they MIGHT get away with $50/week for dinner for two on an Saturday night?

Why then spending all the time capping, watching games, frustration? Isn't it better to just find a part time job - 15-20 hrs a week and you be actually making $400-$500/week? With much less work!

I am in yhis to find a way to make at least $1000/week with NO effort! Where I can do this while grocery shopping and still make at least $1000/week! 

If I know that will never happen. I'd stop today !

Dinner for two a week after pulling your hair out all week ! Come on man ! 
 
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Posted: #36
Quote Originally Posted by Mancity:

So wait. basically you are telling people that IF and ONLY IF they can be 100% disciplined they MIGHT get away with $50/week for dinner for two on an Saturday night?

Why then spending all the time capping, watching games, frustration? Isn't it better to just find a part time job - 15-20 hrs a week and you be actually making $400-$500/week? With much less work!

I am in yhis to find a way to make at least $1000/week with NO effort! Where I can do this while grocery shopping and still make at least $1000/week! 

If I know that will never happen. I'd stop today !

Dinner for two a week after pulling your hair out all week ! Come on man ! 

I do apologize for any confusion...I am definitely not saying that you can't make significant money...this is a primer for a beginner with tips on how to preserve bankroll, build bankroll and avoid pitfalls so common to beginners...

Indeed, I painted a picture where you could progress to "luxury items"...

I have many, many friends who make their living sports investing...they are the exception to the rule but there are people who have figured it out...

This thread is not for them...

And maybe not for you...

Best of luck...

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Posted: #37

look up "bettingresource sports betting money management" on google and read that article. you use sports betting portfolio just like your stock portfolio using that method.

 
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Posted: #38
I have traded stocks and invested in them.
Daily sports wagering IS daytrading.
Long term -finding' spots to make wagers is more investing.

Do both if you have the time to research the daily grind and look aheads; and if you have the bankroll.
Again awesome job here Smack
 
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Posted: #39

smack it would be awesome if you organized your advice into a simple blog. ur spending the time anyway, might as well monetize it with referral banners to online books. for a day's worth of writing and setting up a site you could be making passive income for years. A domain name costs $10, hosting per yr is trivial as well.

I have a few sites I made in about a week's time and they bring in referral commissions 24/7 and I also have a saas that is pretty much auto-pilot as well. No pulling hairs over possibility of losing for me. just passive income.

 

Like someone else stated earlier, the legalization is going to bring a lot more traffic than ever...

 

 
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Posted: #40

RESPECT your money

LOVE IT..   when you do not  that's when you are careless and lose

 
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Posted: #41

Superb post, Smack. Major kudos!

 
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Posted: #42
All of this is so true.  I am truly my own worst enemy.  Luckily I bet small relative to income.
 
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Posted: #43

an_cheers

 
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Posted: #44
Quote Originally Posted by hundredx:

smack it would be awesome if you organized your advice into a simple blog. ur spending the time anyway, might as well monetize it with referral banners to online books. for a day's worth of writing and setting up a site you could be making passive income for years. A domain name costs $10, hosting per yr is trivial as well.

I have a few sites I made in about a week's time and they bring in referral commissions 24/7 and I also have a saas that is pretty much auto-pilot as well. No pulling hairs over possibility of losing for me. just passive income.

 

Like someone else stated earlier, the legalization is going to bring a lot more traffic than ever...

 


That is a great idea...

I will look for some time to get that done hopefully in the near future...

Thanks!

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Posted: #45

HMMM! Look up Huey Mahl's percentage of bankroll system (Kelly Criterion) or Mike Lee's booklet "In the long run".  All the same ideas & beliefs established many, many years ago!!!!  They were the originators of these ideas.  

 
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Posted: #46
Quote Originally Posted by sportsfom:

HMMM! Look up Huey Mahl's percentage of bankroll system (Kelly Criterion) or Mike Lee's booklet "In the long run".  All the same ideas & beliefs established many, many years ago!!!!  They were the originators of these ideas.  


I never claimed to be the originator...

Simply my experience and review of important points for beginners as I see it...

Thanks for your observation and recommendations...

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Posted: #47
 
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Posted: #48
Bottom line is this......Words dont teach, only experience does. Ive said this many many times. If you want to truly be successful at betting sports long term,  youre gonna have to lose a considerable chunk of cash in the beginning to realize what works and what doesn't. Theres no way around it. 90% of the posters on this site dont bet with real money...they just post records and units etc etc. Betting with real money is a psychological game that can ONLY be understood using live ammunition aka real money.
Trust me. 
Betting a 1000.00$ on a game is an entirely different mentality !! As opposed to make believe units or what have you.. that posters use hiding behind their computer.
 
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Posted: #49
Wanna know...the number 1 reason sports bettors fail long term?
Notice i said long term.
Absolutely anyone can get lucky off the bat and win right away. The trick is be successful long term...ahhhh there's the rub.
The reason why almost all bettors fail long term is that they bet too much per wager. They can't control their emotions during losing AND winning streaks.
 
 
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Posted: #50
Everybody thinks the foremost issue is ....you just gotta pick winners....nope, its money mgt. Picking winners isnt that tough. A reasonablely trained monkey could pick winners. Management of your bankroll is the essence of this whole game. Figure out how to control it and chances are youll be successful.
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