Sharps all over these 2 plays in tonights action

I like your basketball team and your football coach but you, my friend, are an idiot.

go page the taliban and kill some innocent woman while you are at it

I don't give a fuck what you think about me

I just kill the fuggin' worthless, lying Taliban.  That is my job.  As for you I have no real beef except that you can't spell.  Doesn't really make any difference to me.  Just playin'.  If you want to kill women, join the Army...HeHeHe 

you are right...I cannot spell for shit

be safe over there

Thanks man!!  This is my vacation.  Talking to MoFo's like you.  Go RockChalk Jay Hawk.  Kansas wins it all this year. 

I assume you are making your plays based on the line movments here in Vegas???  By following how the lines move you can tell where the money is coming in on, this is also a fairly common practice so there should be nothing new here unless Nickel has anything to add...He is correct though in that significant line movements, either when the number is released or leading right up to game time, are largely influenced by significant influx of money on a given side...in Nickel's terms the move is showing the "money" or "sharps" getting in on that side.  This is not always the case though...large or sudden line movements don't necessarily mean the "sharps" are on a side.  You also have to take into account much more than just line movements as well.  There are obviously many Pros & syndicates out there and they are not always on the same side and place varying amounts of wagers, you never know where the money is coming or how much (only the books have that info & they adjust accordingly)…the point is that he is not offering “guaranteed plays”, more so offering info/opinion based on where the money is going…critique & correct me need be, just my view on this topic. 

Just a couple of recent examples of how this works & doesn’t work.

Tonights BYU/WF and Mich/Ind…BYU was seeing 61% of the action to begin with and the line moved ½ pt which by the outcome of the game looks like normal line movement (BYU lost this matchup).  Indiana was seeing 75% following, the line moved ½ pt most spots up to –10…they rolled Michigan…I don’t see your following the Wolverines because of that movement.

Last nights LSU/OSU OVER 47.5…this line opened at 50 and had the UN pounded on it dropping it down to 47 where it stayed for about a week before game day…on game day the line moved ½ pt up to 47.5 where it stayed and hit OVER…if you were following the money you’d say there was large money going in on the OVER right before the game, causing that ½ pt move…the public I believe was on the OVER as well last night.  Anyway, so that is successful example.

Here is a really fun example….earlier this CFB season Oregon was undefeated and traveling to Arizona as something like a 13 point favorite early in the week.  The public was hammering the Ducks, something like 81% if I remember correctly…by game time the line had dropped to 10.5 or 11 most spots while Oregon was still seeing just as much action.  Now usually when a favorite is seeing all the action the line moves upward accordingly, not so in this case, the line slowly dropped a little.  This type of line movement is usually the one you look for, where the line moves the opposite of the public…that is a nice indicator of some large cash or “sharps” getting in on a side.  And what happened in the game??? Dixon goes down early on some freak play and the Wildcats romped, covered & the books closed up happy that night…a very nice example of “some one” knowing some “info”.  I hope I didn’t confuse too much, just trying to maybe shed some light on the thinking behind this thread…let me know if Im way off Nickel.  With enough discussion this could be a fairly successful thread.